GH's 2011 Two Round Mock 11/30

It's so early that it would even be pointless to title this as a pointless mock. That said, I was updating my rankings over the weekend and felt inspired, so here you go. The basic point here is just to educate and share opinions on players.

Comments/criticisms/questions encouraged as always.



ROUND ONE:

1. Carolina- WR A.J. Green, Georgia
- Best player in the draft and the Panthers desperately need to add a playmaker. It's a no brainer.

2. Detroit- CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
- 2nd best player in the draft, and the Lions biggest need. This mock draft thing is easy.

3. Cincinnati- QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
- Palmer is owed a ton of money and the Bengals will probably be looking at a new regime.

4. Buffalo- DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina
- Bowers has more value at this very second, but Quinn should shred workouts and is a better 34 fit.

5. Arizona- QB Cam Newton, Auburn
- The monster himself, Newton has it all and will remind Ken Wisenhunt of a (much) faster Ben Roethlisberger.

6. Dallas- DE Nick Fairley, Auburn
- The nation's most improved player earned every bit of his top ten paycheck. He'll be a great fit in Dallas' 34.

7. Denver- DE Marcel Dareus, Alabama
- Just a slight bit behind Fairley right now to me, but they're interchangeable.

8. San Francisco- CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
- The Niners have needed corner help forever, and finally are in a position to take an elite prospect.

9. Minnesota- QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
- Rocket arm is just too much to not go top ten. Obvious weaknesses require a good QB coach, and no Favre.

10. Cleveland- WR Justin Blackmon, OK State
- Dez Bryant who? Blackmon's a shoe in for the Biletnikoff, and will be an instant playmaker for Colt McCoy.

11. St. Louis- DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
- Too goo to fall this far, but a string of 34 Defenses push this traditional DE down a bit.

12. Seattle- DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
- Could play in either a 43 or 34, Carroll seems like the type to go after proven college commodities in the draft.
13. New England (OAK)- WR Julio Jones, Alabama
- Regained some lost position on the top receivers after his recent explosive performances.

14. Washington- RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
- Hasn't been as dominant as last year, but still as good as it gets as a RB prospect.

15. Tennessee- DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State
- They have some size at tackle, but no playmakers. Paea is a big, strong player who can create pressure.

16. Houston- LB Bruce Carter, North Carolina
- The most athletically gifted LB in the nation, Carter is good enough to put off DB for a round.

17. San Diego- DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
- They have a lot of no name guys holding that defense together, Watt can wreak havoc in any defense.

18. Jacksonville- CB Brandon Harris, Miami
- They need another cornerback anyway, and their best one Rashean Mathis is a free agent.

19. Indianapolis- DT Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
- The Colts practice of taking smaller DTs hasn't worked quite so well recently, Heyward is a good, mid-sized compromise.

20. Miami- RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
- Their backs are always dinged up and could be out the door as it is, Williams is a horse that hasn't come close to his potential.

21. Kansas City- LB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
- They need a passrusher, but more importantly a smart linebacker to lead the defense when Vrabel retires.

22. NY Giants- LB Travis Lewis, Oklahoma
- The Giants woes at linebacker are well known, and Lewis has been producing since day one at OU.

23. Tampa Bay- DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
- Should go even higher than this, Kerrigan is a tough passrusher with great moves better than advertised athleticism.

24. Philadelphia- CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida
- Jenkins has been remarkably consistent this season after being a flashy player early in his career.

25. Green Bay- DE Cameron Jordan, California
- The Packers might need to replace Cullen Jenkins at DE, and don't really have a ton of other needs.

26. Chicago- OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
- The best tackle in a class without a premier prospect, he'll be the first of a few to go in a late 1st, early 2nd run.

27. New Orleans- DE Justin Houston, Georgia
- Would be a better fit in a 34 as an OLB, but all the Saints care about is that he can get to the QB.

28. Baltimore- WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
- Anquan Boldin, TJ Housh, and Derrick Mason are great and all, but they need young blood in there.

29. Pittsburgh- OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
- Castanzo can play either tackle spot from day one, and would be another piece to a rebuilt OL.

30. NY Jets- LB Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma
- I've talked about Beal a ton already, just a perfect fit.

31. Atlanta- WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
- Roddy White is fantastic, and would be better if there's another threat out there (esp. when Tony G. retires).

32. New England- RB Mikel Leshoure, Illinois
- He's been a stud this year, and would be a feature guy to go with some great compliments.

 

ROUND TWO:


33. New England (CAR)- DE Allen Bailey, Miami
- They have some good young DL, but also enough picks to take a chance on a monster.

