Football Scientist: Who's better, Giants or Jets?

mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

It's split into 7 parts.

Football Scientist: Who's better, Giants or Jets?

Football Scientist: Who's better, Giants or Jets?
October, 28, 2010

By KC Joyner

We receive a lot of questions during the live in-game chats, but one stood out more than any other in this week's Monday Night Football chat -- which team is better, the Giants or the Jets?

Like Barney Stinson (the hilarious character from the CBS sitcom How I Met Your Mother), I can't resist taking on a difficult challenge when offered one and therefore will accept the task of running the numbers to determine, at this moment, which New York team is superior.

This competition will be broken down into seven segments:

1. Wide receivers and tight ends
2. Cornerbacks and safeties
3. Offensive line and running backs from a passing game perspective
4. Offensive line and running backs from a running game perspective
5. Defensive front seven
6. Special teams
7. Quarterbacks (will save the best for last)

Each segment will be reviewed primarily on its 2010 metrics, although the 2009 numbers will also be leaned upon as a potential tiebreaking element.

That last note may be the most important part of this review -- there will be no ties in any of the overall battles (although some individual matchups could end up listed as a push). Like any good throwdown, each skirmish will continue until there is a winner!

Let's get started by reviewing the wide receivers and tight ends.

#1 wide receiver -- Hakeem Nicks vs. Braylon Edwards

Nicks has received a lot of publicity for his terrific play this season (including this TFS ESPNNewYork.com blog post) but Edwards is actually outplaying him in the metric realm so far this year. Check out the numbers:

Short passes (aerials thrown up to 10 yards downfield)

Edwards -- 18 attempts for 91 yards, 5.1 yards per attempt (YPA)

Nicks -- 38 attempts for 251 yards, 6.6 YPA

(note on attempts and yards - penalty plays such as pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc. are included)

Medium passes (11-19 yards)

Edwards -- 13 attempts, 164 yards, 12.6 YPA

Nicks -- 18 attempts, 155 yards, 8.6 YPA

Deep passes (20-29 yards)

Edwards -- 8 attempts, 127 yards, 15.9 YPA

Nicks -- 6 attempts, 86 yards, 14.3 YPA

Bomb passes (30+ yards)

Edwards -- 2 attempts, 0 yards, 0.0 YPA

Nicks -- 7 attempts, 57 yards, 8.1 YPA

They split two of the four YPA categories but Edwards ends up with the overall YPA lead (8.0 for Nicks, 9.3 for Edwards). Edwards also has an 12.7 to 9.6 YPA edge on vertical routes (which is composed of all aerials of 11-plus yards). Nicks does have to be given credit for being thrown to a lot more often (69 targets versus 41 targets) and therefore being a larger part of his team's offense.

Edge: Put them all together and it equals an Edwards lead at the moment. That may change down the road but right now the Jets have the advantage.

#2 wide receiver -- Steve Smith vs. Santonio Holmes

This one is a bit tougher because Holmes only has a couple of games under his 2010 belt. In that time, however, his overall YPA (8.3) is slightly better than Smith's (7.7). His history strongly suggests that this YPA difference is not an anomaly (Holmes has frequently posted double-digit YPA in many categories over the past few years).

Edge: Jets, slightly.

#3 wide receiver -- Mario Manningham vs. Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery has posted quality numbers in the past (he was always as good as Laveranues Coles, just much less heralded) but this season is an entirely different story. Cotchery has a simply abysmal 4.6 YPA on 36 pass attempts this year. To put that total into perspective, consider that the league floor for YPA among wide receivers at the end of the season is normally around six YPA.

Manningham, on the other hand, is having an absolutely terrific season. He has gained 339 on 29 pass attempts for a stellar 11.7 YPA. A good part of why this is occurring is Manningham's superb showing on vertical throws. He has caught nine of 13 vertical passes sent his way and gained 220 yards on those aerials (16.9 YPA).

Edge: The Giants by a large margin.

Tight end -- Kevin Boss/Travis Beckum vs. Dustin Keller

One might think at first glance that this is a slam-dunk win for the Jets, but the numbers on each side of this equation are actually nearly identical.

