Statistically the COLTS are in Trouble

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Royal Tee, Jan 21, 2010.

  1. TurkJetFan

    TurkJetFan Well-Known Member

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    according to the colts fans they don't have a bye week and play 17 games...hence entering week 16 with 15 wins...

    lets forget the fact that the colts didn't win 15 games this year
     
  2. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    Yeah, we have done it many times too. Colts fans know it when it happens. We go into a shell and put the game in the defense hands. Knowing that teams will have to pass, we feel as if we have the advantage. It?s the way we have built our team. We play better with a lead. We didn't do anything special on offense in the 4th quarter because we actually do run a prevent offense when we are up big late. You won't see us forcing the ball downfield (Vikings) when we are up big late.
     
  3. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    I am not saying you weren't number 1 in defense. But Jets fans seem to be overlooking that we played a top 3 defense last week and moved the ball pretty well, even before we went into a shell in the second half.
     
  4. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    I don't think so, but anything is possible. You guys are a formidable opponent and you have a shot.
     
  5. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    If you add in last weeks win then we are 15-2.

    *We waived the white flag in the 2 losses.
     
  6. TurkJetFan

    TurkJetFan Well-Known Member

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    ohh ok so by your accounts the Colts had an undefeated season?
     
  7. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    Nope. We went 14-2 in the regular season. We are now 15-2 and hosting the AFCCG.

    Do I feel as if we could have won the last two games? Hell yeah. I think we could have. I think the front office made the right choice not to go for it though. We were pretty banged up at the end of the year and the rest is going to really help us. We had some rust last week, but we played well. This week I expect to see us running at full speed. Who knows what we will see until we play the game? That's why they play the games.
     
  8. WhiteShoeWillis

    WhiteShoeWillis Well-Known Member

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    OK, they're #3 overall, but when facing the Colts you need to be best at what? Defending the pass, right?

    Code:
    	YPG	TDs
    Ravens	207.2	17
    Jets	153.7	8
    
    Ravens allowed 53.5 more passing yards per game and a little more than a TD more per game. Yea, they're #3 overall but there pass D is NO WHERE NEAR the Jets pass D. That's why the Jets matchup well against teams that are pass heavy with not much of a run game.
     
  9. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    I acknowledged the Jets had the number 1 defense in the NFL (statistically) during the regular season.

    Let?s look at the playoffs - against playoff teams:

    Colts are giving up 86 rushing yards a game (4.6 per carry)
    Jets are giving up 116 rushing yards a game (5.8 per carry) <---ouch

    COLTS +1

    Colts pass defense 183.0 yards per game.
    Jets pass defense 196.5 yards per game

    COLTS +1

    Colts points allowed per game: 3
    Jets points allowed per game: 14

    COLTS +1

    So according to your stat guy, the Jets statistically are in trouble.
     
  10. WhiteShoeWillis

    WhiteShoeWillis Well-Known Member

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    And tried to say the Ravens are comparable, when there pass defense clearly is not comparable. No ones is. This is the point I'm trying to drive home.

    Teams tend to give up on the run when they're down 2 scores late. This is the Colts best defense. If you guys are up a couple of scores late, we're likely f'd.

    Also, the Jets rush yards against is so poor because Cedric Benson gashed us. The Colts don't have anyone near his ability and likely won't commit to the run.



    Yup. The Ravens broken QB and dominant WR's are clearly on the same level as the Chargers and Bengals.
     
  11. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

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    Colt fans are so sure they're going to win, too funny :lol:
     
  12. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    Peyton put up about 200 yards in just two and a half quarters against you guys so how is this an issue?

    This is another major advantage for us. We can come back against anyone. You don?t have that luxury.

    If you guys try and drop into coverage then you are going to see our best running game.

    He didn?t look broken to me. We even had him scrambling out of the pocket. He was throwing the ball with power and able to step into his throws. I think you think it helps you make your case to dramatize him being injured. Who isn?t banged up this time of year?
     
  13. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    I am not sure of anything, but I love our chances.
     
  14. WhiteShoeWillis

    WhiteShoeWillis Well-Known Member

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    We will see. Peyton is a robot and will be tough to defend. My only point is we have the best pass D by far.
     
  15. TurkJetFan

    TurkJetFan Well-Known Member

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    make that in the last 60 games (when entering the 4th quarter)
     
  16. nyscene911

    nyscene911 Active Member

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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size
     
  17. nyscene911

    nyscene911 Active Member

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    Your best running game that, despite winning 14 games, only could muster 80ypg?

    The Colts don't have a very good run attack--its okay.

    As for the QB you "shut down"--Joe Flacco was 4 for 10 for 34 yard and an INT vs the Pats--so your holding him to 189 yards passing isn't all that great. Hell, that was the most yards he had thrown for since week 15.
     
