I'll open by saying that it's understandably very early to make a statement like this, but my ideas are very much a projection of what I believe will happen in the coming months, not just the way things are right now. That said, this team does not need a first round pick this year. The Jets unbelievable efforts late in the season to get where they are now has moved them out of position to get many of the players we were all keying on late in the year, and in doing so put them in a bit of a no man's land. The Jets have a lot of decent needs, but I honestly don't feel that any one is so far ahead of the pack that it requires a first rounder. Even the few that are most important, either the Jets are likely picking too late in the first to get a guy that would fill the needs with value, or they could get a player of similar skill later on. Of course, such an opinion is based on my own rankings of players, and for all I know the Jets have some guys ranked in a much different way than I. Also, it doesn't take into account a decision to just go BPA. Still, I have to believe that the value in trading down out of the first round would be a long term better decision. With the value of trading from around #25 to #40 or so at something like a 3rd and a late pick or a 4 and 5, the Jets could pile on picks in a draft they need numbers. Count in potential trades with Kerry Rhodes or even Leon Washington, and the Jets could quickly have a lot of picks available for themselves. As for the needs, I'll go one by one to explain why we can pass in Rd 1: DE- The Jets need to add a young body here, no question, but the value won't be there in the first. Odrick would be there, but that's not really ideal, and the round 2 guys (Jones, Ogho, and Alualu) would be big reaches. I'd love to see this position addressed with one of those guys, but not in round one. Nose- Big Mount Cody and Dan Williams will be off the board most likely, and it's pretty clear there's a dropoff after that. Boo would be a 3rd rounder or so, may be an option of they add picks. OLB- The Jets need a passrusher, but unless Ryan targets a guy that he likes above all others, I'm not sure it's a position that NEEDS to be addressed in the first round. I could say let's get Kindle/Graham here, but I can't confidently say that either of them will be all that better than Willie Young, Eric Norwood, Brandon Lang, or any other of the passrushers muddled in the same area. If the Jets target one of the guys projected to go later it really opens the door. CB- Haden will be gone,and no one else really excites me. I guess I wouldn't be completely pissed if they went corner early, but to me this is a position where they could hopefully find a veteran, with the hopes of still developing Lowery. Then, grab an underrated, project type later in the draft. S- It would really depend on Kerry Rhodes' future. If he goes, then the Jets will have to address it quickly, perhaps with a kid like Chad Jones in the first. I personally don't like drafting safeties in the first unless they're game-changers, and I think Jones might be that. Still, Burnett, Stuckey, or some others a round or two later would be a coup. WR- They need a slot receiver bad, but that's obviously not a position you chase in Rd 1. Can't justify using your 1, 3, and 5 picks in this draft all on receivers. OL- Iupati and Anthony Davis gone, the top four OTs gone too most likely, so where to turn for offensive linemen? Later on in the draft, like Mike Johnson in the 2nd round to play guard, or a Chris Scott much later. Maybe I'm just overthinking the whole deal, but I would love to add picks and players rather than reaching for someone who might have a chance at helping this team next year.
WR is becoming more and more possible as we fall down the board. If a playmaker like Tate or a tlanet like Benn is there at our pick I see no reason not to grab them. If we lose this weekend we should be at 25 or 26. A good option at WR, DE, OLB, and possibly Corner could be there. I would not hate trading out, but we have far too many positions that need quality depth, with quality being key. We would also need a dance partner to trade with. I'm not sure too many people are going to want to jump back into round one this year due to the talent being as deep as it seems into round two. I would hate the thought of traing this year's #1 for future picks. This team is close but needs dpeth at several spots for next year and could be handcuffed by the CBA. Its not that I totally disagree with you, but this draft is goign to be a lot more of a waiting game then we have become used to lately. Thats a fact I could grow to like. :beer:
I don't hate this, but I'm not so sure that both Iupati and Davis are gone by 25. If they are, trading back seems like a good idea unless the demand for a pass rusher skyrockets early. Great post, 'Cane. San Diego delenda est.
I don't believe you're "overthinking"....very insightful post, nice job GH. Doing my most recent mock, I wish I could have traded for more picks, but didn't want to convolute the process. My 1st choice is for the Jets to trade down (unless Iupati falls) or trade Rhodes to accquire more picks. My only concern, Is Tanny willing to trade down? Only traded down once since he was GM...Washington in rd 2 and then traded right back up again with Dallas to pick KC. It was a great trade since we received the following year's Redskin Rd 2 pick...which gave us ammo to trade up for Revis and still draft Harris...2 of the Jet's best defensive players. Sanchez Trade was by far #1...but the Redskin trade was awesome. Tanny and his staff seem to focus on certain players (Shonn Greene, Keller, Harris, Revis) and go after them with vigor. I'm not saying that's going to happen this April, it shouldn't, we need more picks, just something to consider. Your positon by position analysis is spot on.....awesome job. The value at the top of this draft is extremely strong, 1-5 (Suh, Berry, Clausen , McCoy.....) unbelieveable.....6-20 is excellent. After the 20 range the players are very good but are kind of "muddled" together till you get to the 40 range. So your point of trading down is extremely valid. GH, it's amazing how much You and I are on the same wavelenght, most of the time, when it comes to the entire draft process and liking a lot of the same players. Great Post...one of the best here in a long time!!!