Keller has gained 333 yards on 39 targets for an 8.5 YPA. Boss and Beckum have tallied 269 yards on 33 targets, or 8.2 YPA.

They are also very close on vertical passes, with Keller posting 239 yards on 16 attempts (14.3 YPA) versus Boss/Beckum's 163 yards on 11 attempts (14.8 YPA).

Edge: No discernible stat difference means this is also a push.

Add the four together and it equals two wins for the Jets versus one big win for the Giants. Had Big Blue's win come at one of the starting wide receiver/tight end roles, it might be enough to offset the Jets numeric edge in victories, but the #3 WR victory isn't quite enough to vault them over the top. It is close but in the end Gang Green pulls this one out. They have a 1-0 series edge heading into Game Two.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 2

This is Part 2 of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? The Jets took the lead in Part 1, which was a review of each team's pass catchers. In today's installment, we compare the teams' secondaries. This analysis will revolve around the pass-coverage skills of each player.

Left Cornerback: Corey Webster vs. Darrelle Revis

Might as well start with the highest-profile and potentially most controversial pick of this entire series. Revis was a dominant cornerback in 2009, but this year he has been off his game due to injury and rust. He has allowed 171 yards on 22 targets, or a 7.8 yards per attempt (YPA) mark.

Webster has been the anchor of the Giants' secondary so far this year. He has allowed 134 yards on 21 attempts, or a 6.4 YPA. That gives him nearly a yard-and-a-half lead over Revis in that category, but he also keeps up with Revis in success percentage (defined as when a pass directed at a cornerback ends up as an incompletion or an offensive pass-interference penalty). Webster has 14 successful plays in those 21 attempts (66.7 percent success rate) versus Revis' 14 successful plays in 22 attempts (63.6 percent success rate).

Edge: When he is at his best, Revis is the better CB -- but he hasn't been at his best at any time this year, and it isn't a given that he will get back to that level in 2010. That being the case, Webster is, at this moment, the better CB.

Right Cornerback: Terrell Thomas vs. Antonio Cromartie

Thomas' YPA has been steadily rising all season long and now stands at 8.3 (388 yards allowed on 47 attempts). Cromartie has struggled at times, but all told he has allowed 413 yards on 55 passes, for a 7.5 YPA. His success rate is also higher (52.7 percent for Cromartie, 46.8 percent for Thomas). In addition, it is worth noting that Cromartie is playing his best ball of the season now, and Thomas most certainly is not.

Edge: A definite win for the Jets.

Nickel Cornerback: Bruce Johnson/Aaron Ross vs. Drew Coleman/Dwight Lowery/Kyle Wilson

This one is a bit difficult, because the Giants' nickel cornerbacks haven't been thrown at nearly as often as the Jets' nickel CBs have. Between them, Johnson and Ross have been targeted only 18 times this year. Coleman (15 targets) and Lowery (12 targets) both have nearly equaled that total on their own, and that doesn't include the passes that have been thrown Wilson's way when he has played as an extra cornerback.

Having said that, the Giants are in a much worse way here, because the bulk of their targets have been directed at Ross and he has been the definition of a coverage liability this year. He has allowed 156 yards on the 13 passes thrown his way, for a ridiculously high 12.0 YPA. To put that into perspective, the 10-yard YPA mark is the benchmark for unacceptable performance and Ross' YPA is two yards higher than that.

The Jets' CBs have had issues of their own (Lowery's 12.2 YPA being chief among them), but Coleman and his 6.1 YPA total give them the lead at this position.

Edge: Coleman scores one for Gang Green.

Strong Safety: Kenny Phillips vs. Jim Leonhard

In the TFS grading system, safeties have two different types of coverage. The first is direct coverage, meaning the safety is the primary coverage person on the pass. The second is deep assist coverage, which is where the safety is helping another defender with over-the-top coverage. Strong safeties do a lot more direct coverage than deep assist coverage, so that is the metric primarily used to grade their coverage abilities.

