IMO in 3-4 years or so this QB class is going to be fine - not quite like 83 and 04 but close. I can see 3-4 solid, very good starters that COULD carry their respective teams deep into the playoffs any given year - if the chips fall in place around them. Between this current rookie class, mahomes, and watson..........the NFL has gotten a sorely needed infusion of good young QB talent.
It will be interesting to track as this plays out over the next few years. Baker is on fire as a rookie, but also has by far the most NCAA starting experience and reps as well as being the oldest of this class. Now its up to the younger guys to keep progressing and see if the field evens out some.
The goalposts aren't moving at all. I also didn't say that Darnold is very accurate right now. What I'm saying is if you look at their careers from college until now, there are certain trends that if you look at them logically, they can kind of pave the path for the player. Josh Allen was a terribly inaccurate college QB. Completion percentage isn't the definitive measure of accuracy, but it's pretty god damn close. If you start two seasons on the collegiate level, in a conference that has close to no competition, and you complete 56% of your passes both years... then I think it's pretty fair to say you are not an accurate passer. He lacks touch which definitely factors in, but at what point does that start to come to him? He's no closer to having that touch than he was three years ago walking on the field for Wyoming for the first time. So logically, when you look at the body of work, you can absolutely, VERY fairly say that he is not an accurate QB and there are no signs pointing to him becoming one. Sam Darnold completed 67% and 63% of his passes in his two years as a starter at USC. Not fantastic competition, but certainly more than Wyoming faced. Darnold had better receivers, undoubtedly. But he displayed traits that Allen didn't even show signs of. Then you look at what he's done so far in the NFL... has it been great? No, not by any stretch of the imagination. But when you dig game by game you can see the glimpses of what he showed in college. He's had multiple games above 60%. and you'd have to be a total self-loathing SOJF to dismiss some of the plays we've seen him make. His whole body of work would logically tell you that those high percentage games are more of an indicator of what he'll be, because it's closer to what he's been. Both have awful supporting casts, I'd say it's just about equal with Sam getting the boost because Quincy, Herndon and Robby have helped him a ton. One has only had success on the ground and continues a career-long trend of struggling to get it done through the air. The other has shown the ability to make every throw in the book while also being able to avoid the pressure when it comes. There are clear-cut differences between the two just like there were in college. When you look at the trends, it's not unfair at all to say that Allen is just continuing a trend of being an inaccurate passer.
Just some quick numbers I gathered on pro football reference. I left out Baker, since he is the best without a doubt right now. He's also got a few years and a more talented team than the other three. Regardless, he's the best rookie QB this year. Unfortunately, I have no idea how to embed it as an image so I'll give it as an ugly table. Year Age Tm Pos G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD 2018 22 Josh Allen QB 9 8 119 227 52.4 1429 5 2.2 9 4 75 6.3 5 12 158.8 62.8 55.1 26 195 4.88 3.67 10.3 1 2 2018 21 Sam Darnold QB 10 10 175 313 55.9 2104 12 3.8 15 4.8 76 6.7 5.3 12 210.4 69.5 33.9 21 129 5.91 4.61 6.3 1 1 2018 21 Josh Rosen QB 11 10 174 314 55.4 1910 10 3.2 12 3.8 75 6.1 5 11 173.6 68.3 31.1 29 219 4.93 3.94 8.5 1 2 For those who don't want to read the eye sore that is that table. Here are the stats that Darnold leads the other two in: Cmp% Yds TD TD% Y/A AY/A- Adjusted Yards gained per Attempt (takes TDs and INTs into account) Y/G QB Rating Sacks Sack yards Sack% NY/A- Net Yards gained per Pass ANY/A- Adjusted net yards per pass attempt Here is where Darnold falls short: INTs INT% QBR Overall- He isnt a finished product, and he has to secure the ball better. We all know this. It was his big issue in college as well. Having said that, as a thrower, he has statistically been the best of the 3 so far with regards to playmaking. I think to this point, the Jets made the best selection for their QB.
Credit where its due, you explained your points to give it more creedence. But you arent watching the tape. I wont make declarations about sam bc i havent watched, then rewatched, then looked at the all 22 for every snap hes taken the same way i have for Allen. If you had, youd notice differences in the way he approaches situational passing. In his 8 games playing, the tape from the 1st compared to the last 4 show exactly what one would hope to see improve from him improve. When to gun it and when to put touch has improved. If the guy was as grossly inaccurate as you say, then we wouldnt be able to say things like his ball placement has improved - but it has. Also, not mentioned is if we simply compare the two you get apples to oranges to a degree in that their strengths in their games are totally different. Sam seems to be the ultimate west coast guy. While Josh is more of a downfield passer. Thats just who they are. If you dislike that style bc generally completion % is lower fine, but dont act like its a general knock on the kid. The kid has had some special throws that like Sams pinpoint throw last week, not many NFL guys make and they were done with pinpoint accuracy. That simply wouldnt happen if he didnt have any accuracy. Progress is happening before our eyes if you like it or not for these kids. Also, why do you keep ignoring the fact these kids are throwing to scrubs? Id imagine Sam is similar as they both have depleted WR corps, but no one is making plays for Allen. There are no bad balls that the WR makes a great play to help the qb out . Passing has been a big part of Allens successes this year. It just happens the dude has the skills to rip of chunk runs. As i said earlier, if he has 9 scrambles for 35 yards then no one is talking about his running being over relied on. Since its 9 for over 100 its easy to assume thats the only stregenth - yet he has shown progress and proficiency passing that anyone should be excited to see from a rookie. If it wasnt, you wouldnt get articles from Brady Quinn arguing why Allen has been the best, or Simms saying the Giants should have taken Allen #2. Sure you still get the opposite end, but the aforementioned ones wouldnt exist. Both these guys have similar teams around them as Rosen, but unlike Rosen - these 2 guys have found ways to stick out as carrying their offenses. Once both teams add what is needed to help these 2 flourish, its going to be a fun AFCE for years to come. Itll be a hoot to watch, for sure.
