Last year in Baltimore Rice's "3rd" string toucher were a lot mopre then Leon saw as our #2 guy. I expect him to get the ball. I just don't see him surpassing TJ at all or Greene by all that much. RBBC is the way of the future for us.
Ryan has gone on record and said he wants Greene to be the dozzer on short yardage and fresh legs in the 4th qtr. Leon will be Mr 3rd down and hopefully also in 2 HB sets.
His agent is meeting with Tannenbaum today http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/07/29/news-leons-agent-to-meeting-front-office-today/
You and Gustoon make good points. I just feel he is the most valuable playmaker on the roster. Really, who else scares anyone? That being said, I would expect him to get a healthy contract if he was a free agent. Better to lock him up now.
The problem is, with TJ on the way out, we're unlikely to have that Baltimore three-headed attack. That was a fairly even split between McClain, McGahee, and Rice. We're not trying to resign him because of this season, we're doing it for next season when TJ's contract is simply untenable. I'd expect Leon to grab at least 40-50% of the carries after this season, with another 40-50% going to Greene, and a 3rd back coming in to snag a few carries per game. Let's say we average about 30 carries per game (barely cracking the top 10 in rushing attempts), and Leon gets 12 - 15 of those, a couple of catches, and returns kicks. Would those suggesting he's not worth the contract we're offering have a problem with $4.5 million per if we start to see that kind of production out of him?
He doesn't run back kicks. He's the best or second best KR in the game and has been for several years. Low rookies may run back kicks but they don't do what Leon does. If he gives the Jets an extra 5 yards on the average KR, and scores 2 or 3 TD's a year that nobody else they'd put back there would then he's probably worth the 4.5 million as a 3rd string back. The facts are that the only reason he's a third strong back is because the Jets have chosen not to wear him out early on the field. There's just no question he could be a 12 carry a game back if they chose to use him that way, they just haven't done it. He's going to get more than 4.5 million a year from somebody. The question is whether or not that somebody is the Jets.
I'll bet you TJs YPC is the same or better than last seasons. I really don't understand this theory that because of years, a players stats will go into free fall. The guy has obviously looked after himself and continues to do so. I do think that TJ will be gone next season though IF Greene proves himself. I'm not basing this on anything factual, gut feeling, but my feeling is that Greene is going to be a perennial sick note.
?50-50′ Shot at Actual New Contract for Leon http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/07/29/breaking-50-50-shot-at-actual-new-contract-for-leon/
No offense, but you just read a whole lot into my argument that I didn't say. I said TJ was on his way out. I didn't say it was because of his stats or some anticipated and guaranteed drop off. He's on his way out because he's due a base contract value of 5.8 million next season, which doesn't take into account the 1.5 million dollar bonus. Even without a cap, I seriously don't see the team paying him that much. Everyone has that gut feeling about Greene. That's why we were all so excited about the pick.
Even with out a long term deal, he's our for at least 3 to 4 years. If the 2010 season remains uncapped, he is a restriced free agent, only due a tender for that. Then we have the option of a franchise tag. Leon will be 27 before the start of this year. If we want we can keep him into his 30's with out signing a long term deal. Unless he comes down in price that is the way to go.
The "best or Second best" Return man in the game finished 10th in average last year. Leon is good, not great. People need to wake up to that.
Ok , I assumed you meant player decline. When I said a perennial sick note , I meant that he will always be injured .
You need to lay off the pipe. Leon is Great, not good. From the running back position, he had 3 plays of 40+ yards last year. Tied for fourth in the league. Slaton had 5, as did DeAngelo Williams.They did that on 268, and 273 carries respectively. Leon did it in 76. The only comparable player in that category was Jerious Norwood who had 4 in 95. (He did have slightly less APY than Leon...) Adrian Peterson had 4 big plays but it took him 363 carries to get them. And of all the guys that are comparable as kick returners most are DB's. and Sproles does not have Leons ability on Offense.
Leon is a good return man. Not great. He did not lead the league in average for KR's, not even close. I lkie him as a player, but see no reason to offer him the type of money he's asking for. Adrian Peterson HAs proven that he can carry a workload. So has Slaton and DeAngleo Williams. Leon has proven he is effective in spot duty. Thats it. To list him with those guys is silly. Sproles Averaged Similar YPC numbers and Greater yards per Catch numbers. Saying that he does not have Leon's skills on offense is the green Kool-Aid talking. We have Leon by the Short hairs contract wise. He is simply a guy who's not worth the 6 mill he is asking for.
Obviously, the 2010 argument is why he doesn't have a contract already, and I'm not going to argue with anyone who suggests we should wait until after this season to deal with him. It's a valid position. As far as the franchise tag, however, that's been discussed about for months now, and it's still a horrible idea to let it get that far. Financially, the tag escalates every season. Sproles netted $6.6 million this season, barring a long term deal. Are you going to feel any better about handing Leon $7 - 8 million in 2 years than you are about rewarding him now with a smaller number? We have the cap room this season, next year is uncapped, and he'll have a smaller number after that. Aside from the financial impact, you have to consider that this is a front office that has been called into question recently for how it treats its veterans. Leon has clearly outplayed his contract, is entering the final year, and everyone on that roster knows that he stands a good chance of getting screwed this offseason. Why not lock him up and boost veteran morale? If the number is really $4.5 million per, it seems more than reasonable.
Leon's camp needs to take into account that he will be getting an extra 4-5 million this year that he is not currently contracted for. Over the course of a 5 year contract, that is already an extra 1 million per year, so 6 should automatically become 5 just on principal and the fact that he will receive all of that extra money as part of his signing bonus, making it potentially more than 5 million if he invests the early money correctly.
If its 4.5 I have no problem with it. A long term deal at that level is worth it to both sides. I'm not about to give him 6. As for the franchise tag thing, well we Save a ton this year if his contract stays the same, Next year it would be an RFA tender, so much less then 6 mill still. Then he would ballon to 7ish from there, as long as the top 5 running back numbers continue to rise quickly. Overall the money is not far apart over 3 to 4 years either way if you cave to 6 Million.
Agreed. Sorry, I thought you were objecting to the lower number. There's no way he's worth everydown back value. I was setting his value at Derrick Ward to Tampa levels.
