Pats Passing O vs Jets pass D Pats have an edge Based on what I saw in the Pats vs Bills game last night, the Bills were giving a good 10-15 yds cushion to Randy Moss alone in the last quarter. It's not hard to complete quick passes with that much cushion and even Ryan Leaf could have done that. That was something the Jets were used to under Mangini, but Rex wants to change that. He loves the Jets and will do anything to beat Belicheat. He will bring the heat on Brady, play man to man, tighten up the coverage, whatever that shuts down Moss n Welker. That will force Brady to go with his TE help and I doubt if Watson has another game like that. I'm not saying Brady was terrible. He wasn't. He was excellent, but most of his throws were dink and dunk Pennington kind of throws with high completion rate. The interception wasn't his fault either. Just a couple of long passes that resulted in two Watson TDs. I am pretty sure that's how it will be going forward. A bunch of screens, quick passes, slants etc. with the occasional shot down the field. I doubt if Brady throws a pick but if their ground game goes nowhere (which it wont), they'll obviously attack the air and that gives Revis, Sheppard, Kerry and Leonhard plenty of chances to make a few good plays. We will blitz them and blitz often. Harris will be in Brady's face all day long. I saw Leonhard making plays near the line of scrimmage a lot on Sunday so Im assuming Kerry will stay deep. He's a great coverage safety with ballhawk skills and should keep Moss in check while Revis plays the inside. Pats Rushing O vs Jets Rush D Jets have an edge Jets had one of the best Run Defense in the NFL in the first half of the season last year and they proved it again against Slaton on Sunday, AFCs number 2 running back last yr. Jets held Texans to a total of 38 yards rushing on 13 attempts. Maroney is overrated and can not stay on the field. Fred Taylor is 33 yrs old. Their running game was terrible and make no mistake, Buffalo's DL isn't the best in the NFL. Jets probably have a superior group of DL and LBs than Bills. 73 yards on 23 attempts is not what the Pats expected. If they take an early lead, they'll try to open up the running game. In any case, I see the Pats gaining nowhere near 100 rushing yards. Jets Passing O vs Pats pass D Jets have an edge The Patriots defense wasn't great either last night. I know they had 4 sacks and a lot of QB pressures, but that was against without a doubt, the worst OL in the AFC East, and quite possibly the entire AFC. The Jets probably have a top 5 OL in the NFL and should give Sanchez enough time to scan the field and throw a few deep balls. He can buy an extra second or two with his mobility and is very aware of the collapsing pocket and has excellent accuracy. Stuckey and Clowney will be the deep threats while Cotchery and Keller will primarily be used for relatively shorter passes. The Pats secondary is susceptible to the pass. Keller should again have a big game as Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury last game. The extent of the injury is not known but it could slow him down. Edwards had a good game against the Pats throwing for 212 yards, 2 TDs, and no picks and all that while TO was literally a non factor. The Jets rookie threw for 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 int, and zero sacks. See him put up somewhat similar numbers. Jets Rushing O vs. Pats Rush D Jets have an edge No surprises here. The Pats gave up 90 yards to the Bills terrible OL without Marshawn Lynch. Thomas Jones was slow to start against the texans but got into his grove late in the game when Texans D got tired. Leon was solid through out the game, also helping keep TJ fresh for the second half of the game. Wilfork should be handled by Mangold alone and if Faneca steps in, he should become a nonfactor. Shonn Greene should play his first game and that further helps Leon and TJ remain fresh through out the game. Look for the Jets to put up another strong rushing performance. Special Teams Jets have an edge Gostkowski missed a FG last night, not the end of the world though. However, Feely has been solid of late and the Jets return game is superior to the Pats. Wes Welker is a good return man, but the Jets coverage unit does a good overall job of covering punts/kickoffs. Intangible: Pats have an edge Belicheat and Brady. Even though we have an edge in most areas, this is gonna be a tough game cause Brady is still Brady. We contained him last yr and there is no reason to believe we wont do that again this years. However, he will feel more comfortable in his second game back from the injury. Belicheat is considered to put a master plan together against his opponents. Even though that wasn't the case last night (Bills lost it, rather than the Pats winning it), he will come back strong. He hates the Jets and will do absolutely everything in his power to degrade his rival. The Jets crowd will also factor in when Brady tries to call an audible on 3rd and long or 3rd and inches situations. "It's going to be blazing electric" and "Edge Jets once again, because the place is going to be freaking rocking!" On the other hand, Rex isn't exactly a big fan of Belicheat either. His complex defense hasn't leashed yet and probably won't for another few games. It is still learning, but so is Rex, a rookie headcoach. Projection: This will be tight contest and will go down to the wire. It can go anywhere. If the Pats are trailing by a score late in the game, they will come back. However, if the Jets trail late in the game, it might be a tough game for the young QB Sanchez to lead the Jets, with relatively little experience playing from behind. Jets need to take a two possession lead in to the final quarter if they plan on securing this game. A late FG or TD might be a hearbreaker. Jets 30 Pats 31
Pats D is nothing spectacular so the Jets should put up points. Pats offense is good, and even though the Jets D is good, Brady will find ways to score. The score could very well end up being 30-24 Jets.