34. Cincinnati- WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
- Floyd's potential is off the charts, but there's just something about him that scares me. A worthy risk in Rd 2.

35. Buffalo- OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
- Added beef to the defense, and now get a Left Tackle that was inexplicably avoided last season.

36. Detroit- LB Greg Jones, Michigan State
- Can probably slide in either inside or out, Schwartz will appreciate the fact that he and Peterson are day one starters.

37. Dallas- S Deunta Williams, North Carolina
- They added a cornerback in Rd 1, fantastic, now about the rest of the secondary...

38. Denver- LB Von Miller, Texas A&M
- Miller's had a down year, but I think he'd be a great fit as a threat opposite/in place of Elvis Dumervil.

39. Arizona- OT DeMarcus Love, Arkansas
- There's no chance that Wisenhunt would let Newton play behind the wet paper towel line the Cards presently boast.

40. Minnesota- CB Brandon Burton, Utah
- I think Burton is the type of player they thought Chris Cook was, a tall physical corner, while Cook is best off as a safety.

41. Cleveland- LB Mason Foster, Washington
- Foster is a treat to watch, just a passionate guy that flies all over the field and makes tough plays.

42. San Francisco- S Robert Sands, West Virginia
- No Barron, so I'm taking a shot at a kid who could fly up the charts.

43. Seattle- CB Chase Minnifield, Virginia
- A special player, Minnifield is a guy that a lot of people aren't aware of, but has been one of the ACC's best players this year.

44. Oakland- QB Jake Locker, Washington
- If I were going solely by rankings, he wouldn't be here, but it just seems like a Raiders pick.

45. Washington- QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
- A better player than this spot, the Shanahans will jump on it.

46. Tennessee- LB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina
- Smart athletic linebacker can play inside or out, and at a higher level than the players they've had recently outside of Jon Vilma.

47. Houston- WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky
- They might have bigger needs, but Cobb is a great fit to play opposite Andre Johnson. He can do anything on an offense.

48. St. Louis- WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M
- The Rams have a number of WRs that classify as good #2s, but none with top flight potential. Fuller will excel with consistent QB play.

49. Jacksonville- QB Nick Foles, Arizona
- The Jags need a QB despite David Garrard's on and off success. They haven't even tried to develop a QB in years.

50. Indianapolis- OG Rodney Hudson, Florida State
- The Colts just need to keep piling on offensive linemen until the running game is legitimate again.

51. Denver (MIA)- TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
- The injury is an obvious concern, but he's still far and away the best Tight End in this class.

52. San Diego- CB Aaron Williams, Texas
- Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer have been inconsistent, and Williams is a great value after a less than stellar year.

53. NY Giants- OT Matt Reynolds, BYU
- The Giants have had one of the better OLs in the league in recent years, but some parts will have to be replaced soon.

54. Tampa Bay- OT Nate Solder, Colorado
- The Bucs have the makings of a good young line, they just need the most important piece.

55. Philadelphia- OG Ben Ijalana, Villanova
- Underrated, unknown offensive lineman from a FCS program in Philadelphia? Sounds like a movie to me.

56. Green Bay- RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
- I don't love Murray as a starter or to ever really hit his potential, but he'd be fantastic in a rotation with a physical runner like Grant.

57. Kansas City- OG Stefan Wisniewski, Penn State
- Can play either position on the interior line, which will be important with aging players at both positions.

58. New Orleans- DT Muhammed Wilkerson, Temple
- A rising player, you will be hearing a lot about him over the coming months.

59. Baltimore- CB Johnny Patrick, Louisville
- Physical, athletic corner will be a riser, even though I just dropped him a few spots.

60. Pittsburgh- OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
- They have his brother already, so why not? Anyone who saw the Pats game knows they need a few new players to protect Big Ben.

61. Chicago- CB Davon House, New Mexico State
- Teams have dodged him all season after his dominant junior year, but he'll show enough in workouts/Senior Bowl to earn this pick.

62. Atlanta- DE Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh
- Off the field issues will offset much of the positive mojo his play has created this season, a fitting replacement for John Abraham.

63. New England- OG John Moffitt, Wisconsin
- One of the best interior linemen in the country, he'll help ease the blow if Logan Mankins finds his way out of town.

64. NY Jets- S DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson
- A shaky year in coverage shouldn't concern the Jets too much, he, like Beal, is a fantastic fit for their defense.

