It's a slow TGG day, so forgive me if I rehash some of the things that have been spoken about already in other threads. As much as I love to buy into the hype that we have been getting for this outstanding off-season, I have to try to remain objective about a lot of things. Rex is a second year coach and Sanchez is a second year QB, and if you look at trends, this doesn't always bode well for teams. Defensive Sophomore Slump The league will now have an entire season of film on Rex's schemes in NY and an entire off-season to try to pick that film apart. He and Pettine are no doubt tailoring new schemes to our new personnel, which is heartening, but we still lack a dominating 4-man rush and that is the true sign of an elite defense. So Rex, with his newly-bolstered secondary, will again be sending the house all day long. I happen to think that Rex and Pettine are up to the task in avoiding a slump on the defense, especially with the addition of a 3rd down rushing specialist in Scissor Me Xerxes... but with Jenkins continuing to be an injury concern, I don't love the idea of having to depend on Pouha and Devito as the DT rotation in an ad hoc 4DL set like we saw much of the time after Jenks went down in 2010. Is Cromartie the real deal? I have kind of a Lito Sheppard feeling about Cromartie, although I wasn't much of a fan of the trade to begin with. And I don't mean that to say that I think he'll be injured, but he had a dominant season in 2007 (much like Shep's last dominant season in '06) and we are expecting him to return to that form. Say what you want about zone defense in San Diego, the guy lacked a lot of fire during the season and got called out for it in the locker room by his teammates. We all want to chalk it up to a bad situation in SD, and we all hope that a) Rex lights a fire under him and b) a change of scenery and a change of defensive philosophy is what it will take to turn him into a beast. Kind of like Sheppard. Well, with Revis on the other side of him, we're going to find out real quick who the real Cromartie is. Balance On Offense I'm still not sold on Brian Schottenheimer yet. He let Sanchez fling it into oblivion in 2009 until Rex was forced to step in and put some reins on the rookie. Most people, myself included, wanted to believe that Schotty's experiences with Brees and Rivers had prepared him to deal with grooming a franchise QB, but I didn't see it. He threw Sanchez to the dogs and it cost us games. The excuse, most times, was that we didn't have the right weapons for his system to run that WCO/Air Coryell hybrid that he runs, and now that excuse is out the window. What I would like to see from Schotty is not total Ground and Pound to the point where we have a starting caliber wideout sitting on the bench every single play, and not a pass-happy spread like a guy like Martz would use with these weapons at his disposal. Something in-between, which we would get in a perfect world. I want to see ingenuity from an OC that has shown a little ingenuity and a lot of mind-numbing trickery. Schotty is on the hot seat this year. The Old and The New Including Cro, the Jets will have 5 or more new starters in 2010. Not as many as last season, be these new starters will be key - RB, LG, RDE, 2CB, FS. I don't think we are going to have a ton of issues with Pool unless he starts getting nicked up. As he is, he will be at least as good as Rhodes was in 2009. Greene is a similar concern, with much more upside - he gets nicked up, but when healthy he is a ferocius runner. I am assuming that Devito is going to get the nod as RDE, but there might be a wildcard at that position, whether it be Rodrique Wright, Pitoitua, or a FA we haven't picked up yet. I think Pouha will end up being in the rotation with Jenkins more than playing at end, although he'll probably see time there. We need a guy at the end that can get penetration - that's why he brought Marquez Douglas in last season - and Pouha isn't really capable in that department. Left Guard is probably the biggest concern on the team for me. I knew that Faneca was the weak link on the OL, but that doesn't make it any easier to transition to a young, inexperienced player, whether it be Ducasse or Slauson. I think it'll be Slauson, mainly because of his experience with the Callahan zone schemes and a year being groomed in the system already. Ducasse is a massive physical specimen, and intelligent by all accounts, but I don't like the idea of starting a guy this raw on the left side, next to Brick who is a mediocre run blocker. I think that would hurt both the passing and running games. Does Mark Sanchez Live Up To The Hype? Sanchez showed me a lot of poise in the post-season, but he also had some confusingly errant throws that would have been disastrous, had the been a foot to the left or the right. That's not to say he was bad, just lucky, which you need to be when you want to win in January. He is going to have an entire off-season to truly learn his playbook, to study the hell out of film, and to rehab. But none of that is a substitute for practice, especially with this many new faces in the offensive backfield, and with a new receiver ni Holmes, and with a relatively new receiver in Edwards. He needs more time than he is going to get with these guys this Spring and Summer. So I expect him to come out of the gate slowly. But he's going to need the game to slow down for him a lot more than it did in 2009 /10 if he is going to take a step forward this year. I think the Jets are in a great position to contend in 2010, but they still have more chips against them than most perennial contenders - the Jets are New Money. Time to rise to the task and beat the bluebloods at their own game.
I agree with alllllll of that. We're New Money, no doubt, but we're also a team that should be hungry. Young and hungry. I am excited. A bit anxious, but mostly excited.
