Getting Defensive: It is time for the Jets to start over on defense

I now many people will disagree that it is too radical to completely blow up the Jets defense. That being said, that is exactly what the Jets need to do.

The Jets need to move forward with a plan to get younger, faster and cheaper in the front seven if they want to win the Super Bowl.

I know this is probably counter-intuitive, but realistically there is actually very little the Jets can do at this point to make the team better on offense. The incremental growth from the Jets offense will simply be a by-product of Sanchez’s continued development.
Provided the Jets give him the same or similar type weapons – re-sign Holmes and Edwards, bring LT back (provided he moves into a Marcus Allen 3rd down back role), and look to transition a new RT – the Jets offense will get better because Sanchez is better.

The same cannot be said for the defense:

The key position on the Jets defensive line is the DT. The Jets can get away with JAGs at the DE spots because in the Ryan 3-4, the ends are only required tie-up those offensive lineman in their gaps. I don’t expect the Jets to spend any significantly high picks or premium dollars on the DE spot. However, if a true 3-4 nose tackle is available in the draft or FA, the Jets will line up the truck to make a play. Pouha played well in Jenkins’ absence and developed into a very solid player. If the Jets can bring a draft pick + cut/resign Jenkins to a favorable short term project, I would expect them to go that route. As for the ends, I highly doubt Ellis will return as he will be demanding more money than the Jets are willing to pay. I think the Jets believe that between Devito, Pouha (provided another DT is brought in + cut/resigning Jenkins) and a combination of Dixon, Gilbert and Pitoitua can hold up the d-line without spending too much money.

The LB spot is an interesting dilemma for the Jets. Despite signing Bart Scott and Calvin Pace to big contracts, the LB core is a bit old and needs some fresh legs. The fact that Gholston never panned out has hurt the team, but that problem will be over once he is released this off-season. David Harris’ impending FA is also problematic as he really is only a 2-down ILB and is a bit of a liability in pass coverage. Jason Taylor will be one and down this year – despite some flashes, it is clear his tank is empty. Bryan Thomas, despite the fact the Jets should have drafted Ed Reed (he was the best safety available in the draft and the Jets had a safety need at the time), has turned into a nice player and clearly found a role on this team as a 3-4 LB. The problem with the LB core is where the money is at. The Jets really don’t have anyone waiting in the wings for any of the these players and had to band-aid with Taylor after missing badly with Gholston.

In the secondary, I don’t think the Jets will look at Aso because he will be too expensive and then Jets will have tied up $20 million worth of cap money with bookend CBs that no one will throw at. I think the Jets will re-sign Cromartie and look for a play making safety in the draft. Cro will come much cheaper than Aso, allow them to sign Holmes/Edwards AND the Jets will then be able to get a safety that isn’t a liability in coverage. That will allow Cro to play more bump and run (which is what he excels at) and not have to worry about playing off and getting burned for a big play because the safety can’t get over in time. Leonhard will come back with Smith and Wilson made some nice strides the last part of the season and playoffs and could look to move into the slot CB. I can’t envision a scenario where Pool comes back as the Jets need someone who can match up in coverage with deep help against WRs and TEs in the middle.

This is where I think the Jets should get radical:

#1 – The Jets need to CUT Gholston, Thomas, Taylor, Scott, and Jenkins. They shouldn’t resign Pool or Coleman, but may consider bringing back Eric Smith. Cutting Pace makes no sense cap wise as there is no savings and he still is a productive player, though a little overpaid (he will clearly need to re-negotiate in 2012 or he is a goner then). Simply put, the money dictates these other players need to go as their production is not worth the cap hit. The biggest problem is with Scott – he talks a big game but makes ZERO impact plays. He was terrible in the AFCG against the Steelers giving up 4 missed tackles against Mendenhal and he has made no impact plays in his 2 years with the Jets (only 2 sacks, 1 FF and no INTs) whereas Harris (who is 3 years younger) made 8.5 sacks, 3 FFs and 2 INTs playing right next to him. By cutting these players the Jets can free up over $13 million in cap room.

