LAAAAAAA @ Red Sox, 9/14-9/17

6.5 back from the Yankees and only 5 in the loss column. If we can get that to a tie we win based on the season series. I'm daring to dream that the division race isn't quite over.

 

Boston scores 5 in the 6th to go up 5-3.

Top of 7th:

Angels 7th
Takashi Saito pitching:
Bobby Abreu: Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Foul, Foul, Foul, Brian N. Anderson in right, Abreu grounded out to pitcher.
Vladimir Guerrero: Foul, Ball, Guerrero hit by pitch.
Ramon Ramirez relieved Takashi Saito.
Torii Hunter: Ball, Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Hunter popped out to second.
Kendry Morales: Strike looking, Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Morales struck out, reached on passed ball, Guerrero to third.
Howie Kendrick: Ball, Strike looking, Kendrick singled to left, Guerrero scored, Morales to second.
Juan L. Rivera: Rivera doubled to center, Morales and Kendrick scored.
Mike Napoli: Strike swinging, Strike looking, Napoli doubled to left, Rivera scored

 

Okajima came in and struck out Figgins to send it to the stretch.

Three pitchers in that inning.

And the inning should've been over with the K earlier, still at 5-3.

 

Something tells me that even a healthy and effective Matsuzaka isn't worth an eleven game swing.

But can we talk about how great Bard is instead?

 

Who paid-off that fuckin' home plate ump? That was a strike!

 

Not even close. Wow.

 

Fuentes is such a gas can.

Walks home the tying run.

 

Red Sox win on a walkoff single by Gonzalez.

Both the Yankees and Red Sox get walkoff singles from light-hitting players tonight.

 

What are you basing that on? I'm showing Matsuzaka's WAR in 2008 as 3.3. Link

Never mind that last year was a complete fluke. 2007 is more what you should expect from a healthy/effective Matsuzaka.

Sorry, dude. A pitcher of Matsuzaka's ability is not worth even a 9.5 game swing.

Besides, the Sox have amazing pitching depth. They could sustain six or seven injuries and replace them with All Star candidates.

 

That's nice. Maybe you should just put me back on ignore. Sheesh.

That's a large spread between WAR and WARP.

But yeah, not a 9.5 game swing.

 

So an average pitcher is worth -2.5 WARP? There's something I'm missing here.

 

Yeah, you should just put me back on ignore, then.

I mean, really... if you're going to call other people cunts because of "poorly executed attempts at snarky humor" you need to ignore them. Or perhaps even better, take a deep breath and back away from the computer for a little while.

Actually, that would be 5.5, if I were to follow your operations. I think you meant to say (+7) - (-2.5) = (+9.5)

Whatever. I got your point, despite your poor executed attempt at snarky humor. And math. *gasp* Oh, the cunty-ness!

As for the issue, two points:

1. WARP is saying that he's worth 133% more wins than WAR. I find that highly unlikely, or at the very least, introducing enough variability to the point of standing by either metric rather meaningless. I imagine it has to do with WAR using fielding-independent pitching. Not sure if WARP does or not. I'm guessing it doesn't, or at least, doesn't weight it similarly. And this points back to Matsuzaka's fluky 2008. He might have been "worth" seven wins because of his results, according to WARP. But a "healthy and effective" Matsuzaka who pitched the way he did in 2008 cannot expect to reproduce those results, and his FIP would agree with this. So to say that they'd be up five (or three) games right now if they had him healthy and effective all year is kind of silly.

2. Smoltz and Tazawa pitched too few games to really have an accurate gauge on it. Neither WAR and WARP have much meaning over a fifth of a season. You can (conceivably) pitch poorly enough in one game to lower your WAR/WARP by more than one win.

 

I know they're playing the Royals now, but it should be noted how great Bard was again.

 

It should be noted that Buchholz sucks and is vastly overrated; he is strikingly similar to Ian Kennedy.