I think Shotty really proved his worth to this organization late in the year last year. He was dealing with a rookie QB, a new receiver in Edwards, and a new RB in Greene and by the end of the season that offense was a pretty well oiled machine. I've had serious issues with Shotty the past few years. I don't think he ever learned how to properly use Pennington, and he clearly didn't know how to use Leon last year before the injury. However, I think he became very comfortable with our offensive personnel by the last few weeks of the regular season, and as long as he figures out how to properly use all of our receiving weapons I think he'll do pretty damn well this year.
I think Schotty became comfortable when it started working, but he had his hands cuffed by Rex. There wasn't near as much trickery as there had been, and the trick plays that he used were higher percentage plays - he cut the reverses out a lot. Same with the passing plays, you didn't really see anymore retarded sets with Hartsock or a runningback as the sole wideout on the left side. Rex said that he installed that color code system, and just sat into meetings - and I think that was more out of respect to Schotty. But he also said that he hadn't been involved in the offensive side of things and he had to learn how the better be the Head Coach. I read between the lines and what I get is that he needed to manage his offensive coaches better, rather than be hands-off. Brian Schottenheimer is obviously a very smart guy, and I think there is a lot of good that he can do. But I am not going all-in with this guy until he is able to put together a smart game without having his ability to coach his QB called publicly into question by his HC. Schotty definitely got a pass from me after the playoffs (although he should have opened things up in the second half against the Colts when our running game died), but he is far from out of the woods as far as I am concerned.
Thanks a lot abyzmul. All of that had been tugging at the back of my brain these past few months, but I had refused to let any of it to the surface. Now that you've forced it up, I can slouch through the rest of the off-season the way I always do: believing that no matter how great things are going, we're always one moment away from complete disaster. Nah, screw that. I'm all in. Jets Super Bowl or bust!
That second half of the AFC Championship game was ugly. I actually got very frustrated watching ( fan since 1980) because I feared what we all feared; get a lead and try to sit on it (i.e. 1998). You just can't get to and win the Superbowl playing that way. It looks like the organization realizes we have to get better offensively (balanced) to win a championship. Gentlemen, we have to get a serviceable backup at QB. Sanchez has knee issues that may come to haunt us in the middle of a difficult schedule. It seems as if the NFL is setting us up to either become a big success or fail miserably. The HBO show and the increased exposure on prime time TV.
Sanchez' knees bother me a lot. They downplay it and I know surgical science has come a long way, but Sanchez is a mobile QB and he has problems with both knees before we even draft him. I have no fear about his ability to develop into a top 5 QB. I have less confidence about his ability to stay healthy enough to do it.
I think the key thing is that Tannenbaum has raised the overall talent level to the point where the Jets should be able to compete for the playoffs/division every year unless the team gets destroyed by injuries. The defense should be good enough to give the team a pretty good chance to beat most teams as long as the offense doesn't turn the ball over 32 times or whatever it was. The real issue is the development of Sanchez. The rules favor the qb's and the passing game and you really can't stop Brees, Manning and Brady. You have to be able to score a lot of points to stay in the game with those teams. You have to be able to consistently move the ball quickly if you need to score quickly. This is the one thing working against the Jets is that they have a young qb that will still probably implode and lose a game or two this year.
My biggest concern at the moment is that the Jet's offense will wind up looking like a bad version of the 2009 Chargers. I'm ok with the Faneca cut, because if the Jets can replace him adequately they've opened the window a bit wider for 2012 and 2013. I have issues with going into the season with only Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson as proven NFL backs. Greene is still questionable from a toughness standpoint after his rookie season was interrupted several times by nagging injuries and Tomlinson is likely over the hill and unable to function as a main back out of the backfield. If everything goes according to plan then Greene will be capable of taking 300 carries next season and Tomlinson will be the main third down back with a light workload on the ground. That scenario would see the Jets compete for a Super Bowl title. If Green goes down then it all falls apart and Sanchez spends most of next season dropping back against a 6 man coverage scheme and we just hope that he's Philip Rivers incarnate. The only thing that could stop the Jets defense from being dominant next year is if the offense can't hold onto the ball.
Sanchez will no doubt have setbacks this year, it's to be expected. But Rex and Tanny and the brain trust upstairs are some forward-thinking mofo's, that is certain. Rex loves his running game and he loves his passing defense, so they went out and overhauled both units. The Jets had the top-ranked passing D and Peyton Manning picked it apart - the top ranked running game and it got nicked and shut down. You know that had to twist in Rex's huge gut like a knife. So they addressed needs with trades and FA and they stacked their strengths in the draft. I am not down on this upcoming season, although this thread would make people think that. I laugh when I read some idiot rival fans on another board saying the Jets are a one-shot deal Super Bowl or bust and rebuild after 2010. This team is being built as a contender to stay, and they have the coaching and leadership to do it.
i still think running back is an overrated position. The Jets offensive line made thomas jones look like an elite rb. Imagine how good they could make a rb look that is 22 and has fresh legs? A good offensive line can make average backs look very good. Running back is the easiest position to fill, and I agree Tomlinson and Mcknight as a rookie probably are best off not running between the tackles at this point, but if they had to get another running back either through free agency or a trade I don't think it would be that difficult.
