zero foresight

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Longsuffering88, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. ukjetsfan

    ukjetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to try and find the passage from the book I read this in - they may do a better job of explaining than I am!
     
  2. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, it's been a horrible week, and I took it out on you. I shouldn't have and I apologize. That's why I didn't want to discuss the point. I think the author you quoted is nuts. I could feel the anger and venom rising in me and wasn't going to respond, but when you kept posting and insisting that you were right, I lost it, and couldn't stop myself from posting. It was when you said the author's and your opinion was mathematically irrefutable that put me over the edge. It's hilarious, because it doesn't even begin to be true or accurate.

    I'm gonna try one more time using math to show you how wrong that author is.

    Let's assign dollar values to draft picks. For argument's sake, let's say the top pick in the draft is worth $1,000,000. The second pick is worth $990,000 and every pick after that in the first round goes down by $10,000. The top pick in the 2nd round is $720,000, and every pick thereafter is worth $5,000 less. So the 2nd pick in the 1st round would be worth $990,000 and the first pick of the 2nd round would be $720,000, so it appears as if the team drafting 2nd might have an edge, but that team's 2nd round pick would be worth only $715,000. So either individually on a round-by round basis, or collectively adding together the entire draft assuming every team has 7 picks, the team drafting first wins. Assuming they pick wisely, their players are worth more than the team that drafts second, and the players drafted by the team that drafts second are worth more than the team that drafts 3rd and so on.

    Now put it in terms of you're gonna get paid those amounts. Just looking at the first two rounds, would you rather have $1,720,000 or $1,705,000?

    I addition, the teams drafting higher have more options, not only in terms of players that they can choose from, but also in terms of maneuverability. Teams fall in love with prospects and seek to trade up to get them. The team having the first pick could trade down for multiple picks, and wind up with over $3,000,000 worth of picks.

    If the team drafting first didn't have a real advantage overall and not just with the first pick, it wouldn't be fair, and the draft wouldn't be set up that way. It's an attempt to try to achieve parity and help the bad teams catch up with the good teams.

    It isn't just the first pick that is more valuable. It's the first pick in every round. Accept it, please.
     
    #202 NCJetsfan, Oct 5, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2017
  3. ukjetsfan

    ukjetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I was about to try another argument, but I don't think I will, because I really don't want to fall out with anybody on this board over something like this. We are both frustrated at not being able to get our message across, but sometimes it's best to just agree to disagree and move on - there are lots of other things to discuss.

    And while I do enjoy a good debate, I do not get any pleasure out of winding people up, so I apologise for pushing you over the edge on this matter! It was not done on purpose.

    Homeofthejets expressed an interest in seeing the relevant section of the book, so I will post that when I finally get my hands on it. I got the book back in 1988 and haven't read it for years and I think I lent it to a friend, so I'll need to get it back.

    Just a few words on the book - not in an attempt to validate my argument, just to point out that it's a serious book written by serious people. It doesn't make them infallible, of course.

    Co-author Pete Palmer was (and still is) a ststistician and is widely credited with being a key player in the birth of sabermetrics. John Thorn is currently the official historian for Major League Baseball. Bob Carroll was a respected sports historian who was editor of The Official Encyclopedia of the National Football League.

    That doesn't mean they were right in this book, but it does mean they were serious and respected statisticians/historians/sports experts. When I get hold of the book again I will post the chapter on the draft - I think it was titled 'The Draft Dodge'.
     
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  4. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I'll remain curious to see how this very counter-intuitive theory is proven.
     
  5. ukjetsfan

    ukjetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Well, I really don't think it's a case of proving it. It's just a different way of looking at the situation. If you isolate the draft into individual rounds, it's obvious the team picking first in each round has the advantage. If you view the draft as a continuing cycle of picks, without splitting it up, it looks different. There's no arguing that, overall, the team picking first has the most valuable draft, all things being equal, the difference lies in the perception of where the extra value is located. One perception shows the value being spread out in small increments throughout the draft, the other sees it as being placed entirely in one huge chunk - the first pick. The overall 'values' of the draft are exactly the same, whichever way you look at it.

    ... and I seem to have strayed into arguing the case again, but I hope in a way that shows this is just a matter of perception, not absolute truth.

    I hope?

