Jets can clinch the playoffs BEFORE Sunday's games start. If Pittsburgh beats Carolina AND Dallas beats Arizona that seals it. The Jets would clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. both SD and Jax. Since the Jets have beat Pittsburgh and both SD and Jax have not that increases the Jets strength of victory. Since SD beat Arizona and neither the Jets or Jax have not that decreases SD's strength of victory. The combination of the two is enough that neither team can pass the Jets. This scenario is exactly why the Steelers have clinched a spot in the playoffs and the Jets have not despite the Jets win on Sunday. Steelers have a greater strength of victory than the Jets at the moment. Jax and SD can no longer threaten the Steelers WC spot but since the Jets SOV % is lower right now that is the reason the Steelers are in at the moment.
Can you confirm this? I tweeted this, and the Chiefs beating the Titans clinching it for us and no one will reply with a confirmation.
Is this really correct? There are currently 7 teams that can finish 10-6, and of that group only the Steelers have clinched. When numerous teams are tied for both divison and wildcard spots the tie breaker scenarios become much more complicated. I've even seen cases where in a three-way tie, the left out team actually has beaten one of the playoff teams head-to-head. For example, what happens if KC, SD, Balt, Jax and NYJ all finish 10-6?
The best the Jags can do is 40.6%. SD currently is higher in SOV% but their percentage will fall well below the Jets current 41.4% even if they win their last 2 because they play CIN & DEN. A Steeler win over the Panthers and a DAL win over ARZ guarantees a higher SOV over both SD and Jax if you do the math which I did. Here are the current SOV% after Week 15 ) .557 - Washington Redskins 2) .524 - Tennessee Titans 3) .518 - New England Patriots 4) .500 - Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles 7) .486 - Cleveland Browns 8) .482 - Detroit Lions 9) .468 - Baltimore Ravens 10) .464 - Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals 12) .446 - Atlanta Falcons 13) .443 - Dallas Cowboys 14) .439 - Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins 16) .429 - Green Bay Packers, San Diego Chargers, Indianapolis Colts 19) .414 - New York Jets 20) .405 - Cincinnati Bengals 21) .402 - New York Giants 22) .393 - Seattle Seahawks 23) .389 - Kansas City Chiefs 24) .386 - Chicago Bears 25) .384 - Jacksonville Jaguars 26) .371 - San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints 28) .339 - Buffalo Bills 29) .333 - St. Louis Rams 30) .321 - Carolina Panthers 31) .314 - Minnesota Vikings 32) .286 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Well, Indy would win their division. KC is out and SD is out. Based on SOV we would be in, because Jax has the Skins and Houston left. It would also matter what other teams do, if teams we beat win, or vice-versa. The same would apply for SD actually, but our Pats and Steeler wins really help us out here. Pittsburgh has to keep winning and so does NE, at least 1 more week.
SD would beat out KC at 10-6 pushing KC to the WC. Pitt would beat out BALT pushing Balt to the WC. KC would lose out to everyone based on conference record leaving NYJ, Balt, Jax. BALT would have conference record over Jax and head to head over NYJ leaving final spot to the Jets or Jags. SOV% the Jets would win.
The Jets finally got back to me. The 3 lined up are the only guarantees. Common opponents comes into play, and absolute SOV is impossible to determine with all the other games yet to be played. So it's still We win, Jags or Colts lose.
Got the same response when questioning the Pitt/Dallas question. This is incorrect. The reason for this is that NYJ loses the tiebreaker to JAC on common games. Regardless of what happens on Thursday and Saturday, both PIT and BAL could finish with more than 10 wins, and JAC could finish 10-6 and be a wildcard contender. If SD is not in the mix (i.e., SD loses/ties one of their last 2 games), then JAC and NYJ would be matched up for the 6 seed, and JAC would win on common opponents. Thus, NYJ cannot clinch before Sunday.
no, they don't./ jacksonville has played the browns, the texans, the bills and the broncos out of the jets opponents. both teams are 4-0 against them. so......next
Yeah but when calculating a clinch they're assuming that we lose out. So we'd be 4-1 and they'd be 4-0.
Good catch. My bad. I thought common games were tied. Common games would be CLE, HOU, DEN & BUF. Jags would be 5-0, Jets would be 4-1.
not as tired as my emotions are from the way we have been winning this year! Can we just get a damn blowout to clinch this thing?
While it is true that JAC would beat the NYJ based on common games the scenario I painted is for breaking a 3 way tie for a wild card. SD doesn't have the minimum number of common games with the other clubs which is four. Three or More Clubs- Wild Card (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. 5. Strength of victory.
