Two teams came into this game with an identical under-achieving but still somewhat respectable record. One of those teams was facing the 12th ranked rushing defense and the other one was facing the 20th ranked rushing defense. The team facing the 12th ranked rushing defense ran the ball 5 straight times to start the game and established that they could push that 12th ranked defense around. The team facing the 20th ranked rushing defense threw a low percentage bomb on their first play, which was poorly executed and got picked off. Everything else being equal, which of these two philosophies would you expect to win out in a close game between two fairly evenly matched teams? Who had the 31 year old veteran QB and who had the rookie QB? Extra credit: Explain why establishing the run is important to any success that you might achieve through the passing game? Explain obvious exceptions like the presence of a great QB and how that might alter the dynamics above?
No, but I agree with him to a point. Our first play was not only a poor decision, but a poor design. We had the QB roll out to his non throwing arm, which requires him to almost stop to square his shoulders and throw with any accuracy. This made it so he could not get the ball out quickly. Once the fake was done and he took a few steps the DB's if fooled, had plenty of time to recover. All around a shitty way to start the game. Shotty, IMO, is clearly in the Mangini like midset where he is over thinking every thing and not stick with what we are good at and simple football. Need any further proof, look to how much the Phins are protecting Hene and how often we throw out of an empty back feild with out good protection. Its fucking silly that our offense is being run the way it is.
I think your making way too much out of one play. They came out and hoped to catch the Jaguars off guard. The Jaguars also have the 25th ranked pass defense so you can't leave that out when analyzing the play call. It was a poorly executed play but its not the reason we lost.
First of all, any time you're in a nutshell you're screwed anyway-- you're already in a no-win situation. Agree that our O Coord overthinks and gets a little too cute at times. I thought he called a damn good game today, 3 shitty throws, 3 inexcusable drops, an unforgivable fumble and a holding penalty away from being a blowout in our favor.
I can kinda see why they called such an audacious play first up. It was the type of play that a DC would least expect. A huge gamble no doubt but if it comes off we'd be thinking how to insert the word genius into Shottenheimer.
And that to me is exactly the problem. I think he misses all of the "genius" labels he got in 2006, and is desperate to get it back. As a result, he calls too many of these plays that look great on the highlight reel if they work, but rarely do work and have too high a probability of leading to disaster (the pass by Edwards is another example - instead of a 10 yard gain by running, he almost got intercepted). The last thing the Jets needed to do today was start the game with a huge gamble - they're just not good enough to be able to easily recover if it blows up in their faces, and at home they should have thought that they could beat the Jaguars by doing what do best.
Problem w/ the Edwards play was it works if the D is over-committing to that play; they didn't. I think the problem is not with the play-calling per se, but with the quirky plays and the number of "trickery" plays we install/ run per week. The poor execution, mental errors, and penalties lead me to believe we are not practicing a critical # of plays enough to gain collective mastery. Coming off a bye that is unacceptable, though it is understandable since our bye week was really just a week off, followed by a normal practice week.
This just speaks to what statjeff22 was saying though, which is that the Jet offense right now is a high-frills affair designed to look cool when it works, however it also has a fairly high risk factor associated with all the fancy junk and is that really what we want to have a rookie QB running? I don't think Schotty is helping at all in the process of developing Mark Sanchez into an NFL QB and I think there's a pretty good argument that he's hurting him at this point. Running Callahan's plan Sanchez looked completely self-assured and competent at the helm. Running Schotty's he has been up and down and all over the place depending on the opponent, the score and the weather. I just don't think this is the way you develop an NFL QB unless he's truly great, and at this point I think it's clear that Sanchez is not the best thing since sliced bread. He's a great prospect but he's not going to be in the MVP running next year like Peyton was in his second season.
I thought it was because our defense allowed them to march right down the field at the end to win it. We've seen this before.
This is part of the problem. Brian is like the anti-Marty: if it's cool and might go for a lot try it and see what happens. That might be a great attitude to have with a 3 year vet at QB but it just blows chunks with a rookie - who hasn't seen enough NFL football yet to know when he's about to make a huge error. Sanchez damn near threw an interception today when he was trying to throw the ball away on the sidelines, how can you expect him to make the reads and decisions that Schotty's offense demands and not get in trouble a lot?
Obviously I agree with you, and I would only add that when Schottenheimer was the genius in 2006 he had Chad Pennington running the offense. Whatever his shortcomings might have been, Pennington was always one of the smartest QBs out there, especially if he could dictate play. Sanchez is not in any way comparable to that right now (and may never be, but we won't know that for a while). And let's not forget that even in 2006 Pennington had 16 INTs to go with his 17 TDs, and the lowest passer rating he has ever had in a season where he played more than 3 games. Schottenheimer seems okay with that kind of mix of TDs and turnovers, and I don't really understand why Ryan is. It's sure as hell not ground and pound.
What's frustrating to me is that the team with the veteran QB and the commitment to the ground game ran the ball 32 times and passed 26. The team with the rookie QB and the commitment to the ground game passed the ball 30 times and ran it 29. There's just no way that having Mark Sanchez heave the ball up 30 times is going to help this team win games right now. What would help this team win games is if they could get the sequence offense going and start to dictate to teams on the ground and shorten the overall game. Even if that means they wind up in a one score game in the 4th quarter most of the time with a fresher defense we'd be up on where we are right now.
David Garrard is a horrible QB, that's the biggest reason why the jags run so much. Jones-Drew is good, but Garrard is garbage and the jags blew it giving him a $60 million contract with $21 million guaranteed.