All I will say is, Rex was beaten by the Pats in December 2007 as D coordinator and Scott had some major blunders with 2 personals late in the game. Pats won 27-24. Rex and the team will be totally amped up for this game. Make no mistake.
thanks for the preview. brady's throws simply cannot be called dink and dunk, no matter how short they are. they are practically handoffs they get there so fast. we have to get some stops early like buffalo last night, because at some point TB's going to find a rhythm, and it's very hard to stop him once that happens. I hope and expect to see revis taking away welker quite a bit, as opposed to lining up with moss. Let revis shut down welker and squeeze moss with a double. otherwise, welker will eviscerate us. Fucking welker is so tough and elusive. it seems like we should be able to knock him silly, but he's masterful at avoiding big hits. it would be huge if we could get TJ going early. sancho's scrambling often got our sub-par receivers some desperately needed separation, but BB will do a MUCH better job than Houston in containing the scramble -- especially since he can watch it on film -- which means sancho will be making difficult throws through clogged passing lanes from the pocket. we simply must move the chains early on, and getting 5 or 6 a carry from TJ would really take the pressure off sancho. it would also build TJ's confidence, and wear down the NE D at the second level. I think it's weird that your "intangibles" section says nothing about what our stadium is going to be like. it's going to be blazing electric. That's clearly a major intangible. Unless you're suggesting that the energy will be tangible? ;-) I think we lose, but I hope we don't get embarrassed/exposed. A respectable effort that earns respect wouldn't crush me too bad.
I was loving this analysis right up until I read the last line. If the Jets have the edge in 4 out of 6 categories, how come the prediction is a loss? I think you've nailed excellent reasons why the Jets can win this one. And you forgot the home field advantage... Edge Jets once again, because the place is going to be freaking rocking!
if Mayo's knee is a problem for him, that LB core will be total shit and the Jets have to take advantage by running the ball all game. On defense it comes down to brady and nothing else. The run D will take care of Maroney and crew, but beating up on brady is the only way to win this game. Kevin Faulk cannot touch the ball on 3rd down. He's their go to guy every time.
24-10 Jets. This isn't the same Pats team from '07. Not even the Offense. And Brady looks like he's lost something. He was over and under throwing passes that a high school QB should make. He's still Tom Brady, but I don't think you let his play intimidate you.
Weasely Welker has to be knocked into Wally World, but you're right, he's a master at avoiding punishing hits. He's got an uncanny ability to sense when the hit is arriving and he immediately dives for his weasel hole. I want Eric Smith to watch this guy like a hawk, anticipate his catches, and drill him a new one like he delivered on Boldin. This weasel needs to be taken out, period. He kills us every game.
Something else I noticed when watching the Jets/Texans game. Sanchez needs to do a better job protecting the football in the pocket. He has the tendency to hold the ball out in the open with one hand. The Patriots DL is a good one. They don't need to send blitzes to help the DL's collapse the pocket or get to the QB. I hope Schotty is telling Sanchez this as I post it.
i think we have a great chance to win for all the things you said but i am really worried about lito/lowery covering welker. i have no doubt we will shut down their rushing attack and moss, but welker is a quick reciever who may give the secondary some trouble. that is going to be key because the pats are going to be in alot of 3 and 6 type situations and if welker is able to dominate the short passing gm like he did last night it could cause huge problems. 13-10 jets- a feely fg with 41 secs left wins the gm for the jets. The d controls the gm and is able to contain welker. Sanchez struggles early but recovers late and leads them on a scoring drive to win the game.
Well I thought about putting that in there too, but as u can see, the preview got a bit too long than expected. Sure enough, the home field advantage has a big affect. Also, I agree that we may let this one slip away, but will put up a big effort. It will be a close one and the key to the game will be if Sanchez can come up big late in the game if needed. If Sanchez plays like a rookie, we'll lose. If he plays like a pro, we'll have a good chance to overpowering the Patriots.
Yeah, I should have put that in there. But read my last post above as for the reasoning why we may come up short. It can go either way depending on Sanchez's play.
21 - 17 Jets Jets score earily and taper off. 2nd half they come out and put it down !!! Brady throws two picks!