Well hopefully we can be fighting it out for the division title while the cheats and fish flap about for the wooden spoon for 10 years
I agree Darnold has outperformed Rosen and Allen, but all three of them have done significantly worse than any other starting QB in the league. Though they're all 21 year old rookies playing for crap teams, so they don't have much to work with.
The problem you aren't considering is that Allen would look worse as a passer if not for his running ability. Because he runs so well and so often, defenses have to use one of their linebackers, who would ordinarily blitz or drop into coverage, as a spy. Which means on the plays Allen doesn't run, he's essentially playing 11 vs 10. The best example is RG3; he put up terrific passing numbers in his rookie year because defenses were terrified of his running ability. But once he got hurt enough that he couldn't run anymore, defenses played him normally and suddenly he looked like a terrible passer. Allen is bigger and stronger than RG3, so that won't happen to him. But I don't think he can run like this his whole career, i.e. he isn't Cam Newton.
Well yea, but that doesnt have anything to do with the thread at hand. The premise is to track the rookie QBs lol. Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Running was always part of the package with Allen. Not why he wouldn't be able to continue this in some capacity throughout his career. Cam Newton is probably one of he best comps for him. Jets acquire #3 overall pick Post by: legler82, Mar 22, 2018 in forum: New York Jets
I watched a ton of Wyoming games so I knew his accuracy was not as bad as his CMP% would suggest. I can say the same about Darnold this year as I've watched every single one of Darnold's snaps in green and white. 56% is not indicative of how accurate he has been. Admittedly, I haven't watched any tape of Allen this year other than this past game against us. Even with that small and terrible sample size, I maintain his accuracy, IMO, is, with good coaching, good enough for him to succeed at the NFL level, especially when considering all the other tools and gifts he brings to the table. You are one of these dudes that equate CMP% with accuracy so there's not much for us to discuss further but I can't help myself. Using CMP% to gauge accuracy w/o actually watching a guy play can have you either overrate or underrate his accuracy. Bryce Petty completed 63% of his passes in college to Darnold's 65%, do we really think Darnold is just 2% points more accurate than Petty?
He was terrible but I've seen Darnold look terrible as well. As I said in my last post, I saw that he was accurate enough that under the right scheme and better talent, you can succeed with him when you take into account his overall talent. Every once in a while, he's going to be able make plays whether with his feet and/or arm that very few can make that win you games. I go back to the Cam comparison, he's not a naturally accurate QB but he's been a winning QB. Coincidently, this year Cam is completing a shade under 70% of his passes, 10+% higher than his career average proving my point high CMP% can be schemed.
I dont disagree that accuracy can be coached up, but I dont think Allen is in Cam's league as a talent. What I learned from Sunday's game is that if Allen cant move the ball with his legs he's going to have tremendous moving it accurately with his arm.
if I can be bothered i will do it but it would be interesting to compare the current crop against last year's and the year before's rookies at the same point in time (or the end of the season to make life easier)
I mean I've watched virtually every game he's played so far and thats what I've noticed. He's incredible when running. I havent been terribly impressed when forced in the pocket. Having said that, he needs more help around him, thats for sure.
I knew Allen could run, but I didn't know he could run for 100 yards in a game and I don't think anyone else knew either. And Newton is more muscular than Allen, so he can take more of a pounding. Also I'm surprised how healthy Newton has been throughout his career, I don't think Allen will be able to match that.
I think to a degree as well, Allen will always have this thing where he just, for whatever reason, sails one. Like when he missed the net at the combine. This post isnt about sam asmuch bc he isnt thought of as inaccurate. People see a BAD miss by JA and take away he isnt accurate. He can fit it in small spaces and has shown that ability as the year progressed. What he has also done, is every once in a while (usually early on, and not yet on an important throw) he just lets one go that just isnt even close...to anyone or anything. Obviously this is stepping back from stats for a sec, but on occasion something breaks down and ZOOM- away it goes. Just a bad ball. Im sure most guys go through that once inna while in practice or a game, but his are wwwaaayyyyy offf and hes good for usually one a game. Not every 3rd throw, not 2 in a row, and its usually a wr screen. But, bc its Allen its bc he is inaccurate fwiw
