I posted this in the draft section because I think it affects draft strategies in general more so than just the Jets. With next season most probably becoming an 18 games season does it still make sense to spend a high draft pick on a RB? With today's 16 games per year NFL it's already considered an exception rather then the rule to have an RB producing after he hits 30 (which means a 8-9 yrs career). And if you look at the careers of players who have had consecutive 300+ carries per season they take very steep downward trajectories. In an 18 games season I can see RBs breaking down a lot more. It's not only the two more games per season but also the fact they'll have to play through more injuries... and a reduced workload in the off-season + an extra bye won't do much (imo). At this point two questions arise: 1) Is it worth to spend a first rd draft pick on a guy whose career will prob last around 6-7 yrs while not always being on the field? How much of a game-breaker does he have to be to deserve it? 2) Does having a solid rotation become more important than having a game-breaker? While an elite player may get you some "Home runs" you wouldn't be able to move the ball with the jas... instead a solid rotation would enable to run the ball when you want. All said and done I think 2 consequences arise from the move to an 18 games season (that influence the draft): 1) Individual RBs loose value and having a solid rotation becomes more important. 2) A direct consequence is the passing game gains more value (WRs get hit a lot less) thus the WRs become more valuable.
It won't matter if there's a pick cap. Teams would be more willing to spend higher picks on RBs because they won't have to spend huge money on a guy that will only last a handful of years and might only be part of a committee.
Hadn't thought about that... excellent point! But still... their durability still becomes an issue... Ssshhhhh!!! Why is everyone so quick to point out that every thread I make is secretly about Woodhead! I'm working between the lines here fellas... kind of like an Inception thing... let's not bring Woodhead out until like page 5 or something
I think to an extent it will become a 3 back league. Every team in the league will need 3 competent backs, most games will go similar to ours now, with backs splitting 10-15 touches, and the third back there for blowouts, and injury replacement purposes. Receivers will likely carry more of a premium in the draft because their careers will be expected to last longer.
Players want a bigger roster and two by weeks a season to go to 18 games. I think you'll see running backs actually grow in value, as more teams will horde them because of the high injury rate. Elite backs will always have a huge premium value because they see a lot of touches. Even if average touches for guys like Peterson drop from 25 to 20 a game, its still far more than anyone outside of QB. the middle of the pack guys will be scouped up and held on extra roster spots instead of floting around as readily.