In the case of Phillips vs. Leonhard, neither player has performed particularly well in this metric. Phillips has allowed 58 yards on seven direct coverage passes for an 8.3 YPA. Generally speaking, a YPA of that level is adequate but isn't anything to write home about.

Leonhard has given up 137 yards on 11 targets, or a 12.5 YPA. Double-digit YPAs in this category are much like double-digit YPAs for cornerbacks -- they are unacceptable, and a mark that someone is not playing well.

Edge: Phillips and the G-Men get the win here.

Free Safety: Antrel Rolle vs. Brodney Pool

The deep assist coverage metric is a tough one to gauge for many reasons, not the least of which is small sample sizes. But it generally does a good job of showing when a free safety is and isn't doing his job well.

Let's start with Pool. Of the five passes on which he has helped over the top on a targeted pass, only one was completed -- for a 37-yard gain. A second target ended up as a 27-yard pass-interference call on the cornerback. Those are not normally tallied as yardage against the safety (unless the safety is the one responsible for the penalty) but for the sake of argument, let's add it in and say Pool has a 12.8 deep assist YPA.

Now let's contrast that to Rolle. Four of the five plays where he had deep assist coverage on a target ended up in completions, totaling 155 yards. That equates to a 31-yard deep assist YPA. That alone could charge him with a loss here, but it is also worth remembering the gaffes he had in the Detroit game. He is taking far too many risks.

Edge: Pool pulls out a win for the Jets.

Bottom Line: The Jets lead in the coverage realm, 3 to 2. Since neither team has done much in the ball-hawking department (the Jets have five interceptions, the Giants seven), the coverage metrics end up taking the day. That means another Gang Green victory, and thus a 2-0 lead for Rex Ryan's crew in this best-of-seven series.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 3

This is Part 3 of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? The Jets took a 1-0 lead in Part 1 and extended that to a 2-0 lead in Part 2.

In today's installment, the teams' offensive and line and running backs will be compared from a passing game perspective using a variety of metrics.

For the offensive line, the main metrics to be used will be "splash" plays. Splash plays are any time a pass rusher does something to negatively impact a pass. Plays of this nature include sacks, knocking down the ball at the line of scrimmage, tipping a pass at the line of scrimmage or hitting a quarterback while he is throwing the ball.

That is the normal way of measuring how much impact a pass blocking group has in protecting their quarterback, but for the sake of this analysis, two more metrics will be included -- quarterback hits and holding penalties. Very few teams can make a Super Bowl run with a backup field general, and preventing hits is one important way to ensure that doesn't happen. Holding penalties most often occur to prevent a splash play from happening, so including them here is only sensible.

It is also important to note that this analysis will focus not on the volume of splash plays, but rather the percentage of QB drops where a splash play occurs. The reason for doing it this way is that it puts splash plays into a pass attempt context (context being one of the most important elements in any statistical analysis).

Now that the preliminaries are out of the way, let's take a look at the numbers.

Who Owns N.Y.?

There's talk of a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, but why wait to find out who's better? Over the next several days, KC Joyner will crunch the numbers.
Part 1: The receivers
Part 2: The secondary
Part 3: O-line/RBs in passing game

We'll start with the Giants. The TFS count has the G-Men with 266 dropbacks (a total that includes every pass play, even the ones that were nullified by a penalty). Twelve of those dropbacks ended up as sacks and three were offensive holding penalties. There were two passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage and one tipped at the line. Big Blue's O line has also allowed thirty-five quarterback hits according to the official play-by-play sheets and also gave up one quarterback hit while passing.

Add all of those up and it equals 54 splash plays, or a 20.3% splash play percentage.

Let's do the same for the Jets. The TFS count has Gang Green with 199 dropbacks, nine sacks, two offensive holding penalties, zero passes knocked down at the line, four passes tipped at the line, twenty-four quarterback hits and zero quarterback hits while passing.

Add those up and it equals 39 splash plays, or a 19.6% splash play percentage.

A difference of seven-tenths of one percent means that, over the course of a 600-dropback season, the Giants would allow about four more splash plays than the Jets. That really isn't enough of a difference to give either team the win here.

Edge: Push.

