That seems to be a theory that can be proven right or wrong using historical data. Shaun Alexander had a less productive rookie season than did Greene. Alexander: regular season- 64 rushes, 313 yds, 4.9 avg, 2 TDs; postseason- none Greene: regular season- 108 rushes, 540 yds, 5.0 avg, 2 TDs; postseason- 54 rushes, 304 yds, 5.6 avg, 2 TDs In Alexander's second season he had 309 carries for 1318 yards and 14 touchdowns. Delvin Williams' first 3 seasons- rookie year- 36 carries, 5.6 avg 2nd year- 117 carries, 5.4 avg 3rd year- 248 carries, 4.9 avg Wilbert Montgomery had 45 carries as a rookie. The next year he had 259 carries and was a 2nd team All-NFL selection behind Williams and Earl Campbell. The following year Montgomery had 338 carries and again was a 2nd team All-NFL choice. Chris Warren was a seldom-used backup for two years and then got a starting job in his 3rd year and ran well. Leroy Kelly had 43 total carries his first two years. Replacing Jim Brown, in his third year he ran 209 times for 1141 yards. He led the league in rushing average and touchdowns. Those are all examples of runners who made successful transitions from backups to starters. LaMont Jordan had a mediocre season when he got his first starting role. Derrick Ward was a disappointment for the Buccs last year. You seem to think that there are more than just a couple backs who could not make the transition from backup to starter. I'm trying to think of others, but none are coming to mind at this time.
Who among these players were sidelined by injuries in training camp, again in the middle of their rookie season and finally in the season's last and most important game?
You might as well have asked me who was born in New Jersey on August 21 and played college football in Iowa. You wrote that the transition from part time back to 250+ carry back was not easy if the guy is injury prone, but you also wrote that all running backs play with injuries.
Actually this is what I wrote: The meaning is pretty clear: all runningbacks tend to play with some level of injuries and physical discomfort. The ones who can play through the noise can make the transition to full time play, the ones who can't can't. Greene is one of the ones who can't based on what happened last season. Your counter examples didn't include people who were conspicuously injured during part-time play in their rookie seasons the way that Greene was.
You wrote that ^ and then I wrote this... You wrote that the transition from part time back to 250+ carry back was not easy if the guy is injury prone, but you also wrote that all running backs play with injuries. Yes? Yes? "All runningbacks tend to play with ... injuries..." I, apparently, misinterpreted what you wrote when I wrote that you wrote, "all running backs play with injuries." Ugghh.
I tried to get you to mention some other backs who were unable to make the transition. If it is truly something you have learned over the years, then you should be able to provide a list of some guys who could not make the transition. I'm not trying to be a smart aleck here. I want to know if there really is something to this idea of part-time youngster with injury problems who then gets a starting job and can't handle it. I actually did not want the Jets to draft Greene. I made some anti-Greene comments before the draft and wanted the Jets to draft Austin Collie on day 2 of the '09 draft. Interesting how one came through in the AFC Championship Game and the other didn't.
Ricky Bell, Lorenzo White, Anthony Johnson, T.J. Duckett, Ron Dayne, Kevin Faulk, Steve Owens and... I'm not wasting any more of a perfectly good morning on this. The number of NFL backs who looked good in a situational role behind the starter and then couldn't handle the fulltime job due to the wear and tear is endless. I left out the surprise backs who came out of nowhere. All of the guys above were drafted 4th round or earlier. Their teams all expected them to be able to handle a full time role when they were thrust into it by circumstance and they failed to make the transition. The idea that you would argue the reverse: that it is the norm for a young back to make the transition to fulltime duty is kind of strange. It's easier to pick out the guys who made it, since you can just scan by the 2 and 3 year careers without marking them. It's kind of like saying it's easy to make the 300 homerun list as a young power hitter based on scanning down the list until you get to 300 and then not looking below that. BTW, many NFL teams wouldn't have tried to hand Shonn Greene the job in the offseason based on what happened last year. That also suppresses the overall data available, since it's kind of a given that teams without an established back capable of handling the load will tend to have a strong group of prospects heading into camp to compete. I'm getting Parcells-No backup QB-heading into '99-type vibes from their stance so far.
Ricky Bell didn't look good as a rookie or 2nd-year back. He did not play well until he was in his third year. Therefore, Bell doesn't work as a good example for you. Lorenzo White was drafted in the 1st round in '88. Houston backs in '88- Rozier 1002 yards, 4.0 avg; Pinkett 513 yds, 4.2 avg; Highsmith 466 yds, 5.0 avg; White 115 yds, 3.7 avg. In 1989, White received more action but still put up pedestrians numbers (104 att, 349 yds, 6 catches). In 1990 he became the starter and had a nice season. White does not work as a good example for you, either. Anthony Johnson played in all 16 games as a rookie. He had 0 carries and 5 catches. That team featured Eric Dickerson (677 rush yds) and Albert Bentley (556 rush yds, 664 rec yds) in the backfield. The following year the team blew, Dickerson had a bad year, and Bentley was lost for the season due to an injury suffered in Week 1. Johnson finally got some real action (22 rushes, 42 receptions). In his third season he became a regular starter but did not do anything special. Similar to Bell and White, Johnson did not look good in a situational role behind the starter. Unlike Bell and White, Johnson did not look good when he eventually became a starter. T.J. Duckett was a backup for much of his career. He is a tough player to evaluate for what we're discussing here. rookie year- 11 games, 3 starts- 130 att, 507 yds, 3.9 avg 2nd year- 16 games, 10 starts- 197 att, 779 yds, 4.0 avg 3rd year- 13 games, 0 starts- 104 att, 509 yds, 4.9 avg Duckett's best seasons were his 2nd and 3rd ones. In his 2nd one he started more than half the season due in large part to Warrick Dunn missing significant action due to injury. Ron Dayne was drafted in the 1st round and had a ho-hum at best rookie campaign. It was also Tiki Barber's breakout season. I don't recall Dayne looking good in a situational role and then getting a starting job and crapping his pants. Later on in his career he had a fine Thanksgiving Day game for Denver and about a half season of quality play for Houston. But again, he never really looked special in a backup role for N.Y. only to then shit the bed when given a starting role. Kevin Faulk is your best example. He was supposed to be great, but then underwhelmed his final couple seasons at LSU. Drafted in the 2nd round in 1999, he averaged 3.4 yards per carry on 67 rushes in his rookie season. The next year he started 9 games and had a mediocre season (570 rush yds, 3.5 avg; 51 receptions). Aside from a start here and there, Faulk's been a backup ever since and a good one at that. Steve Owens is another bad example. He was a 1st team All-NFC selection by the Associated Press for the 1971 season, which was Owens' 2nd season in the NFL and his first as a starter. In 1971, Owens became the first ever Lion to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and this was back when 1,000 rushing yards was a big deal. In 1970, the Lions went to the playoffs. Mel Farr (717 rush yds, 4.3 avg) and Altie Taylor (666 rush yds, 3.4 avg) were the starters. Owens only had 36 carries and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. He really didn't show anything as a rookie and then played well in his second season.
Yeah, except it is not strange. Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall (absolutely nothing as a rookie before being injured), Michael Turner, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, and Jamaal Charles are all active RBs who showed nice glimpses in backup roles early in their careers and/or had some injury issues early in their careers only to quickly (except for Turner) get a starting role and perform well.
