Even if they aren't indicative of their scouting/drafting ability, trading away your draft picks still showcases an ability to get value for those picks. It should at least be mentioned, as I said before, though you don't have to allow that factor to contribute to the argument. Still, you can't just ignore the fact that they've parlayed their draft picks can't just be looked past because it is relevant.
I agree... they did the same thing this year (IMO) getting McCourty (a guy wh can have success on ST and in a certain system) while leaving Wilson on the board (with more natural talent but that is more of a star than a system player). To me they're doing it sooo much it has now become a clear mistake in their drafting mentality. You NEED difference makers in the NFL, they already ahve a solid enough foundation. PS thanks for the props
My goal was to answer the questions: 1) How good are the Pats in evaluating college talent? 2) What is the logic behind their selection of college players? (System, Talent, Positional, ecc) Sure, the fact they are very good in evaluating NFL talent and give away draft picks to acquire it is very important in an overall analysis of the off-season... but I only want to analyze a small part of it... the one regarding college players. I do understand that the title can be a bit too generalistic, I apologize for that
Hey, don't infringe on my right to argue with junc! For real though, they do suck at drafting and scouting. I don't think it's in the Al Davis area of awful (where you make controversial solely for the sake of being controversial), I think they are just incompetent and don't select talented players. Belichick is still a great coach, but he's hamstrung by the fact that he has inferior roster to work with, Here's to hoping they never great a real GM!
The Pats always have a ton of picks, but they don't get any impact studs...just some mediocre-nice players. Belichick does have a knack for "gaming" the draft, moving up and down at will and stockpiling picks. As has been mentioned, though, he'd be better off using some of them to trade up for a stud or 2, rather than taking 50 decent-but-not-special players. But, hey, I'm not complaining.
The Pats view the draft as a crap shoot so they would rather not give a lot of money to a draft pick. The more they trade back the more players they get at a cheaper price. If the Jets drafted Gholston in the third round he would be driving a truck right now but instead they have to carry him because of his guaranteed contract. The Patriots love the second round because you get top talent under contract for 4 years at a cheap price. They know a majority of the other gm's and coaches in the leagues will trade away a 1st round pick next year to get a 2nd round pick this year. Why? Because coaches/gm's are afraid of getting fired. BB knows that he could coach the Pats forever so he has an advantage on his competition. He knows this and so does the competition but they continue to hand him future 1st and 2nd round picks like they are candy. Ideally, once you have the talent to compete every year you would prefer to have as many picks between 30-100 as possible. Those picks if your a good drafting team will provide a constant influx of talented players that will barely effect your salary cap. He has figured out how to play the system and it would work except for one small problem..... He seems to draft entirely based on fitting players into his system. So if he finds a dominating pass rushing player, that has one flaw that will prevent him from succeeding in his system, he will pass on him for another undersized fast cornerback. He values system over talent. He definitely drafts some quality players but he has left so many elite players on the board to take guys that are not talented but fit in his system. I also find it interesting how so many of his draft picks wind up on the injured reserve list. Does the league actually check to see if all of these guys are hurt or if they are just being hidden away for a year? Belicheck is a great football mind and I give him a lot of credit for some of his draft picks (Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Mankins and the other lineman). He does seem to do a good job identifying lineman that can fit in his schemes. At the end of the day he got caught cheating even after he was warned. The league destroyed the evidence which makes it seem even worse. I can't give him a pass like all the pats* homers do because he was warned to stop doing it. He lucked out that a 6th round pick become one of the best QBs ever to play the game. If they had any idea he could even play in the NFL they would have drafted him a lot earlier then the 6th round.
This just shows how much better Tannenbaum's draft strategy is than everyone else's. Clearly, it's much more important to get one or two franchise cornerstones in the draft than to trade down for more and more picks, but end up with guys who are going to be backups or off the team in a few years. Just think that since 2006, the Pats have drafted Gostkwoski, Mayo, and Meriweather, and a whole bunch of backups, in the same amount of time the Jets have gotten (with way fewer picks) Ferguson, Mangold, Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez, and Greene - that's 7 franchise players, compared to 3 for NE. And Tannenbaum traded up to get 5 of those guys. That right there is the difference that's allowed the Jets to catch up to the Pats since their SB-dominance to now. And I think it's fair to call Maroney a bust considering he's never had more than 835 yards in a season and has averaged under 4 YPC two years in a row.
