I'm thinking San Francisco has cooled off Matsui. Sabean was on the radio this past week saying they fully intend to go into the 2009 season with Matt Cain in tow. They'll listen of course, but they'd need to be blown away. When asked if Matsui was on his radar, he laughed and said he is always on the lookout for good young talent to make this Giants team competitive now, and for the future. Key word, young.
Of course Sabean's going to say that. What do you expect him to say? "OMG! WE TOTALLY WANT MATSUI!!! CAN WE GIVE YOU CAIN FOR HIM?! NO? HOW ABOUT LINCECUM?!?" No matter how bad he might be (and he's pretty bad), he's not going to say that. At the same time, the Giants are seriously lacking an impact bat and a player who can put butts in the seats since Bonds left. Matsui's no Bonds, but he'd be the best hitter on that team, and his international appeal (especially in SF) is a huge attraction. So if you include Kennedy and maybe someone like Coke in addition to Matsui, it is not an unreasonable offer.
SF would have no interest in that deal at all, it's a horrendous offer for them. Matsui is not worth all that much as an aging player in his declining years, and kennedy is not a premier pitching prospect, sabean has said Cain is untouchable, but even if he were to trade him, rumors are he is the backup option for the braves if they miss out on Peavy, and they are offerring some of the same prospects, any 2 of those 4 would be a significantly better deal. or a deal from the red sox of any of their top 4 pitching prospects and coco crisp is better as well. The twins supposedly offered Delmon Young and were turned down flat out. Even if the yankees ate almost every cent of Matsui's contract he still isn't anywhere near being a centerpiece of a deal for Cain. Matsui is for sake of comparison less valuable than the preiously discussed Mike Lowell, significantly so if Lowell proves himself healthy. The brewers seem the best matchup for a Cain trade, based around hart or hardy, perhaps fielder depending on the other players switching sides. Honestly the yankees have almost no juice at all for a trade, no highly thought of prospects who are close to MLB ready, and no low cost young major leaguers. EDIT- just to clarify about where Cain's value is one of the more recent rumors was posted by Gammons, and it was Cain for Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy and a third player. And Joe Sheehan from BP said he thought cain was worth considerably more than prince fielder. He suggested that the centerpiece of a deal for Cain would have to be a young Position player who has very high upside, he listed Jones Kemp and milledge as the types he meant.
Exactly. The Giants are building for the future, and giving away a stud for grandpa Matsui, is retarded. If Cain is dealt, and thats a big if, Millwaukee is the likely landing spot. I hadn't heard that deal, but depending who the 3rd player is, hopefully a nice pitching prospect who could eat innings in the pen, I'd pull the trigger. I'd also make it contingent on Fielder extending.
First of all, where are you hearing that Cain is "a stud"? My understanding is that he is undervalued. Secondly, Matsui is definitely older, but hardly a "grandpa"... certainly not if you're trying to convince other people that Lowell isn't a grandpa, as well. If the Twins offered Delmon Young, and were turned down, maybe that's because they don't see Young developing into a very good player. Cain for Fielder, Hardy and a prospect? If that offer was really made, the Giants would be morons not to make it. I can't see that being the case, though. Lastly, there's a reason I included a third prospect in my hypothetical offer. If you have to add Coke or Melancon or Miranda to make the deal happen, you do it. But- as I mentioned - it's not just an effort to improve the team on the part of the Giants. They need to make a smart business move. But whatever, if it needs to be a young positional player, give them Cano.
Cain is a stud, he's only 2 months older than Ian Kennedy, has 3 full seasons under his belt with ERA+ of 108, 122, 116 his career era + is 118 only 3 points behind Jake Peavy who is at 121, and better than john lackey and josh beckett. He has amazing stuff, racking up tons of strikeouts, and good mechanics, never missed time with injury IP have been 190, 200, 217. As for Matsui, his only draw is the possibility of a Japanese TV contract, but he isn't going to drie up attendance much, and as a player he is a slightly better than league average hitter, a poor defender, and has missed significant amounts of time with injury in 2 of the last 3 years. With regards to comparing him to Lowell, I doubt Lowell is anything the Giants are interested in either, but he is a very similar hitter, who has the advantage of playing probably the thinnest position in baseball and being one of the best defenders there, As to Cano, he's a decent hitter at 2b, but a butcher in the field, and his potential is certainly not in the league of any of the players mentioned before such as fielder or kemp. Also the Giants have velez, so 2b is one of the few positions they probably feel comfortable with their starter at.
You misunderstand me. I get that he's a stud. But I was under the impression that he was not being valued as such, since many people (including, frighteningly, those in the game) point to things like W/L record as indicators of worth. I think you might be ignorant about the number of Japanese transplants in San Fran. As for the Lowell comparisons... similar hitters? Please, dude. Matsui's career OPS+: 123 Lowell's OPS+: 110 Name a random (non-cumulative) offensive metric. I'll lay you 3-to-1 odds that Matsui tops Lowell. Wow. That seals it for me regarding your analytical skills.
for point one, I think fielding a good team will draw more people than a washed up Japanese star. For point 2, Lowell is a 3rd baseman, and has trended up while matsui has trended down, their OPS+ the last 2 years is almost the same, 108-104 for matsui this year and 124-123 for lowell the year before, and Lowell has had significantly more plate appearances. As to point 3 really, my being down on Cano proves me wrong how? He's not an elite player, his upside is fairly limited, his career OPS+ is 108, and last year was 82. His avg, and obp hae dropped each of the last 3 years,and he never did take many walks, he has 15 HR power which is nice, with not much in the way of steals. he also is not a good defender. you are drastically overvaluing yankees players just because they play for the yankees, If the yankees want cain by giving up either cano or matsui they'd have to ad at the least hughes and another top 10 prospect. The Giants have been very open about the fact that they won't trade him unless they get full value, and your offers are barely a quarter on the dollar, and have them taking on a bunch of payroll. side note, the giants are in the top half of the NL in attendance, so they aren'texactly going to mortgage the future for whatever minimal bump in attendance Matsui gives them, honestly I doubt he would have that much of an impact.
