Be honest about this, when Rex didn't go for the onside kick I thought it was a huge mistake, turns out I was wrong. How many of you (honestly) would have kicked deep?
Exactly, and with the way the O was playing at that point, I actually thought it was game over , 3 and out.
I dunno. There was almost 3 mins left. It was only a FG. An onside kick failure puts the Lions in a spot to maybe get a FG or pin the Jets further back in their zone. The idea is to give the offense good field position. The safest way is to kick deep and let that defense, a defense that has been good at closing games this season, give the Jets good field position again and let the 2 minute drill score. I think that was it. Sanchez and Schotty must have said to Rex that they couldn't stop the 2 minute drill. So kick deep and allow the Jets to march 60 yards to the FG spot. An onsides kick doesn't give them the opportunity to get to where Folk needed to be. Now that I've thought out loud, kicking deep was the best idea.
With the way the D was shutting down the run, I had no problems with it. Their incomplete pass on 3rd down during that series was as big a play as any in that game.
i think the biggest factor for Rex making that decision was that he was willing to send out the defense against a Staffordless offense.
I never have faith in recovering onside kicks so I was a fan of kicking it deep and leaving it up to the defense to make a play.
Very true. If you think about it though, there really isn't a wrong answer since the Lions didn't have a field goal kicker. If we onside kick and they recover and are in field goal range, there's no way Suh/punter makes a field goal from 35 yards out (assuming a first down or two with Stanton at the helm) let alone a 50 yarder. I would have kicked deep though, way too much time left with 2 clock stoppages.
Yeah, but then the Lions punt and try to pin the Jets inside the 5. Plus, being on the plus 35, I doubt play-action is mentioned once by the Lions' staff. They'd, or I'd, try to pin you deep and force you to go 60 yards in a minute. Honestly, I didn't understand why the Jets ran the ball with 40 seconds left on the Lions 28. Don't you try to win the game right there?
Probably safer to get in solid field goal-range than to force the issue with a TD, especially considering the Jets had no time-outs. The risk of turnover plays into it as well, Sanchez isn't Peyton Manning..
Towards the end of the fourth quarter, still down by 10, I thought that if, by some miracle, the Jets took it to overtime, there could only be one winner. I felt that the Lions did what bad teams so often do, tightened up when in sight of an upset win. They stopped playing on offense (losing Stafford put the icing on that but they'd gone conservative earlier than that) and I thought they would start to loosen up on defense. When we got the TD I thought that kicking deep was the sensible option. The Lions were just going to try to run the clock down. They had lost all momentum and trying an onside kick might give them that momentum back. So I can honsetly say I thought kicking off normally was the sensible option. The Lions had retreated into their shell so much we just had to push them over. We didn't need to do much, just wait for them to implode, which they did.
This is a classic debate but the correct anser, IMO, is very obvious. If you are kicking off prior to the two minute warning, and have at least 1 timeout, you kick deep, no questions asked. There are several reasons for this: 1) Onside kicks are an extremely low percentage play in the NFL. Thus, Chances are very high that, after your feeble onside attempt, your opponent will be getting the ball around your 40 yard line. This field position gives the other team a huge advantage when trying to run out the clock. Why? Because now they potentially have the option of using all 4 downs to pick up the game-clinching first down and run out the clock. (See our divisional playoff game against San Diego as a classic example - if Norv Turner had elected to kick deep instead of trying the onside kick, the Jets would have almost definitely punted on 4th and 1 instead of going for it. Rex just couldn't have justified going for it deep in his own territory. He only did that because we were inside the Charger 40 yard line and we would sill have had a shot to stop them from getting into field goal range even if they had stopped us on 4th and 1) 2) Once you fail the onside kick, even if you stop the other team and force a 3 and out, you are very likely going to get terrible field position, needing to drive somewhere near the entire length of the field to tie or win the game. Field position is never more critical than on the last drive of the game. If you just kick it deep and then get the same 3 and out, you'll get average to good to possibly very good field position. 3) The Onside kick is a desperate play. You only play desperately when you are actually desperate. If you fail to recover it (again, a very likely outcome), you hault your own team's momentum and give the other team a boost of confidence. Comebacks are like avalanches, and when you fail on an onside kick attempt, you slow down your own avalanche.
You only onside kick when it's completely necessary because of time or you it's your only chance to swing momentum away from the opposing offense. Neither was the case yesterday.
Our defense >>>>>>>> their rushing offense, especially vs. a 3rd string QB Have to kick there. With our defense, maybe this is just blind optimism, I'd kick it in that situation regardless of who was out there. But, yesterday, I would have been pissed if they on-sided it. And with Rex, for sure a defensive coach, I knew we'd kick.
Actually, it shouldn't have made any difference if they didn't have Stafford. The Lions did the Jets a huge favor by passing on third down. If they run the ball there, Jets get the ball with less than a minute, and the tying FG is much tougher.
With a very good defense and timeouts, the correct decision was to kick deep. Onside kicking in situations where onside kicks are expected are a low percentage proposition.
we only had ONE timeout left I believe. we got really lucky with their stupid 3rd down pass; if they had killed the clock, like most teams would, it would've been much more difficult to come back.