This is an interesting thread, but I'd make a few suggestions, one I think you need to find some stats on the general success rate of picks by round in the NFL. I think if we can get that information it will change how you look at the Pats drafts. 2006 was pretty clearly a very poor draft regardless. But 2007 really skews overall numbers because it is a draft where almost all their picks were very late, and it was clear they tried to trade out as much as possible (made only 4 non comp picks). 2008 was a strong draft, and if there is progress from wheatley or crable it becomes very good. Though 2 years isn't really enough time to evaluate a draft beyond immediate stars and immediate busts. 2009 is definitely too early to tell, but Butler started5 games, had 3 picks and 8 deflections that's a very solid rookie year. Brace was a bit of a disappointment so far. Chung was a solid backup. Vollmer was excellent he started 8 games including the playoff game. Edelman was surprisingly good as was pryor. It's way too early to make a judgment but that looks like a very good draft. So really the last 4 years looks like this: Terrible, Mediocre (hit the only major pick), promising, promising. Edit- can't find a site with success rate by round, but take a look at 2007's draft, from the Pats 4th on it's a wasteland. laron mcclain, clint session, william gay, steve breaston, a few TEs(celek most notably) kickers, ahmad bradshaw,ndukew
First I want to say great thread. It is readily apparent that from 2006 on, BB has drafted poorly. I think his efforts to accumulate picks has made him so intent on listening for the phone to ring rather than pick his head up and look @ his board. This year with such a deep draft it was almost like they were scared to make a pick. I think his recent drafts are too helter skelter.. We shall see. I have no idea how all his picks in 10' will fare. It is way too early. I do agree, if you trade players for picks you should at least consider them in an overall draft evaluation. Whether, in a trade for a player or an actual pick, what was obtained with that choice, counts. For instance, even though 2007 was a seeming disaster with the players they picked, factor in Welker and Moss and 2007 is a hell of a lot more palatable for the Pats. I understand Mambo looked at the draft in a vacuum, he was using it as a research tool. However, I am with Giant Fan here. To objectively measure a draft you have to take into account all the moves that encompassed it. It is the sum of all its parts in my opinion. Point being, Holmes and Edwards could and should be factored into any 2010 Jets draft evaluation. Just like next year Cromartie should be considered and whoever else Tannenbaum trades a pick for.
Jets since 2006 1 4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia 1 29 Nick Mangold C Ohio State 2 49 Kellen Clemens QB Oregon 3 76 Anthony Schlegel LB Ohio State 3 97 Eric Smith DB Michigan State 4 103 Brad Smith WR Missouri 4 117 Leon Washington RB Florida State 5 150 Jason Pociask TE Wisconsin 6 189 Drew Coleman CB Texas Christian 7 220 Titus Adams DT Nebraska 1 14 Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh 2 47 David Harris ILB Michigan 6 177 Jacob Bender T Nicholls State 7 235 Chansi Stuckey WR Clemson 1 6 Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State 1 30 Dustin Keller TE Purdue 4 113 Dwight Lowery CB San Jose State 5 162 Erik Ainge QB Tennessee 6 171 Marcus Henry WR Kansas 7 211 Nate Garner T Arkansas 1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC 3 65 Shonn Greene RB Iowa 6 193 Matt Slauson G Nebraska
I was thinking the same thing, good call. Easy way to keep a player and save a roster spot. Sort of like a non practicing practice squad. LOL
Best post in the thread. 2006 was an unmitigated disaster. They took Maroney with other guys on the board who've been much better, including MJ-D, and traded up to get Chad Jackson, which turned out to be one of the worst moves of BB's career. 2007 wasn't great, but as mentioned they got Merriweather with their only "real" pick. He made the Pro Bowl as an alternate last year so I think it's safe to say there's some promise. Far as 2008 goes, when you pick the defensive ROTY, it can't be all bad. Hitting on your first round pick is more important than anything else because that's where your money is going to be locked up. 2009 looks promising. Vollmer should be starting next year, and other guys started making plays as their playing time increased. I'm optimistic about Chung, and Edelman could turn into a major steal. So really it comes down to having one down year, one questionable year, and two years now without immediate impact, but with some potential. I'm not going to sit here and say the Patriots have drafted well, but I also don't think it's as bad as some are making it out to be. As a fan it does drive you crazy to see them trade down, trade down... of course fans want to see them pick up Dez Bryant or some other familiar name. But the NFL draft has become almost a comedy. No one knows what's really going to happen with these guys. Just look at Gholston... the Jets were praised for that pick in draft grade reports.
Belichick takes 'em out back... "Sorry about that hammy, son." "Nothin's wrong with my hammy, coach. What's with the bat?" hmy::smile:
Not sure about the other guys, but mckenzie blew out his knee (ACL tear) in TC, Tate I know was actually on the non-football injury list (he was still hurt from a knee injury in college probably why they got him so late), then he was activated in week 7. In week 9 he blew out his knee on a kick return if I remember correctly.
Ithink if you figure in Welker for a 2nd and 7th, and Moss for a 4th, it looks a little better. I think they knew that anyone from the 4th round on was gonna have a hard time sticking with that loaded team. I think 2006 was alot worse. I think 2008 to today are incomplete because we don't know how good some of those players will be....
I also think that the Pats didn't need to go for homerun type players in the mid 2000's, and the type of player reflects that. Now (2008-09-10), they are thin in alot of areas, they are going for more high draft picks to reload the team. Honestly, even with alot of picks in 06 and 07, how many spots were actually available on those team? 06 is clearly the worst draft of the decade for the Pats IMO.
Here's an article about how much the Patriots have sucked (and that's putting it nicely) at drafting DBs since 2004. I think this in keeps nicely with this thread. http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar..._umpteen-uples_down_on_DBs_in_the_draft_.html
good job bringing us into it. The later rounds have not ben kind to tanny besides Washington so far, but outside of Gholston he is finding very, very good talent in rounds 1 and 2. Brick, Mangold, Revis, and Harris are all pro bowl caliber players. Keller is a good emerging weapon, Sanchez is our Franchise QB and Greene is a starting RB with good power, if he can stay healthy this season. A very good body of work for tanny early on.