Now let's take a look at how productive the running backs are in the passing game. This metric review is pretty straightforward. Each running back will be graded by his overall yards-per-attempt (YPA) mark (Note: penalty plays such as pass interference, illegal contact, etc. are included in all WR/TE/QB/RB YPA measurements).

The Giants go first. Here are their totals:

Ahmad Bradshaw: 21 attempts, 105 yards gained, 5.0 YPA

Brandon Jacobs: 4 attempts, 26 yards, 6.5 YPA

Madison Hedgecock: 2 attempts, 8 yards, 4.0 YPA

Danny Ware: 1 attempt, 5 yards, 5.0 YPA

Giants RB totals: 28 attempts, 144 yards, 5.1 YPA

The Jets are up next:

LaDainian Tomlinson: 28 attempts, 107 yards, 3.8 YPA

Shonn Greene: 3 attempts, 17 yards, 5.7 YPA

Tony Richardson: 2 attempts, 9 yards, 4.5 YPA

John Conner: 4 attempts, 9 yards, 4.5 YPA

Jets RB totals: 37 attempts, 142 yards, 3.8 YPA

The Giants have a 1.3 YPA lead in this category, which is a significant enough lead to grant them the victory.

Edge: Giants in an upset

That win gives the G-Men the victory in Part 3, so the competition now reads Jets 2, Giants 1.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 4

This is Part 4 of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? The Jets took a 1-0 lead and then extended it in Part 2. The Giants closed the gap to 2-1 in Part 3.

Before getting into the specifics of this analysis, it would be useful to take a moment to give an overview of The Football Scientist (TFS) run-grading system.

The centerpiece is the ROBIN block grading method. ROBIN stands for Results-Oriented BINary. The binary part of the equation means that each block is given a win or loss designation. The results-oriented segment indicates that the results of the block are all that matters -- it isn't designed to grade the specifics of run blocking technique. If the block works, the system counts it as a win.

So what is meant by a win? There is a lot that goes into that, but the simplest explanation is if the blocker moved his defender out of the way to create a seam for the runner to go upfield, he is given credit for a Point of Attack (POA) win. If the defender does anything to disrupt the run (e.g. stuffs the gap, gets past the blocker into the backfield, etc.), it is considered a POA loss for the offense. (Quick note on POA blocks -- there are occasionally blocking battles that occur away from the Point of Attack that are factored into the win/loss percentage ... e.g. terrific pursuit by a defensive end on the backside of a slant run, but by and large the system sticks to measuring POA blocks.)

In doing overviews of team blocking, there are two metrics that have stood out over the years as the best measuring tools.

The first is Good Blocking percentage. This metric came about after I did some studies on running backs to determine how well they did when they received good blocking (defined as when all POA blockers win their POA battles) and when they received poor blocking (defined as when one or more POA blockers loses his POA battle).

In the two seasons worth of studies I did on this, some benchmarks of success became clear. A good offensive line will post a Good Blocking percentage in the 75-80% range. An average O line will notch a 70-75% total and a subpar blocking group will post anything at or below the 70% mark.

So far in 2010, the Jets would be ranked as one of the good blocking O lines. According to the TFS count (which include blocking plays with penalties (they always count as a POA loss), but don't include scramble runs or kneeldowns), Gang Green has 217 POA runs. They have tallied 170 Good Blocking plays for a Good Blocking percentage of 78.3%.

The Giants haven't fared quite as well in this area. The TFS count has them at 198 POA runs, with 141 Good Blocking plays for a Good Blocking percentage of 71.2%.

Who Owns N.Y.?

There's talk of a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, but why wait to find out who's better? Over the next several days, KC Joyner will crunch the numbers.
Part 1: The receivers
Part 2: The secondary
Part 3: O-line/RBs in passing game
Part 4: O-line/RBs in running game

That gives the Jets an early lead in this category, but it also leads to the second part of the aforementioned studies. After reviewing the league totals for RBs, it quickly became clear that no running back, not even Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, will gain many yards on plays with poor blocking. Most backs end up with a YPA of 1-2 yards in this category, with some going to the 2-3 mark and some ending up in the 0-1 range.

