Okay, I'll start with two salient facts: 1. The Jets have not allowed more than 15 points on defense since week 11 @ New England. In the last 7 weeks they have allowed 61 points total for an average of 8.7 points a game. If you take the two disputed games, the ones where the opponent supposedly was not trying, out of the equation the Jets have allowed 46 points in 5 games for a 9.2 point a game average. 2. The Jets have not allowed more than 213 yards passing (Peyton in 2/3's of a game) in the last 7 weeks and have allowed a total of 731 yards over that span for an anemic 104.5 yards per game. Again if you take the two disputed games out of the equation the Jets are at 518 yards in 5 games for a 103.6 average. From this we can take two things: 1. Nobody is scoring much on the Jets right now. 2. Only Peyton Manning has been able to deal with their passing D, and even he could not dent it for a passing TD. Okay, on to more salient facts: 1. The Jets have rushed for 630 yards in the last 3 games, including 428 yards against the NFL's #2 ranked rushing defense (well, they were until they ran into the Jets - they're #7 now mainly based on the 257 yards they gave up week 17) They were averaging 155.5 yards a game in the 4 games before that stretch. Right now they can run on anybody. 2. The Chargers, for all their defenders who point to the mid season adjustments after they accounted for Jamal Williams going down, have been allowing anybody who wants to run to do that without much trouble. Despite big leads the Chargers are still giving up 100+ yards a game as teams attack their weakness in an attempt to stay relevant in the game. It is highly unlikely that they are going to be able to shut down the Jets rushing attack. Basically if the Jets want to run all day that's probably going to work for them. 3. The Chargers have been unable to run effectively for most of the season. They haven't wanted to run all that much, because they are a pass first offense, but even with people backed off and defending the pass the Chargers can't run effectively. This means they have no plan B to go to if they find that their passing offense is being shut down by the Jets. I see this game as a potential blowout for the Jets. It's really all going to come down to the Chargers ability to throw the ball effectively, and while a few QB's have managed to do that this season they've had trouble turning that into a lot of points - other than the one game Brady had in the 2nd New England game. The other wildcard, of course, is Mark Sanchez. If the Jets are allowed to keep him under wraps and there are no turnovers from the Jet's offense then the Jets win. If they do something else, which will lead to a few Int's, then they probably lose. My prediction, based on all of the above: Jets 34, Chargers 17.
Wow. This is the most biased analysis I have seen this side of the Chargers forum:beer: (hey, we are all homers in the end). 1. No one is scoring on the Jets because you have played two second string teams and a team fully in the midst of going down the crapper. 2. Again, you can sure run...probably because you can't throw. You guys keep boosting your running and ignoring your anemic passing. The Bolts can and have run when needed, to milk clock at end of games. See Cowboys. See Eagles. See Titans, etc. Having the #20 scoring offense doesn't scare anyone. 3. You may be able to run "all day" on our #12 running defense (in last 3 months), but I dont think so. And, even if you do, your red zone offense for TDs is average. 4. "If" there are no turnovers. Okay. Sanchez has proven to be a sound game manager, with very few turnovers, hasn't he? :breakdance: 5. Since no team has stopped our passing offense, that seems to be another big IF. I think you are just giving us your most optimistic interpretation, and if everything works out as you have detailed, then, yes, you will win by double digits. However, if I gave you the most optimistic interpretation for the Bolts, we would win by 20 as well. Should be a good matchup, and I am very curious to see whether Revis and friends can bottle up Rivers and his Giants. That alone is worth the price of admission.
Seriously I hate to go against the Jets but the reality is we are up against it this week against a very tough and hungry team. This is still a QB dominated league and Rivers is playing at a very high level and SD is a hungry club with a chip on their shoulder. I'm very suspect of our opponents this year with the exception of the NO game we have had guys like Gerrard, and Henne drive their teams right down the field on our D in big spots. We can win but Sanchez is going to have to make big plays in passing situations for that to happen. Edwards can't be dropping TD passes and we are going to have to get a pass rush without blitzing on every down. Rivers has weapons that can beat the blitz and he has two running backs who can take a screen or a pass in the flat and kill us. I can also see Tomlinson running on us a little more than people expect. He's healthy and well rested going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time. I also don't like our coverage teams. We have been allowing field position changes way to much in the punting game.
Jets- 20 Chargers- 14 If the Giants shitty defense can hold them to 21 points we certainly can do better. Skins held them to 23 Cowboys held them to 20 Raiders held them to 24, twice Broncos and Dolphins held them to 23 That's what I'm basing my super simple logic on. The fact that our defense is better then all the other teams they faced.
I agree with absolutely everything you said. However, I think if the Jets don't give up much field position on punts or a special teams TD (both are my biggest concerns with this game), our running game, which is clicking right now, will keep this one close enough that it could come down to the final drive of he game.
SD is clearly going to try and take away our running game. If we man up and push the pile and consistently get first downs out of the running game we probably will be fine if we don't screw up on specials. Our running game while really good does get stacked up for no gains and short gains and doesn't put allot of points on the board. Sanchez is still going to have to make plays to put the points on the board. SD isn't the Bengals, they can come back and they can score in a hurry.
Every team we have played has loaded the box with 8 and we've done okay - getting better each week, in fact. The hot running game has indeed translated into points with sustained drives, a long TD run last week, and effective play action. Like you said originally, I think special teams and field position will be THE factor in this game.