#2 – The Jets need to resign Harris, which as he is a RFA it will be a bit easier to accomplish than it otherwise would be. If they can cut/resign Jenkins to a much lower contract, he could help as an early down rotational guy on the DL. The Jets need to dedicate this draft to bringing in an ILB, OLB, DT and Safety. The Jets need to go defense early and often all draft day to bring in speed at those 3 positions and size at DT.

#3 – The Jets need to commit to a youth movement and potentially deal with 5 new starters on defense: at both DE positions, ILB, OLB, and safety position. Will this impact the Jets defense? Sure they may not be statistically better than they were the past 2 years with all these young/new players, but the reality is that come playoff time the added infusion of speed and youth will be a god-send. They need to improve the middle of the field defense which bringing a safety, ILB and DT will do, without necessarily resorting to scheming all the time. The fact of the matter is that the reason the Jets played as well as they did against the Colts, Pats and Steelers (in the 2nd half) – was a credit to Ryan’s defensive scheming hiding the warts. The Steelers exposed the Jets in that first half of the game when the D-Line go pushed around and Scott did an especially abysmal job at stopping the run which was compounded by the lack of an OLB killer speed pass rusher in taking out Big Ben. The Jets were so overly concerned giving up the big play in the first half against the Steelers that they gave up a bunch of much smaller players which did more damage than one long Mike Wallace TD catch could have caused. The Jets got away with that against the Colts and Pats because they don’t have the run game to make the Jets pay. The Steelers did and the Jets paid the price in the first half when they got too far behind to come back.

 

The problem is that when Scott needs to make plays he doesn't. Despite all the playing time the guy gets on the field - even when Harris isn't on the field - he still doesn't make those plays. For a guy riding shotgun, he gets paid an awful lot of money not to produce.

I agree with signing an OLB - and they guy I would like is Woodley, but he is going to cost too much and I can't envision a scenario where the Steelers let him go. ILBs are cheaper and the Jets can look to get some speed OLBs in the draft. Plus, the Jets would be better served to sign Edwards/Holmes with that money vice keeping Scott around and signing Woodley. It is easier for younger players to make impact plays at the OLB position (Gholston being the exception that proves the rule) vice drafting a WR that takes 2-3 years to develop. It is a heck of alot easier on a defense when they have the lead and need to rush the passer who has to throw.

I agree about Pace - he would be even more effective if they actually had a threat on the opposite side of the defense. The problem is that Thomas, although a solid player, isn't that guy and isn't worth the money they are paying him. They could get similar production from another guy at a lower pay rate, thus freeing up more money.

 

Plus there is no way that Harris is going to get $10 million a year.
He may top off at $8 million per year max, but my guess is something like $7-$7.5 million per year.

You pay the guy that makes the plays, not the guy riding shotgun with a big mouth and no play to back it up. The Jets would be better served putting a rookie LB with Harris than keeping both Harris and Scott for a combined total of over $14 million per year (Scott at $6.5 million next year + Harris at assumed $8 million next year). Plus factor in Thomas at $3.7 million next year and Pace at $7 million and the Jets would have a $24 million LB corp -the problem is they aren't going to get $24 million worth of production. Cutting Pace isn't an option this year, and Thomas + Scott save almost $6 million on the 2011 cap if they go. This is a no-brainer and the right move to make when you look at the totality of the team's salary cap structure.

 

You can't have a situation where 20% of the teams salary cap structure is locked up in 4 players that aren't producing. I understand what Bart's role is but he is overpaid for his production and when it mattered most, in the AFCG, he missed 4 big tackles - something he is paid to do and didn't. As for his grading out as the best ILB against the run, if you have a link I would love to see those stats - and most importantly compare that to his peers and their salaries.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Bringing these same 4 guys back isn't the answer. Moving on without BT is easy because he is on the last year of his contract. The Jets would take almost a $2 million cap by cutting Pace and I just don't see that happening. That leaves Harris and Scott. Harris is the playmaker who makes the big plays in a similar role as Ray Lewis (I am not saying that Harris is better or even as good as Lewis, just that they play the same role). Scott is an UDFA who Rex developed into the player he is. If you have confidence in your coaching staff, then it is easy to see that the easier guy to replace is Scott as the coaches have already done that before. The Ravens haven't seemed to miss a beat and they replaced Scott this year with another UDFA in Jameel McClain who had almost the same level of production at a fraction of the cost.