One of the things that could influence this process is the CBA situation. In years past you could trade up and have less picks because you'd be able to sign depth guys who were becoming free agents for the first time. Now with players having more restrictions from moving place to place, it'd be harder to fill out a roster through free agency, thus making the draft even more important.
Thats the problem our recent history has showed thas we spot certain players and go after them hard. So as much as probably most of us would like to trade down and feel some more needs up it doesnt seem likely. And even with our lack of picks this it wouldnt surprise me if we trade up agian to make sure we get a certain player.
I only read the title, GH, but I'd imagine you're advocating trading down out of the first. Agree. Big time. I'll read now.
Just based on Mike Tannenbaum's history he usually gets "his guy" (sorry for the cliche) which means he is most likely either going to stay put or trade up. Unless some other offer is just to good to pass. Also I agree with majority of your statements where there is still lots of value in the second round this year so ultimately we could just stock up on second round picks. That being said, I can think of some guys who I would select in the first. That being said, if those players were gone I could completely understand trading back into the second
Completely agreed. If we find a good instant starter in this bunch, it'll be a very pleasant surprise. I'd love to trade down and take more of the many. If we trade Rhodes or don't resign Leonward/Edwards then we'll have starter needs, but I don't think they want to put us in that hole. No need to play catchup unless you know you can. I trust the FO...I'll probably just chill in the offseason and yay or nay the moves. I do have favorite players in the draft...for instance I think we'd be robbing ourselves if we didn't draft Oghobaase. Unless somebody (the Pats, Chargers, Cowboys, Colts etc) beats us to the pick, then touch? assholes.
Just a thought, do you think we could end up with 3 2nd round picks by trading down? That's my dream scenario right now, assuming Cody or someone like that doesn't fall to the end of the 1st round.
Jets are already at #29 in Rd 1. Don't see how we could get 2 more 2nd rd picks, for a total of 3, unless we trade back multiple times and I doubt that will happen. New England has 3 2nd rd picks....we're not dealing with the Pats. Kansas City & Tampa Bay have 2 2nd Round picks.......if they want to move up.....but the value would probably mean the Jets need to give up a later rd pick. Packaging a player, Rhodes (Rhodes for a 2nd round pick and giving up our 5th or 6th round), and some other options could do it. Trading out of very late Rd 1 for 2...rd 2 picks isn't going to happen. Tanny can be aggressive trading down into Rd 2 and pick up a 3rd or 4th Rd picks. It would nice to see Tanny being just as aggressive trading down.
The value of our pick is going to be interesting. If one of the top QBs dont drop to where we are the value of our late round pick is most likely going to be low, especially with the depth of this draft. I think Mr. T and Rex would have to really hate the players that are there and really in love with players in the later rounds. Remember a couple of years ago New England was given a future first round pick for there 29th pick. So its not a guarentee if we trade out of the first we get picks later in this draft. Im not oppose to trading back, I just wonder how realistic it is.
Trading back is an option, but it takes two to tango. Jet's need to see who's on the board when their OTC and have all their ducks in a row and be ready to deal. A real good football player will be available at #29...that's assured.
I agree on the premise, that we dont need a first rounder. But it would be awesome to get more than on pick in round 2 and 3!!! There will be plenty of talent slipping the 1st round, is there no way to get our hands on that? I see a few possible trades - dont know what they would be worth, but I think that the teams recent play adds value to our players. TJ - He has played great for a couple of seasons, and doesnt seem to slow down. Can we get a 3rd or 4th rnd pick for him? I would be happy with LW and Green in the backfield. Bryan Thomas - He has been solid, but adding an outside linebacker in FA or the draft would make him an expendable backup - can we get a 3rd or 4th for him? Maybe the Mangina would bend over again... Rhodes - If recent play continues against the Colts, he could be worth a 2nd or 3rd rnd pick. We could get a playmaking S in the draft. But will anybody pay that price? These trades would give us 3 more high picks, that could prepare this team for the future.
Another two wins and we may as well not have a first round pick anyway. You won't get miuch for it in a trade and if you keep it you will have to pay 1st round money to the 32nd pick. Useless.
I'd love to get our Braylon picks back from Cleveland. Or maybe just their second round pick and fourth round pick.