This. He wasn't a consistently good defender last year, but he was near the top of the league in the first half of the year, and tanked in the second, playing atrociously. However, he can be and has been a good defender, minus three months at the end of last season. Holy shit, you're being ridiculous. I'm about as objective of a Yankee fan as you'll find. In terms of what the Yanks would be giving up, you're talking about a veteran all-star, a very good prospect pitcher, and another very good prospect. All for one second-level young pitcher. Now if the Brewers want to trade Fielder, Hardy, and someone else for Cain, they're welcome to do so. But accurate valuation based on talent changing hands, and valuation based on what the market will bear are two separate approaches. But let me guess... Lowell and Masterson would get the Sox Lincecum AND Cain, right? Have they now? I haven't seen any of this. I tend not to drink the Gammons-flavored Kool-Aid, though. Perhaps that is why. I disagree with your assessment.
How is your reading comprehension doing? I said, I get that he is a stud. I'm sure others (including some on here, apparently) think the same. My understanding was that he wasn't valued as such by others, including those in the game.
Cano had one down year and he still hit 14 hrs and drove in 70. He had a terrible April, but after think I think he hit .290. He's got the potential to hit.300 + every year and hit 20-25 hrs and drive in 90-100. He's still young, its ridiculous to give up on this guy because of one bad year
The quote from sabean was from the san francisco chronicle, I read it in the LA times, as for gamons I was just pointing that out as an example of a trade that was rumored, as to the red sox, if they wanted to get cain I assume it would cost them at the very least coco crisp, bucholtz or bowden and another prospect or 2, perhaps bard or lowrie. you keep calling cain a second level pitcher, or saying teams don't value him as a stud, but there is no evidence for this assertion, any trade rumors I see are always predicated on him as a stud. He's as valuable as peavy, more so in some ways because he's locked up long term for ridiculously cheap, under 3 next year and never over 7in the next 3. Every time I see a reporter talking about scout and gm opinions they say he's going to cost a ton, everyone seems to think fielder isn't nearly enough, that it'll take a top tier young hitter, a top pitching prospect and another prospect at the very least. your offer isn't there, kennedy isn't considered a top prospect. and matsui is about league average. mostly the yankees don't have the kind of young hitter in the outfield or at CI that the giants want, and the subpar options they have are all very expensive. i guess if they could sell the giants on cano they might be able to get in the bidding with Cano, hughes, jackson and a prospect in the 5-12 range, but even that isn't as attractive as the braves offer for Peavy, and Bill shanks, probably the best guy covering the braves wrote that the braves probably won't go after cain because they think any deal for him would have to be "much better than what was even offered for Peavy" so no it doesn't appear that Cain is undervalued at all by people in baseball, he seems to be one of the least attainable guys out there.
As in, not Johan Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, Lincecum, etc. Cain isn't in that group. Few are. And the packages you are talking about teams putting together are packages needed to get top-level pitchers. I think the evidence has been the perception of Matt Cain's ability (up until this offseason, apparently). Tell me that you hear Matt Cain and think of guys like the pitchers I mentioned above. He's not grouped with the elite. His value comes in areas that most people (including a lot GMs) don't focus on. Because of this, I thought perhaps he could be had for what it would've taken to get a pitcher more like Pettitte (in his prime) or maybe a Jack Morris type pitcher. Please pass along any rumors you see. I'm curious. And you realize that that is more than it took to get Johan Santana from the Mets, right? By, like, a lot. That is ridiculous. Cain isn't worth that. And if that is the kind of deal Sabean is holding out for, he's a moron. That's the first I've seen of it.
here is tyhe article by shanks where he says cain would cost muchmore than peavy http://braves.scout.com/2/811627.html here'sa chat with jim callis where he talks about cain a few times in regards to his very high value:http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=2 in this one Callis says difinitively that Cain has more value than Peavy, and shoots down a cain for cano, kennedy and miranda deal: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=23152 he had this to say about cano and kennedy: I'm not sold on Cano being a 2B long term. The Giants aren't going to contend soon, so I'd rather have a package of young talent instead of a big leaguer coming off his worst season and creating questions about his work ethic. Kennedy's stock isn't high either and Miranda doesn't do much for me. here's one from chris haft at mlb.com about how scouts think it's only worth moving cain for a haren like return: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081030&content_id=3655628&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Awesome post Cellar. Cappy, I misunderstood your post, I apologize. But just because you don't agree with the assesment of some players or their tier, or that you've never heard a rumor, dosen't make it instantly a flat out lie. Get your head out of your ass, get off the high horse and stop being a dick.
