I've been thinking a lot about what we should be expecting from our 2nd year QB this season. My gut tells me that he should be a better QB, but that we probably shouldn't expect him to be significantly better until year three. To put a little more context into my thought process I want to take a look at the top 10 QB's from last season (based solely on yardage) to see how their 2nd season with significant playing time compared to their first season with significant playing time. Now obviously their are many, many variables involved and every situation is unique but I figured any context is better than no context. The most significant variable may be years on the bench before significant playing time which unfortunately not many relate to Sanchez (0). Code: Year G GS Comp Att Comp Pt Yards Avg TD INT P. Manning 1998 16 16 326 575 56.7 3,739 6.5 26 28 1999 16 16 331 533 62.1 4,135 7.8 26 15 *D. Brees 2002 16 16 320 526 60.8 3,284 6.2 17 16 2003 11 11 205 356 57.6 2,108 5.9 11 15 *B. Favre 1992 15 13 302 471 64.1 3,227 6.9 18 13 1993 16 16 318 522 60.9 3,303 6.3 19 24 *A. Rodgers 2008 16 16 341 536 63.6 4,038 7.5 28 13 2009 16 16 350 541 64.7 4,434 8.2 30 7 *T. Brady 2001 15 14 264 413 63.9 2,843 6.9 18 12 2002 16 16 373 601 62.1 3,764 6.3 28 14 *M. Schaub 2007 11 11 192 289 66.4 2,241 7.8 9 9 2008 11 11 251 380 66.1 3,043 8.0 15 10 *P. Rivers 2006 16 16 284 460 61.7 3,388 7.4 22 9 2007 16 16 277 460 60.2 3,152 6.9 21 15 *T. Romo 2006 16 10 220 337 65.3 2,903 8.6 19 13 2007 16 16 335 520 64.4 4,211 8.1 36 19 B. Roethlisberger 2004 14 13 196 295 66.4 2,621 8.9 17 11 2005 12 12 168 268 62.7 2,385 8.9 17 9 E. Manning 2004 9 7 95 197 48.2 1,043 5.3 6 9 2005 16 16 294 557 52.8 3,762 6.8 24 17 -------------- M. Sanchez 2009 15 15 196 364 53.8 2,444 6.7 12 20 * - Sat at least one season before seeing significant playing time. Some initial thoughts: Only 3 had significant playing time in their rookie seasons. 7/10 had their completion percentage drop from year 1 to year 2. 7/10 had their TD/INT ratio improve from year 1 to year 2. Most of these were significant. 7/10 increased their passing yards from year 1 to year 2. Assuming Sanchez falls into the 7/10 on all three of those categories, we could expect his numbers to be something like this: Code: 2010 16 16 ? ? 51.2 3,200 16 10 I think I'd be fine with those numbers for year two. Clearly this isn't a detailed analysis or anything, I just wanted to throw some data out there and see what kind of ideas we may be able to draw from this.
I honestly didn't expect this thread till the season started....and people started bashing Sanchez for a shitty game or two. I'm with you on your projections, Willie. I don't expect Sanchez to be magical this season...but i expect marginal improvement. I hope he doesn't take the step back, like Matt Ryan did in his 2nd season (last year). Year 3 will be the litmus test.
I agree with all of this. One thing that's important to remember is that Sanchez has much less experience than most of the other QBs on the list, being only a 1 year starter in college. So he may have more room to improve from year one to year two than some of the other guys on that list.
Nice analysis. I agree that I don't expect a dramatic improvement this year. I'd honestly be happy if his TDs and INTs were the same number. Somewhere around 16 of each and I'd be good. I don't see any way that his TDs aren't above 12 this year. 12 in a year is pretty bad. I still think he's going to be prone to the INT. I really think its unrealistic to expect his TDs to outnumber the INTs by a whole lot.
I'm not sure guys like Rodgers, Rivers, and Schaub merit any comparison. They had multiple seasons as backups to learn the game mentally before going into that first season in which they had to put it all together physically as a starting QB. It's natural to expect big improvement from Season 1 to Season 2 in that situation. Sanchez is on a vastly different learning curve.
I think a lot of people are expecting an MVP type season with the addition of LT and Santonio Holmes but I think its much more reasonable to see Sanchez cut back on his interceptions and just improve as a leader this season. I also wouldn't be surprised to see his completion percentage drop just because its pretty obvious that they're going to let him air it out a bit more as opposed to last season.
I would love to see him get that completion % up closer to 60 but i think your projection is closer to what reality will be. The team surrounding him is good enough to win without him lighting it up if he keeps the turnovers down. i'll take the awful completion % if he can keep his int's to 10 or less.
The one thing with those numbers it that Sanchez should NOT have a 51% completion percentage... I could see it if we had an average talented passing offense... but as it is we have a highly talented ball control offense... the Jets will only take shots when they feel they can exploit a mismatch... otherwise we're going to see a lot of "Pennington-esque" type plays in the passing game. If Sanchez has a 51% completion percentage, its a disaster. I expect Sanchez to make a moderate improvement over last year... think the way he played in the playoffs but heap on interceptions. He doesn't look like his field vision is sharp enough yet to avoid that so I could see him throwing around 15 or so... hopefully on the lower end rather than the higher.
With all the offseason moves on the offensive side of the ball....Sanchez has clearly been put in a position to be successful. Whether he takes that and runs with it...is up to him. We all heard the reports of Sanchez spending the offseason in the film room and studying the playbook. I'm hoping the hard work pays off sooner rather than later. But I also won't throw him under the bus if he falters somewhat....like Iggy said, he's on a different learning curve than QBs who spent their first few years as backups.
I agree for the most part. If I spent more time I could have gone back and found only QB's that started as a rookie for a better comparison. I thought this was a good place to start - maybe I'll do that tonight if I feel like it.
I actually don't, I was just projecting based on the observations I made by putting him in the 70% of the QB's groups. I thought it was interesting that 70% of the QB's in that list had a lower completion percentage in year two. I think it's safe to assume he will buck the trend in that category given how low he was last season.
The play-book will really open up for him this year and he'll have to think a lot faster. Will he be able to do that? NO IDEA... I hope so! I think he'll throw a similar number of TDs and INT (17-15/16-16), at least 3'000 yds and I hope his completion percentage goes up a little (60.0 would be great, but 58.0 reasonable). My guess is he throws about 400 attempts... maaaybe a little more...
This. Even with all his picks last year, we ran 1,030 offensive plays. He should cut down on the picks, and rely a bit on the short passing game. His Completion % should be north of 63%, and look for him to put it up 450 times or so. (Based on about 1100 offensive snaps) We ran it close to 60% last year, that number will climb down a tad as the short passing game starts to get utilized.
People keep talking about a step back for Sanchez, but if he does that, then he should be BENCHED. He was terrible last year. He literally cost us the Saints, Bills, Jaguars, Patriots AND Falcons games. The only games where Sanchez played great and or at least good and we lost were the 2 Dolphins games. He played good enough in the playoffs for everyone to forget the regular season, but he was terrible. And i like the kid, just being honest.
Who exactly would you bench him for? Brunell looks like he might effectively lead a high school team, and while Clemens has looked good this preseason he is your classical loser in every sense of the word.
In a perfect world Sanchez would not have started last year, but he did. No matter what his stat line says we were 1 half away from the Super Bowl. I know our rushing and defense carried us but Mark did not blow it for us when it counted. I expect him to emerge especially in the first few games just like last year. I'm hoping this year the slumps do not last games, only a series or two. That's what I hope for and expect. I know he's not breaking records this year, but if he has more TD's then INT's at every point in the season I'll be a happy man.
