But what are the Giants odds of winning in overtime? In the long run the Falcons are the better team, so those odds have to be less than 50%. In reality the odds of making a 2 point conversion are also less than 50%, but there are also nonzero odds of missing one of the extra points. So I'm not saying going for 2 in general is definitely a good idea (because I don't know the exact probabilities), but it might have been the right play. Also, the Giants just made the second 2 pointer, so if not for the field goal, the game would be tied right now. Though I will say the QB sneaks were plain dumb.
Hot take: After seeing Sanchez and Geno from 2012-2014, I don't think Eli is as bad as people are making him out to be, and the Giants' problems run much deeper than Eli.
How about Super Bowl gag artist Dan Quinn who somehow drops the prevent defense with 2 minutes to go up two scores (exactly when you should be playing it since the Giants had 0 timeouts).
Wow... bad clock management, bad play calling, no time-outs left, nothing happening in the red zone, offensive line is a sieve. In every area we complain about the Jets, the Giants are worse. Eli has 2 legit blue chip weapons in Barkley and OBJ - imagine if Sam had weapons like that.
I have to admit that I'm starting to get worried that they're so bad that they'll only win 2 or 3 games and get another crack at a quarterback. Picking Barkley would still remain the wrong decision, but they might end up getting away with it and end up with Barkley and a quarterback. They only play two more AFC teams, so it's not even like they can help the Jets out by unexpectedly winning games out of conference. I have family in Philly, so I guess I can root for them against Washington next week.
Math behind why Shurmur's decision was correct. Assume probability of getting 1 is 100%, probability of getting 2 is 50%, probability of winning in OT is 50%, the Giants get 2 TDs, and the Falcons don't score again (the Falcons did score again making the whole thing moot): Go for 1 both times: 100% of the time the game goes into overtime, so probability of winning is 50%. Go for 2 both times: 25% of the time the Giants win, 50% of the time the game goes into overtime, and 25% of the time the Giants lose. So probability of winning is 50%. Go for 1 the first time and 2 the second: 50% of the time the Giants win and 50% of the time the Giants lose. So probability of winning is 50%. Go for 2 the first time and use the outcome to decide what to do the second time (which is what Shurmur did): 50% of the time the Giants convert the first two pointer. Then they kick the extra point and win. 25% of the time the Giants miss the first two pointer and make the second, sending the game into overtime. 25% of the time the Giants miss both two pointers and lose. So the probability of winning is 50% + half of 25%, or 62.5%.