I think the Greene injury concerns are valid, and I also think that's one of the reasons that they cut that deal for Holmes so quickly. Sanchez isn't going to be Rivers incarnate in his second season, and they saw that our offense was deader than dogshit the moment Greene left the game against the Colts. The Jets may not be a scary passing team at this point, but if our runners get scraped, and it's past week 4, we at least have a puncher's chance of putting points on the scoreboard.
I agree with you. They built this team through the draft (Brick, Mangold, Smith/Smith, Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez, Greene, Slauson and the four guys they just drafted) for the long term. All you can do as a gm is try to keep a good balance of the long term and short term and give your team a chance to compete every season. The jets have a strong foundation from Woody (great job with the new facilities and he seems to be willing to do anything to win), Tannenbaum, Rex and Sanchez. They have a new stadium, new training facility, excellent coaching staff and front office. I do not think they have a 1 or 2 year window. I still don't view them as any type of favorite to win the super bowl this year. As i said earlier, until Sanchez is ready to keep up with the elite qb's the Jets are going to have a tough time beating those teams.
it's amazing how well tanny has this set up. the comparisons to the redskins past off-seasons are laughable. the core of the team are all young and the gaps have been in filled in with reasonably priced veterans. next year we will probably see them address another few needs in the draft while still bolstering the defensive backfield and the offense. what they don't get to in the draft will once again be filled in by another reasonably priced veteran. i kinda like how they are slowly integrating the youth into the team while still getting solid value from some older guys.
It worries me, too, but there's not much the Jets can do. They have a 2nd round pick last year, one of the most productive backs in NFL history, and a 4th round pick they are high on. That's three runningbacks they have faith in, plus Chauncey Washington also having earned praise from Tannenbaum in the past. That's enough resources in one position, even if Greene, LT, and McKnight all have concerns. Plus, our offensive line should be good enough where we can plug most backs in there and do okay.
You can never have too many legitimately good football threads in May. Thank you for this, sir. Now to address what you've written... I think the sophomore slump is going to happen, though not to a large extent. The reason I see this happening is not because opposing coordinators will figure out Rex's schemes so much as it will be due to team's keying on the weaknesses of the Jets' defensive personnel. I think opposing teams will notice the lack of ability to generate pressure sans blitzes (which honestly is the only significant weakness this team has) and may test the DL on a case by case basis (ie run a hurry up and test Jenkins conditioning or running right at whoever starts at RDE). You can only hide so much with scheming and while I expect Rex to do that, there will still be some warts this year. Cromartie is a different type of animal than Sheppard in that he's not as physical and is far more athletic. Sheppard was, in his prime, a very good press corner (as all talented corners from the Eagles have to be) but as he aged and his foot speed slowed his physical play got a little too physical; this is why we saw all the pass interference calls as well as him simply getting beat if he couldn't get his hands on an opposing WR. Cromartie is an athletic risk taker and I fully expect him to make some beautiful interceptions by cutting off hot routes when a Rex Ryan blitz gets home. I also expect him to get burnt for a number of big plays (mostly giving the 10 yard reception on 3rd and 8). I think he'll be feast or famine, but he'll be better than Lito. The biggest issue, I think, is contained in your 3rd and 5th points. Schotty and Sanchez. Sanchez (in the eyes of someone that measures everything he sees in the NFL through parallels he understands, namely those that have occurred on the Giants) reminds me a bit of a younger Eli in that he has a propensity to try too hard to "make a play." Eli's INT numbers are down because he has stopped trying to make the nigh-impossible throws and is okay with checking down, throwing the ball away, or even taking a sack. This is a direct result of Kevin Gilbride being promoted from QB coach to OC; he got all over Eli after every boneheaded play he made. Sanchez needs to be reigned in as well. While I don't think Sanchez has as strong an arm as Eli (his golden arm being what lured Eli into attempting less than likely to be successful passes) I think his ability to scramble & buy time can lead to, more or less, the same negatives. Schotty needs to be very assertive and be all over Sanchez's nuts whenever he throws a pick because his pass lost some velocity due to him being on the run, or when he's stripped of the ball because he was running around in the pocket and didn't keep his arms "high and tight." The Jets are loaded for bear on offense and I think they will only be as good as Mark Sanchez lets them be. In keeping with that, I think Sanchez will only be as good as Schotty makes him be.
I'm not worried about a defensive sophomore slump. Rex has been coaching great defense for how many years straight? All I know is it's a lot. Plus, we've stacked the secondary without losing anyone important.