What that means is the true differentiation of a running back, and therefore a running attack, comes from how well a back performs when he is given good blocking.

The rules of thumb here are the elite runners will post a Good Blocking YPA (GBYPA) of 7-9 yards. Good backs will end up in the 6-7 range. Average backs end up between 5.5 and 6 yards and below average backs tally less than 5.5 YPA.

The Giants' runners as a whole are so far in the good back category, as they have gained 917 yards on those 141 Good Blocking runs for a 6.5 GBYPA.

The Jets runners don't fare quite as well, as they have gained 986 yards on 170 Good Blocking runs for a GBYPA of 5.8

It isn't just the overall count where the Giants have the lead. They also fare better with both their #1 and #2 runners:

#1 running back -- Ahmad Bradshaw vs. LaDainian Tomlinson

Bradshaw -- 97 Good Blocking runs, 668 yards, 6.9 GBYPA

Tomlinson -- 84 Good Blocking runs, 518 yards, 6.2 GBYPA

#2 running back -- Brandon Jacobs vs. Shonn Greene

Jacobs -- 40 Good Blocking runs, 230 yards, 5.8 GBYPA

Greene -- 63 Good Blocking runs, 328 yards, 5.2 GBYPA

Now we need to put these two sets of numbers together to determine which is more important -- Good Blocking percentage (where the Jets have a 7.1% lead) or Good Blocking YPA (where the Giants have a .7 of a yard lead).

Let's figure this out by using a 500-carry season as the benchmark (both teams might end up with more carries as a whole, but the 500 total is good because it is a round number and would factor out QB runs, kneeldowns, etc.).

Take 500 carries and multiply it by 7.1% and it means the Jets will have about 36 more Good Blocking runs over the course of a season. Multiply 36 by five yards (the rough difference between the gain on a Good Blocking and Poor Blocking play) and it equals a 180-yard advantage for Gang Green.

Now let's do the same thing with the .7 of a yard GBYPA advantage for the Giants. Multiply 500 by 71.2% (the Giants current Good Blocking percentage) and it equals 356 runs. Multiply 356 by .7 and it equals a 249-yard edge for the Giants.

249 may not be a lot larger than 180, but it is larger, so the Giants pull out a close win in this category.

Edge: A close victory for Big Blue. The series is now tied 2-2.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 5

By KC Joyner
This is Part 5 of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? The Jets took a 1-0 lead and then extended it in Part 2. The Giants closed the gap to 2-1 in Part 3 and tied it up in Part 4.

In this installment of the Giants-Jets metric review, we'll be taking a look at both clubs' performance in four areas of special teams: net punting average, kickoff return average, punt return average and field goal percentage.

Net punting

The Giants gain a net average (punt yardage minus punt return and touchback yardage) of 38.5 yards per punt. That total ranks Big Blue 24th in the league in this category.

The Jets average 41.0 net yards per punt, ranking 10th in the league.

Advantage: Jets

Who Owns N.Y.?

There's talk of a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, but why wait to find out who's better? Over the next several days, KC Joyner will crunch the numbers.
Part 1: The receivers
Part 2: The secondary
Part 3: O-line/RBs in passing game
Part 4: O-line/RBs in running game
Part 5: Special teams

Kickoff return

The Giants gain 17.5 yards per kickoff return, a total that ranks 31st in the league.

Gang Green tallies 29.8 yards per kickoff return, the second-best mark in the NFL.

Advantage: Jets by a large margin

Punt return

Giants - 5.9 yards per return (ranks 31st in league)

Jets - 9.6 yards per return (ranks 16th)

Advantage: Jets

Field goal percentage

The Giants have converted only 70% of their field goal attempts this season, which is the lowest conversion percentage of any team.

The Jets have been successful on 81.3% of their field goal attempts (ranks 17th).

Advantage: Jets

Edge: In a result that will come as absolutely no surprise to anyone who has watched the Giants' special teams this year, the Jets win this competition hands down. They now lead this series 3-2.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 6

This is Part 6 of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? The Jets took a 1-0 lead and then extended it in Part 2. The Giants closed the gap to 2-1 in Part 3 and tied it up in Part 4. The Jets re-took the lead in Part 5 and are currently up 3-2.