 

I read an article that said the Pitt staff figured out that Sheard was doubled on 70% of passing situations this season, and he's still put up some great performances. If you think about where he and Romeus were before the year, saying he'd be a better prospect as of December would be like saying Manny Lawson was going to be taken higher than Mario Williams a couple years back. I know Romeus has had the injuries, but I think Sheard's play in his absence may tell us something that we missed when they were playing together.

 

I've seen Allen Bailey play plenty of times, and to be perfectly honest he's just not as good as these other players. Cameron Jordan is miles ahead of where Bailey is right now, and even he barely made the first round. Bailey has tremendous potential, but he's far from any kind of lock.

Rahim Moore is a quality player, but he is one dimensional and hasn't been as good this year as I would have hoped. He's stuck in the muddled ground of top safeties that, to me, starts after Barron and goes all the way down to the 6th or 7th guy in the rankings. I can see people making legitimate arguments that Quinton Carter and Robert Sands are better.

Jerrell Powe is everything a team could want as a nose, except doing very much to earn his high praise. He's been good/very good in stretches, but a laundry list of concerns will follow him, intelligence and conditioning being high on the list. That said, I'd still love to see him as a Jet in some way.

Marvin Austin is just a moron. He's not a top 2 round player to me right now, and if a few other UCs declare he'll be even further down (Casey, Crick, Muhammed Wilkerson).

 

The Cleveland thing was just an error on my part, I did the first and second round on different days and screwed that up. I'll make some changes and get that fixed.

See the other comment. WR is clearly their biggest need, especially with a young QB like McCoy and Blackmon is a perfect fit.

As for Devlin, don't worry, I'm plenty familiar with him. He was originally a Hurricane commit back in 2006. I would say that calling him Joe Flacco 2.0 is a pretty big overstatement of Devlin's ability, Flacco had unique physical traits that made him a first round pick. Devlin's got a decent arm and has had success at UD, but Flacco had a cannon and was still very accurate.

Devlin's solid as a 3rd rounder up against guys like Christian Ponder, but he's a ways behind where Flacco was as a prospect barring some outstanding workouts. As for guys like Foles and Gabbert, they've both shown this year that they're capable of big time quarterback play, it's just that they've both only really had the one big season. They could both be top 15 guys if they stay another year.

I think McDaniel's off the field incident last year will have an impact (any violent action usually provides the biggest red flag), and he is really a guy that has to fit into a system. Luckily for us, he fits exactly what we need.

And the different picks are because I did what the NFL does. When teams have the same record the team who picks first drops to the bottom, and the other teams move up. Say if the Jets have 30, Saints have 31, and Pats have 32, in Rd 2 it'll be Saints, Pats, and Jets. Rd 3 would be Pats, Jets, Saints. Rd 4 is back to the round one order and so on.

I watched Minnifield in the UM-UVA not expecting much, and he blew me away. He was all over the field, physical, and incredibly athletic. He could very easily end up as a top 25 pick if his hot streak extends into the offseason.

I think the safety class is pretty tight at the top, and it will take one player (my money is on Barron) stepping up in the offseason to separate himself and become a first rounder. That said, Deunta Williams/McDaniel will have the extra exposure from Senior Bowl week that could make either of them the guy.

Sash is a good player, but I think that a couple of the UCs that aren't lights out prospects will go back and try to make that first round level next year (Sash/Sands). Plus Iowa guys don't really go pro early, even when they're higher rated types.

I'm glad to see that, and because of it I'll be looking forward to each mock you do.

 

DAMN about Barron. As you can see in my post two minutes ago, I thought he'd be the guy who'd take advantage of workouts the most. I'll wait to see something definitive, but that's a big blow to the safety class (and a huge boost for next year's Tide).

Beal is just a better fit in the NFL than Miller is. Miller is a great passrusher, sure, but that's pretty much all he's capable of doing. This year has really opened eyes to how easy it is to take him out of the game. Beal on the other hand has experience in a complicated, zone blitz based defense that will prepare him well for the NFL (esp. Rex's scheme). He's played with his hand up and down and excelled in both spots, and is a great leader for that defense.

As for the Rd 2 pick, I'm not as in love with a guy like Powe (or Phil Taylor) as others might be with early picks. They can be good players, but there really is no room to fool around with the nose tackle position. Unless it's an elite prospect (Wilfork/Raji), it's better to look for a proven commodity. Luckily for the Jets, Pouha has been terrific, and buys the Jets serious time before they need to get another Nose.

If they want to take a guy later and develop him, that'd be fine, but if they go DL early I'd rather it be a DE that can start from Day one. Even more preferred is if they do what I did and grab a passrushing OLB before anything else in the front 7.