http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2010/insider/news/story?id=6033113 The New York Jets won 11 regular-season games despite quarterback Mark Sanchez ranking near the bottom of the league in most passing statistics. They've now pulled off a pair of playoff upsets, winning on the road against the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots, largely because Sanchez's numbers have improved across the board. Why has Sanchez looked so good the past two weeks, and what can the Pittsburgh Steelers do to put a stop to the Jets' streak? We can answer those questions with data from Football Outsiders' game charting project. Our game charters have recorded the number of pass-rushers on almost every play of the season (we're still missing a half here and there from the last weeks of the year), and we can measure the average gain each team has produced against each rush package it has faced. We can also measure Success Rate, the percentage of plays that gain meaningful yardage toward a first down. A 15-yard play on third-and-20 will boost a team's average gain, but it will still lead to a punt and can hardly be considered a success unless it improves field goal range. Against three or four pass-rushers, the Jets averaged 6.3 yards per play (19th in the league) with a Success Rate of 42 percent (23rd) -- not very good but not devastatingly bad in either category. Against five pass-rushers, their average gain fell to 5.8 yards per play (though their ranking actually climbed a few spots to 17th) and their Success Rate held steady at 42 percent (ranking 20th) -- not much difference there. When opponents big blitzed with six or more pass-rushers, the Jets were doomed. They averaged only 3.9 yards per play (28th), and their 28 percent Success Rate was only a few percentage points ahead of the Carolina Panthers for the worst in the NFL. The key to beating Sanchez: throwing the house at him. The Jets were fortunate to open the postseason with games against Indianapolis and New England, two of football's most blitz-averse defenses. The Colts big blitzed on 3 percent of opponents' pass plays all season, less often than anyone except the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins. The Patriots were much more aggressive, big blitzing 7 percent of the time, although that still ranked 21st in football. Given time to read defenses, Sanchez was at his best, completing 61 percent of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt, up from 55 percent and 6.5 yards per pass during the regular season. This week Sanchez and the Jets play Pittsburgh, a team with a reputation for blitzing that is and is not accurate. The Steelers have blitzed with five rushers 30 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. However, they have big blitzed 5 percent of the time -- only four teams big blitzed less often. To ensure their best odds of victory on Sunday, the Steelers should send every available black helmet charging into the Jets' backfield. Coincidentally, the Steelers' own quarterback is susceptible to blitz packages. Since Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension in Week 5, the Steelers have excelled against three or four pass-rushers, averaging 7.7 yards per play with a 53 percent Success Rate -- second in the league by just a few decimal points in both categories. Against five rushers, that Success Rate falls to 39 percent (24th in the league), and 40 percent against big blitzes (20th). It's important to point out the Steelers still pick up a lot of real estate -- 6.9 yards per play against five rushers (6th in the NFL), 6.0 against big blitzes (13th) -- so if you blitz them, they will collect big plays. The Jets will have to live with that, though, because blitzing is their best bet to get Pittsburgh's offense off the field. Last week, Roethlisberger benefited from playing a defense that was very average, strategically -- the Ravens were 13th in percentage of five-man rushes and 14th in big blitzes. This week, though, he faces one of the most aggressive units in the NFL. The Jets rushed five on nearly a third of all plays, more often than anyone except the Cleveland Browns. The Jets big blitzed 14 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in football. If both teams stick with their usual defensive game plans, Sanchez will look better than expected, while Roethlisberger will disappoint. That could be the key to the Jets' third straight upset -- and an appearance in the Super Bowl.
Can it really be considered an upset at this point? We just beat Brady and Manning back to back. At this point you would think we are favored to beat the Steelers even if they do have home field advantage.
I'm gonna use this thing called logic and say its not an upset. Great Defense timely passing game and one of the best running games in football.. Thanks logic.
A significant factor the article is missing is the amount of pressure teams create with their respective blitzes. With the Jets lack of a pure rusher, they probably create less pressure than a lot of teams with any given number of rushers. These numbers have some significance, but they are certainly incomplete representations.
Vegas odds have nothing to do with the true probability of the outcome of a game. Handicapping is by design meant to get betting on two teams even so the book has a push at the end and makes money from the vig. All those odds mean is that more people are betting on the Steelers at this time. If they change throughout the week it is to further balance the book. That is all. I thought NYers understood this kinda stuff...
Logic also states the Jets have an amazing road record, including (and perhaps especially) in the playoffs. It wont be a walk in the park by any stretch but this team has the confidence, the talent, and the coaching to beat any team in the NFL. Fuck the Steelers :steelers:
i'm with you 100%, i'm confident as hell about sunday, but technically they're still road dogs is all i am saying.
Remember back to last Sunday? The Jets were on the road and getting 9.5. They worked it out during that 'game thing'.
Your logic is good and I agree with you. But the Jets are 3.5 points underdog. So yes, it will be considered an upset, although if we lose, I'd consider that to be a Steelers upset.
If the Jets can win anymore games no matter what it'll be upsets. I don't give a crap wut it is I just want a title!
Yes, if the Jets lose this weekend I will be upset. Logic says, "it makes more sense for me that way." Odd? Who needs stinking odds?
I'm a Steelers fan but I'd say the Jets are actually favored. I mean what they accomplished in the last 2 weeks is unbelievable, and there's no doubt they CAN beat Pittsburgh. I hate to say this, but gun to my head, I'd pick the Jets
