Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    No...thats the two little non events that we have had/will get tomorrow. Those are little wimpy storms that usually drop between 1 to 3"...but are followed by very very cold air. Alberta Clippers form in Central Canada and drop down through the USA with a general route of...Minny, Michigan..Ill. Ohio...Pa..New Jersey.

    Yesterday and the little snow we get Saturday are Alberta Clippers..sometimes they can redevelop much larger storms off the coast but that will not happen.

    The big storm I posted above is the one off the coast of Oregon, California. Hit that link and check it out...it has all the visuals of a hurricane.

    That storm will do a west to east swing till about Arkansas and then go Northeast through western PA. and POSSIBLY redevelop another large storm off the coast. If it does..you get snow first..then sleet, freezing rain...rain..and then back to snow.

    If it doesnt and stays as the primary storm, you get a huge Ice Storm and hope it just turns to rain...because if the cold air stays locked in...we are f'ed..big time. Major ice storm. Someone will get the major ice storm..many will get a huge snow storm.
     
  2. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    Jay, you certainly do not bring the fun... except for that pats-hater guy, but he ain't necessarily right in the head.

    Do you have an educated guess when this storm will start slamming the Boston area? I know its probably soon, but I'm scheduled to drive into work for Wednesday and if the storm hits I might as well get a room at the Radisson.
     
  3. pats-hater

    pats-hater Active Member

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    Another New Englander who is scared of a little snow.

    If you know how to deal with New England winters, you do just fine.

    You're probably the guy that forgets where the gas pedal is every time the ground gets wet.

    I can't stand you guys.
     
  4. Dierking

    Dierking Well-Known Member

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    They have those on the walks at the campus my wife works at. Pretty sharp.
     
  5. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    Hahaha... first of all I'm not a New Englander. I'm just living here for the time being. And I cut my teeth dealing with the snow in Upstate NY, so I know what it takes to deal with the snow, driving or otherwise. :)

    Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the New England clowns that drive like its a circus out there. If it were a matter of just me and mother nature, and a snowy day on the highway I would be fine. It's the thousands of dumb-asses clogging 93, 95, and 128 that are the problem. :up:
     
  6. Sundayjack

    Sundayjack pǝʇɔıppɐ ʎןןɐʇoʇ
    Moderator

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    Balls.....
     
  7. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    Snow is one thing... massive ice storms are another. Downed power lines, severe tree damage, frozen vehicles with doors that won't open with a couple of inches of ice freezing everything solid not to mention the number of slip and fall injuries and auto accidents. Ice storms can be incredibly destructive.

    I remember one storm in Quebec maybe a decade ago. All the high power lines operated by Quebec Hydro went down, including those huge steel power transmission towers. Parts of Quebec had no power for weeks, some for almost a month and we get some of our power from them.

    A storm like that could wipe out all services that use telephone poles for weeks, potentially. Granted, that's worst case scenario, but from the sound of it, this could be a storm like that. I plan on stocking up on non perishable foods, plenty of batteries with flashlights and radios. Loss of heating is a scary one though, broken and burst pipes would be a disaster.

    Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam...and beans! Maybe some Vienna sausages. :)
     
  8. pats-hater

    pats-hater Active Member

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    We had a major ice storm here 2 years ago. My don was out of school the entire month of December.
     
  9. ........

    ........ Trolls

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    Oh man, I hope he didn't spend that whole month ordering hits on people.
     
  10. pats-hater

    pats-hater Active Member

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    Lol. I was on the chairlift using my phone. It's bright and I guess I hit d instead of s.

    On the lift now.
     
  11. ........

    ........ Trolls

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    You're absolutely pathetic if you're spending the day with your don and sitting on TGG too. How about, I don't know, a conversation with the little Brando?
     
  12. BadgerOnLSD

    BadgerOnLSD Banned

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    pats-hater and Don went snowboarding together?
     
  13. pats-hater

    pats-hater Active Member

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    He's not with his old daddy. He's with friends from school at this point and I'm solo.

    Weekends are tough because his entire school is here.
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Well possibly a little good news in a weird way.\

    Latest models still showed a storm..but with a more westerly path...which would allow milder temps to hit the east coast. For example...temps in DC up to the upper 40's lower 50's.

    If thats the case...starts out as snow..brief icing...and then rain. Now thats for the east coast including Boston. More inland...much more ice..someone is getting an ice storm and many inland getting a lot of snow.

    Rain? Talk about flooding...you cant win with this one. Wednesday will be the ugliest day of all...just dont count on poor road conditions for the Boston area yet.

    There is a met I follow who is dead on and isnt buying these models..but all the models swung towards major flooding...not major snow for the coast.
     
  15. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    So... Jay... what's yer latest guess? Floods in Jersey? That much rain along with snow melt could be pretty freakin bad, national news type bad. You sticking with going against the models and thinking the snow/rain line stays further south? Who gets the ice storms?
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    tbj,

    Here is the summary from the NWS. As you can see...they are all over the place with their forecasts. The difference of how long the cold air fights off the warm air advancement is the key...and quite honestly...I have no idea.

    Bottom line is there is no way we are not going to get screwed no matter what happens because snow is snow...ice is ice...and the best case scenario of rain would cause, as you mentioned with all the snow pack, major major major flooding.

    Here is what they say:

    A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY...WITH ITS
    PARENT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE
    INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    SNOW LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
    TRI-STATE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
    CHANGE INTO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
    COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CHANCE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
    WEDNESDAY...WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
    PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND
    NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL
    SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
    INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM...AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL
    WORK IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THERE
    WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE CHANGE TO A
    WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT.

    When they say "IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THERE
    WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE CHANGE TO A
    WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT" they mean at least 3 to 4" of snow before the ice..but are not discounting at least 6", which fits the criteria of a Winter Storm Warning.

    Like I have said numerous times...I just read models like the rest of the people there...not an expert...but there is an ole weather saying that snow follows snow..so a colder solution would make more sense to me. That would mean a decent hit of snow + a decent hit of ice= we are screwed.

    You are in Long Island right? I would guess if any place goes rain...you do. I havent checked any models tonite but will check now. This is an historic storm in the sense of the amount of states/people it will affect. Cant remember a storm that will basically screw so many people from West Coast to East Coast.
     
  17. Wut?

    Wut? Well-Known Member

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    So its not a big deal like blizzard number one for NYC?
     
  18. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    It could be... if it's all rain, subway tunnels and roads could flood combined with snow melt. Figure on lots of flooded basements. If it's all snow, which is unlikely, I don't think it can dump 2 feet on us, but I'm more concerned about the ice personally.

    I am guessing that parts of NJ and southern upstate NY will have flooding the likes of which we haven't ever seen. The Ramapo river could swell to the point it will wash away houses and sweep across some major highways.
     
  19. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    I just took a look at the storm drains near my house. Snow and ice piled up 5 and 6 feet high over them. No way to shovel them out and clear them. If the drains clog... there are going to be a lot of flooded basements around here.

    I wonder if the neighbors and I can hire a plow to get the drains cleared. This could be bad.... very bad.
     
  20. IATA

    IATA Trolls

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    Bleh. 15-20cm tuesday/wednesday.
     

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