Publisher's Pen : Future of NFL draft is in jeopardy By Hub Arkush (hub@pfwmedia.com) - May 11, 2009 > http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2009/harkush2403.htm
The NFLPA would never permit the draft to go away. In fact, I think one of the cornerstones of a new CBA will be a salary scale for rookies similar to the NBA. Why would NFL veterans want limited resources going to unproven rookies? Why should rookies get record contracts over proven vets? That will change with a new CBA. With more of the pie going to veterans, I can see the basis for a new contract. In this economy, the public is not going to have the patience for a fight between billionaires and millionaires. A strike or lock out would be ridiculous for the NFL.
I think that's about right, there is too much money to be made for a work stoppage in the football business, it's a billion dollar industry. The interesting part will be how a rookie salary cap affects players' decision to leave school early.
why would that have any effect? they will still get paid nothing to stay in college, and, salary cap or not, their rookie contracts will make them relatively rich. i would think most people leave college early because they think their draft stock is acceptably high, they wanna get paid for what they do, and they dont want to risk injury by staying in college one more year and then lose out on any chance at money. i dont see how a rookie salary cap will change any of that...
You use the term 'relatively' pretty loosely, I don't think it's as easy as you are trying to portray it. Plenty of players forgo their senior seasons and a chance for an NCAA championship for the huge amounts of money they are being wooed with in the first round of the draft. Yes, some players risk injury by going back for their senior year, but if they sign some 2nd round base rookie contract coming out in their junior year and get injured, isn't that just as dangerous to their future? I don't believe you're thinking this through very well.
i didnt mean to make it black or white. nor did i mean to imply i had a definite opinion on the issue, i was honestly curious why you thought a rookie salary cap would affect people coming out early. while i understand your point, i still feel (based on no facts though so im happy to be proven wrong) that most players who come out a year early do so at least partly with the belief that their draft stock is as high as it will get. therefore, salary cap or not, they come out when they do partially because that is the largest payday they expect to get. am i missing something on this? i dont care what the minimum salary is going to be for an NFL player, itll still be higher than most college grads can expect once they graduate, and that was how i meant "relatively rich". and the point still holds that they will get paid nothing to stay in school that extra year. so, what i am curious to understand is what aspect of a junior's decision to enter the draft you expect to be affected by a rookie salary cap...
The draft will never go away. It would be insane and NFL will do anything in its power. Salary cap era may end, but draft is the building stone of the NFL IMO.
I'm not saying there's going to be a mass decision by all eligible juniors not to declare, but it's probably going to make those late 1sts, 2nds and 3rds all consider their position a little more. The money won't be nearly as much of a temptation for the fringe players who may be able to sneak into the 1st. You have to take into account that most of these player really WANT to stay for another year but are making a business decision not to. It's not just about not getting paid in college. That business decision won't be nearly as easy to make in favor of declaring with a rookie cap, because agents won't be able to finagle a few more million, their negotiating abilities will be taken essentially out of the equation until the second contract. It think it can also alter the team's decision to go with a player like QB or OL over positions like safety or corner in the 1st, because they aren't under as much pressure to go after a franchise-changing player early on. And again, if you'll look at my original post, I am interested in seeing how this will play out, not so much making predictions.
roger goodell is the worst thing that has ever happened to the nfl. i am very confident the next 2 years will prove that. i dont know what will happen, i truly hope the players association gets itself a backbone and stops letting itself get pushed around.
i disagree there. players dont want to stay another year or 2 but in the NFL they have to. Now if the NFL does like the NBA and only make them go to collage for 1 year a lot more people will come out early. I would say 90% of people playing collage football or any NCAA sports that have pro sports. There goal is to make it the pros. They could careless about getting a degree. All they care about is taking care of there family and thereselfs.
^ Ah, Badger. Going where athletes don't want to. I like that the guy who made that collage put his Grams in the center. That's a special place for a special lady.
There is a vast difference between the required readiness for the NFL and for the NBA. With the exception of Okoye, 18 and 19 year olds simply aren't physically ready for the NFL, and it's not a league in which you can spend significant time developing players on the bench. The vast majority of draft picks need to be able to come in and contribute as starters almost immediately. That's not always the case in the NBA, a league in which teams for a number of years there were content to take players straight out of high school for 3 years of development.
fair enough. thanks for the explanation. didnt mean to imply that you were taking a side, i was just curious what led you to think it would potentially have an impact. as for teams changing their drafting priorities due to the cap, thats a very interesting point. i hadnt thought of that. i guess this will all depend on how a rookie cap is structured, if/when it happens...
