Unbiased Case for Saquon at 3

Discussion in 'Draft' started by FrontOfficeFanatic, Mar 28, 2018.

  1. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    I'm here, ain't no way I would run from your ignorance.
    Barkley over Mayfield or Allen all day long.
    What do you want to bet?
     
  2. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    Barkley will probably go 1 or 2, atleast you better be praying so "SETH". Otherwise what jersey number is he going to wear in Green and White? Our offense next year, will be far superior than any combo of Mayfield or Allen in a JETS jersey.
    Who knows, maybe NCJETSFAN has worked with Hack and he is now ready to be our FQB?
    I can't wait till draft day!

    Run from you? Call me out?
    Not hardly pea brain.
     
  3. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    I'll bet you a forum ban, and don't call me chicken when I called you out a week ago.

    Don't be sad that we aren't taking Barkley. It will be okay, I promise. <3
     
  4. Cidusii

    Cidusii Well-Known Member

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    There is a case for the Jets only liking two QBs and having a Barkley or Chubb as their third option based on probabilities, but it's pretty tenuous. Chances are they have 3 QBs in mind, but I'll present the case since it's a week from the draft and there's not much new to discuss.

    Let's say the Jets only like 2 QBs in the draft. They look at the people ahead of them, and determine the probability of either of those QBs falling to them at 6. Based on most discussions here, that probability is likely 0%, or just above that.

    What is the probability of their top QB being there if they move up to pick 1? 100%. This is ideal, but the cost is crazy.

    What is the probability of their top QB being there if they move up to pick 2? Let's assign 50% to this, since we know the Browns are going to take a QB, but not who. What's the chance of their second QB being here at pick 2? 100%. This isn't bad either, but the cost is high and a trade with the Giants is unprecedented.

    What is the probability of their top QB being there if they move up to pick 3? Let's assign 25%. Their second best QB? 50%. These are pretty arbitrary probabilities, but at pick 3 there is a high chance they get the QB they want. If not? Their consolation prize is the top non-QB in the draft (Barkley/Chubb). This will cost them 3 2nd round picks, and no 1st round picks. The Jets see this as a bargain given their chance at one of their QBs, with an amazing fall back plan.

    Those assigned probabilities likely go down if the Jets' top 2 align with the Browns/Giants'/Giants' trade partner's top 2, and go up if they don't.

    Having said all this, chances are the Jets are happy with at least 3 of the 4 top QBs, not that I agree. I just wouldn't be totally surprised or angry if the Jets went Barkley with Rosen/Darnold off the board already, and ended up taking a flier on Mike White / Lauletta / Falk later in the draft.
     
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  5. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    The only issue is that we TRADED UP already, and obviously did so since we love at last 3 QBs. I guess those are Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield. If we stayed at 6, a non QB would have been option, but moving up forces us to go QB, which is the move the franchise needed. There is no scenario where the Jets don't go QB in a week, zero.

    Oh, and trading 3 2nds for a RB would/should get any GM fired, so disagree with your opinion as well, but that's irrelevant.
     
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  6. Cidusii

    Cidusii Well-Known Member

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    I guess it comes down to whether you view 3 2nds as worth a high probability (say 80% if the GM has done their homework) of getting the QB(s) you want, with a non-QB BPA fallback, or it's only worth it if getting the QB(s) you want is guaranteed. Again, it's a bit of a stretch, but I don't see it as absolutely outlandish. I don't know enough about Mac's thought processes to say with 100% certainty he loves 3 QBs. 90% certainty? Sure.
     
  7. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    It's 10000% outlandish when you factor in the context of the situation. The last team to trade up for a RB in the top five without a FQB were the Browns for Richardson, and look how that wound up. We'd sooner just have stayed at 6 and go BPA, and take a great RB prospect in round 2 and save our picks versus moving up for a damn RB. Trust me, it's not happening, it's not even a 0.1% chance, which is why I challenged the schmuck above to a forum ban bet.
     
  8. Cidusii

    Cidusii Well-Known Member

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    As I said above, it's not trading up for a RB, it's trading up for a high probability of getting the QB you want. At this stage the Browns are probably taking a QB at 1. If the Giants don't take Barkley (unlikely), AND pick the QB we wanted, Barkley falls to us. There's a lot of strength of position in that pick even if you want a QB at that stage. It also locks out someone else jumping up to get a QB you want.

    Again, it's much more likely they have 3 QBs they want, since people are typically risk averse.
     
  9. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    We traded up because we were afraid of being locked out of a QB they liked, this I agree with you about, which is why they are locked in on QB to begin with. So the Jets have a 100% chance of getting one of the 3 QBs they desire, hence the move up versus just staying at 6.
     
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  10. JethroTull

    JethroTull 2018 Least Knowledgeable Poster

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    Im sorry, but you cannot give up what we gave up to draft a 6ft spread QB.

    Taking Barkley over Mayfield would be ridiculed, but Barkley will almost certainly have a better career.
     
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  11. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    That's simply a poor statement, considering we have QBs as tall or shorter be successful. And it's not about the better career, but rather having to take a swing at a QB after moving up. We're taking a QB, and it might be Mayfield, that's just reality.
     
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  12. Sam Hammer

    Sam Hammer Well-Known Member

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    Oh wow, you must have a crystal ball, since you already know how these guys' careers will turn out before they play a single snap in the NFL.
     
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  13. PennyandtheJets

    PennyandtheJets Well-Known Member

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    Being a 6ft tall QB doesn't matter. It has been proven that being that height does not impede on the ability to throw from the pocket effectively.
     
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  14. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    Isn't Wilson shorter than Mayfield, and Brees the same height? The argument is such a fallacy and laughable.
     
  15. Sam Hammer

    Sam Hammer Well-Known Member

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    Yep, Wilson is 5'11.
     
  16. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    2 Qbs in the past 20 years (both with bigger hands that came from an NFL offense in college and the other more mobile) one that landed in a perfect situation and has tailed off now, the other who didn't succeed until later in his career with a different team doens't paint a good picture
     
  17. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    both wilson and brees have big hands (over 10 inch) wilson is also much more athletic then mayfield. Both played in an NFL system on college. both were not drafted in the 1st round let along 3rd overall. Brees also failed with his original team and didn't see success until going to NO. Wilson has tailed off now that sea isn't as stacked with talent. no WR or TE has played well with wilson either. Kearse did better with mccown throwing him the ball then he ever did with wilson. Tate sucked with wilson but is playing great with stafford. graham was an all pro with brees, but sucked with wilson.
     
  18. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    Well somebody must catch for him, he has had 2000 completions after all :rolleyes:
     
  19. Seth

    Seth Active Member

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    This just screams a bunch of random crap thrown at the wall for those who don't like Mayfield, no offense. Fact is that Mayfield can be the next great short QB or he can be a bust, but that applies to any of these QBs. I just don't buy the height and arm size argument, I just don't.
     
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  20. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I broke it down before so don't feel like doing it again but kearse, graham, and tate all had much better years when leaving wilson at QB then they did with wilson. We'll see if graham can redeem himself this year being on GB now but i'm willing to bet he has a better year then he ever did with wilson.
     

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