The front seven analysis will be broken down into effectiveness against the run and splash plays.

The run defense numbers for both teams are almost identical:

Giants: 173 rush attempts, 598 yards allowed (2nd fewest in the NFL), 3.5 YPA

Jets: 181 rush attempts, 621 yards allowed (3rd fewest in the NFL), 3.4 YPA

There are any of a number of different ways to try to parse this, but the bottom line is both front sevens are superb against the run.

Advantage: Push

In the realm of pass defense, the metrics that will be used are once again splash plays (for an overview of what constitutes a splash play, check out Part 3 of this series).

Here are the splash play numbers for each team:

Giants: 259 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks, 24 sacks, one offensive holding penalty drawn, five passes knocked down, four passes tipped at the line of scrimmage, 37 quarterback hits and two instances of hitting the quarterback while throwing the ball. Add them up and it equals 73 splash plays, or a splash play percentage of 28.2%.

Jets: 243 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks, 15 sacks, one offensive holding penalty drawn, four passes knocked down, three passes tipped at the line of scrimmage, 31 quarterback hits and two instances of hitting the quarterback while throwing the ball. Total them up and it equals 56 splash plays, or a splash play percentage of 23.0%.

Advantage: Five splash play percentage points are more than enough to declare the G-Men the winner here.

Edge: The Giants take this one largely on the strength of their pass rush. The series is now tied 3-3 heading into the battle of NY quarterbacks.
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mst3000 · Nov 9, 2010

Part 7

This is the final part of a seven-part series looking at which team is better from a metric perspective, the Giants or the Jets? In the first six parts of the series (see box), each team has three advantages. So, as you might expect, it all comes down to the QBs.

The general consensus in comparing Eli Manning and Mark Sanchez is that right now they really aren't even close to one another. Manning has a Super Bowl win to his credit and currently has the Giants' offense operating on all cylinders. Sanchez, on the other hand, seems to be hitting a rough spot that is so frustrating that a lot of Jets fans in the NYJ-Detroit live in-game chat on ESPNNewYork.com were calling for Brian Schottenheimer to be replaced as offensive coordinator.

Who Owns N.Y.?

There's talk of a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, but why wait to find out who's better? Football Scientist KC Joyner crunched the numbers.
Part 1: The receivers
Part 2: The secondary
Part 3: O-line/RBs in passing game
Part 4: O-line/RBs in running game
Part 5: Special teams
Part 6: Defensive front 7
Part 7: Quarterbacks

Those sentiments don't carry over to the metric review, however, as the numbers tell a much different story.

The four metrics used in the quarterback comparison are passer rating, passing yards per attempt (YPA), vertical passing yards per attempt (vertical being defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and bad decision percentage (a bad decision being defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads to either a turnover or a near-turnover such as a dropped interception).

Passer rating - Eli ranks tied for 8th in the league with a 92.7 mark. Sanchez ranks 23rd with a 79.4 total.

Advantage: Eli

Yards per attempt (YPA) - YPA is a component of passer rating, but it is listed separately here because it can be a better tool to identify productivity. This measurement of YPA also includes downfield passing penalties such as pass interference, illegal contact and defensive holding.

Manning so far has posted a 7.7 YPA versus Sanchez's 6.8 total.

Advantage: Manning wins this one as well.

Vertical yards per attempt - This was the first surprise in the metric measurements between these two. Sanchez's 12.2 YPA mark here actually bests Manning's 11.5 total by nearly a yard. Eli's win in the overall YPA category was largely due to his short-pass YPA lead (6.2 versus 4.3 for Sanchez).

Advantage: Sanchez takes the victory here.

Bad decision percentage - One would think this would be an area where the seemingly mistake-prone Sanchez would struggle, but he actually has fared fairly well here overall. His 2.4% bad decision rate means he makes an error of this nature on about one out of 41 passes. Schottenheimer's game plans may be holding Sanchez back in some ways but they are helping in this realm.