  18. IndyColts1

    IndyColts1 New Member

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    A few things not previously mentioned about the Colts D.

    Written by Deshawn Zombie
    Tuesday, 19 January 2010 06:43
    The New York Jets are in trouble.

    As everyone knows, they try to control what Mark Sanchez does and put him in positions to make big, but safe plays.

    The Jets have scored 38 offensive touchdowns this season (including the playoffs). 11 of them have come from 29 yards out or more. That's nearly 30% of their total touchdowns. In the playoffs, that ratio has sky rocketed. 3 of the Jets 5 playoff touchdowns have come on plays of at least 39 yards. It's clear that though the Jets are a run heavy team, they depend on big plays to take the pressure off Sanchez. When a team has a young quarterback, they know that long 10 or 15 play drives are going to be hard to come by. They seek to exploit mistakes in coverage and set up big plays. They know they can't afford the long brutal drives because they inevitably lead to multiple third downs where the quarter back HAS to make a play. It is a critical factor in Jets wins. On the season they have scored a long touchdown in 6 of their 11 wins. The only teams they've beaten without a big play for a score were Buffalo, Tennessee, Carolina, Indianapolis (though they did have a kick return and a fumble returned for scores), and the Pats early in the season.

    Now here's the bad news for the Jets:

    The Colts don't allow big play touchdowns. Or big plays of any kind, really.

    On the season, the Colts have allowed just 29 touchdowns. Of those, just four were longer than 17 yards, and two of those (21 and 41 yard passes by the Bills) came in the final game with backups playing in a snow storm. Other than that, Indy allowed just two legitimate long scores on the season. One was the 64 yard run by Frank Gore where two players ran into each other, and the other was a 63 yard pass from Brady to Moss. You'll have that every once in a while.

    As for big plays of any type, the Colts allowed the fewest passing plays of 20 yards or more in the league with 27 (four fewer than the Jets). They were 8th in plays of 40+ yards, but if you take out the ball Owens caught in week 17, they jump to 5th. They allowed the 10th fewest runs of 20 yards or more (9), but allowed four of those in the final 2 1/2 quarters against the Bills. 5 runs of that length would have lead the NFL. They allowed only one run of 40+ yards this year, the Gore TD.

    The simple fact is that this matchup is a nightmare for the Jets offense. The Colts are going to take away the big from the Jets, which means that they'll have to score in other ways. One is obviously special teams. Unfortunately for the Jets, they have only one such score on the season. Granted it did come against the Colts, but it was moments after the players had been informed the starters would be sitting in the second half. That return is also the only one the Colts have given up this season. While it could happen again, the odds would certainly seem to be against it.

    So if they can't get big plays and can't count on returns, the Jets will have to lean on their defense to create turnovers and scoring opportunities for the offense.

    Ah, but there's the rub. The Colts defense has been ridiculous at keeping other teams out of the end zone after turnovers. Only twice this season has an opponent converted an Indy turnover into a touchdown. The first was at Jacksonville and the second was the Painter fumble that the Jets scored on. If the plan is to create short fields for the offense, it could work, but is seems unlikely those fields will result in touchdowns.

    So all that's left to the Jets is to hope for long drives that will end with excellent red zone execution. The problem is that the Jets are just 18th in the league in converting red zone chances for touchdowns at 50%. The Colts defense is 9th in the league at 47%. So that means any red zone opportunity for the Jets will be a coin flip proposition at best.

    Let's assume for a moment that the Colts managed to score 17-20 points. That's a safe guess based on the previous matchup. Frankly, I think it's low, but we'll give it to the Jets as their best case scenario. They've allowed 14 points each of their last two games, but both featured multiple missed field goals, and the odds of Indy missing more than one on Sunday are low. My question is how are the Jets going to get the 21 points they'll likely need to win this game? Where are they going to come from?

    Finally I'll leave you all with this stat:

    The 2009 Jets are 1-6 when allowing at least 16 points in a game. They are 0-5 when allowing 18 points or more
     
  19. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    Keep thinking that. We run the ball when we need to and we run the ball successfully when we need to. On more times than not this year we have had a big run when it counted.

    What sense would it make for us to have the best QB in the game and try running the ball more than passing? We can’t lead the league in passing and rushing.
     
  20. freebo

    freebo New Member

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    I read that the other day and it was a great read. All of that points in our favor.

    That being said, I don't think stats tell the whole story. I believe plays are made for situations and the stats don't always reflect the execution.

    For instance, we run the ball on 3rd and 1 a lot. We might only get two yards on that play and it might be 1 of only 17 times we run the ball that day.

    The stat will show below 4.1 average, but the execution was flawless.
     

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