    From what I remember, the premise of the chapter in the book was that the draft didn't help the weakest team as much as people tend to believe, because (in the authors' opinion) the extra value was all tied up in that first pick. If the team screwed up that pick, it had lost its chance to make up ground on the rest of the league. That's what I remember, anyway, it was a long time ago that I read it, and almost 30 years since I first read it!
     
  6. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Well until I can see the premise laid out in detail, I remain unconvinced.

    But your last point may have some merit - that after the very first pick, Team #1's advantage isn't as great -though it is still an advantage. I can accept that because the fact is that as you go deeper into the talent pool, it gets diluted and so the ACTUAL advantage, based upon the numbers, isn't as great. Perhaps that's what the authors were getting at.

    The problem is that you have a system based upon numbers being applied to something very subjective. Now, at the top end, players who are perceived to be high draft picks are ranked that high because "most" evaluators agree they're that good, but as you proceed lower down, that consensus begins to fracture, so throwing the rankings into confusion. So the first pick in subsequent rounds is far less certain to be a good player than the very first one, and in reality it often happens that a player picked later in that round is better than the first or second player picked. It all boils down to how good is your scouting and evaluation? And the further reality is that weaker teams usually have poorer scouting and evaluation methods and personnel, thus erasing any "numerical advantage" they might possess by their draft position. That's why Cleveland continues to suck, despite regular great draft position.

    BUT...if a team DOES have good scouting and evaluation methods/personnel, a high draft position can be a true advantage.
     
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  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I know it wasn't done on purpose. Apology accepted, and I hope that you accept my apology. I truly appreciate and respect your civility in the face of my hostility.
     
  8. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    That's where they go wrong imo. Their basic premise is flawed. It isn't that there isn't value with having the first pick in each round, it's that bad teams often miss on their picks because they have poor scouts, GMs, HCs and owners. If great teams miss on draft picks, they won't stay great long, and of course if bad teams draft poorly, they'll never achieve parity with the good and great teams. That has little to do with drafting first in each round, but rather drafting poorly.
     
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  9. ukjetsfan

    ukjetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Great points by both of you here - having the top pick can sometimes be little more than another chance for the team to show why it got the first pick in the first place - it's a sucky organisation!

    And NC, of course I accept your apology. Message boards can sometimes create tension - I've seen it happen many times, because there is no way to read how a person is saying something. If we'd been sat in a bar having a few beers I think the conversation would have gone very differently. Or you'd have poured a beer over my head...
     
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  10. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks! Yes, they can.

    LOL Nah, wouldn't have poured a beer over your head. Wouldn't have wanted to waste a good beer. I may have been hesitant to buy the next round, however. ;):p
     
  11. JetsFanDoc

    JetsFanDoc Well-Known Member

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    Ya know, coming in to the season I really wanted that 1st pick because I thought Darnold was the next "can't miss" QB prospect. Like Peyton was, and Luck was coming out of college. A guy who you absolutely are SURE will be a franchise guy. However, due to that I have been watching him very closely and I severely underwhelmed. I'm not saying he won't end up being a good QB in the NFL when it's all said and done, I just don't put him in that class. He has a very slow release, and although I know he has been dealing with a subpar o-line he just hasn't been making great decisions.

    It's actually sort of liberating. There are so many good QB prospects who will be coming out this season and they can take a good long look and take the one they really feel will be the best whenever they pick. And let the chips fall where they may. Joe B was yelling about this last week and although I usually disagree with his takes, I actually agreed with him on this. You really just have to get lucky and make the right pick whenever you pick.
     
  12. chrisrex

    chrisrex Active Member

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    You guys just made my day. So nice to see such wonderful sentiments in the midst of the usual yelling and bullshit :)
     
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  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    All the credit goes to ukjetsfan. If he had responded negatively or with the same (or worse) hostile tone that I had used, then even though I felt guilty and had planned to apologize, I may have responded defensively or in an even more hostile fashion. His remaining calm and civil helped me to respond in kind.
     
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  14. Longsuffering88

    Longsuffering88 Well-Known Member

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    Where are the nut huggers talking about "playing hard and learning how to win" today?

    You're either a short term fan or severely retarded to think 6-10 is a good year because "young players learned how to win"

    We secured ourselves another bullshit year with no clear direction.

    Mo needs to be cut asap. Macc needs to be extended, Bowles needs to be cut. McCown gets a high five for good play, and we need to go 100% youth and tank.

    Morons
     

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