Manning, on the other hand, has been much more of a risk taker, as his 3.3% bad decision rate means about one out of 30 of his passes are of the somewhat destructive variety.

Advantage: Sanchez wins and ties the competition up.

Since each competition has to go on until there is a winner, this one has to come down to a tiebreaker. In this case, what will be used to discern the victor is to see which is more valuable: Manning's YPA edge or Sanchez's bad decision lead.

Manning has a nine-tenths of a yard lead in the YPA category. In the course of a 500-attempt season, that would equal an edge of approximately 450 yards.

Sanchez's 2.4% bad decision rate means he would make 12 bad decisions over the course of a full season. Manning's 3.3% rate pro-rates to 17 bad decisions. Many football statisticians say that a turnover is worth approximately 50 yards. If every bad decision turned into a turnover (and only half of them do so, generally speaking), it would mean Manning's bad decisions would equal a 200-yard edge for Sanchez.

Edge: 450 yards are more than 200, so Manning gets the win here.

That also gives the Giants the win in the series, 4 to 3. Right now they are the best team in New York City.
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IATA · Nov 9, 2010

I have no fucking clue what the hell is being talked about.

624 · Nov 9, 2010

October 28th

jetsmets93 · Nov 9, 2010

obviously the giants are going to win qb... in my opinion giants take wr, dl, qb, jets take both rb and o-line, secondary, and specials.

jetsyankeesfan6 · Nov 9, 2010

I wish i hadn't read that. It is sort of interesting to look at, but those numbers are very irrelevant. They played very different teams. How can you rate Webster over Revis? Maybe this was true earlier in the season but definitely not now, when you're actually rating the teams.

AbdulSalam · Nov 9, 2010

Determining who is the better team isn't simply a matter of comparing the various position players. Its about teamwork. Hopefully we meet the Giants in Big D to settle this question on the field.

perfectpackage99 · Nov 9, 2010

if the jets can develop any sort of pass rush then the Jets would decimate the Giants, but our pass rush consits of a bunch of old veterans that have lost their athletic ability. I don't have any confidence we can put together any sort of pass rush this year and until I am proven otherwise I don't put us in the category of a superbowl contender.

Jake · Nov 9, 2010

I skimmed it. There's no way this guy could crunch numbers and tell me Sanchez has played better than E. Manning this season. They should win that comparison.

Both teams look strong this year.

Jets n Boys · Nov 9, 2010

This is old.

ace_o_spades · Nov 9, 2010

I would love to see Revis cover Hakeem Nicks

Clown · Nov 9, 2010

wow.. all this for middle of the season stats? Was a good read though

smelly_joe · Nov 9, 2010

that's long

rex-N-effects · Nov 9, 2010

ace_o_spades said: ↑

I would love to see Revis cover Hakeem Nicks
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nicks is a good WR, but is nowhere near andre johnson or calvin johnson (in my opinion the top 2 in the game) and revis covered both fo them. The gianst would only be able to move the ball on us lining manningham against drew (i get beat all day" coleman and milking it

LeonNYJ · Nov 9, 2010

Teams Jets have played have a combined record of 29-36 = 0.446
Teams Giants have played have a combined record of 27-37 = 0.422

Advantage Jets

Teams the Jets have lost to have a combined record of 12-5 = 0.706
Teams the Giants have lost to have a combined record of 10-6 = 0.625

Advantage Jets

Teams the Jets have beaten have a combined record of 17-31 = 0.354
Teams the Giants have beaten have a combined record of 17-31 = 0.354

Push

Jets Record vs AFC 4-1 = 0.800
Giants Record vs. AFC 0-2 = 0.000

Advantage Jets

Jets Record vs NFC 2-1 = 0.667
Giants Record vs. NFC 6-0 = 1.000

Advantage Giants

Jets average margin of victory = 10.33
Giants average margin of victory = 14.83

Advantage Giants

Jets average margin of defeat = 5
Giants average margin of defeat = 21.5

Advantage Jets

Jets record against teams above 0.500 = 1-2 = 0.250
Giants record against teams 0.500 = 1-2 = 0.250

Push

Football Scientist: Who's better, Giants or Jets?

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