Too concerned with 'value'

Discussion in 'Draft' started by Imagesrdecieving, Mar 16, 2017.

  1. Imagesrdecieving

    Imagesrdecieving Well-Known Member

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    I just wanted to say that I think that in sports drafts - there's too much concern with draft 'value'.

    It's a situation where players get passed over because the value isn't there. GM's are concerned with criticism because they 'reached'.

    My thoughts are if you think a player has got the goods then you go and get your guy.

    It's OJ Howard at 6 that had me on this line of thinking. I haven't seen a single second of the kid play - so what I'm saying is more conceptual than anything. But if he's the guy that has the best chance of making the best long term impact for the Jets then who cares if it's considered a reach.

    This is the philosophy that I hope Mac employs in the draft.

    My mindset is that outside of punter/kicker - a superstar anything is worth more to the franchise than an above average anything. Especially when we are devoid of talent as we are.

    Thoughts?

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  2. RIPJimLeonhard

    RIPJimLeonhard Active Member

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    I saw somewhere a question asked, "If you had the opportunity to pick Rob Gronkowski with the 6th pick in the draft, would you?" Obviously a bit of stretch to immediately say Howard will be as good as Gronk; but without a doubt the value of TE has improved drastically anyways, at one point Jimmy G was the best receiver on the Saints for a while, on top of the fact if you can get a TE that can block as well you get amazing value. Wouldn't be mad if the Jets drafted him at 6, heard lots of positive things about him, heard he is the best TE in the draft, and is possibly one of the most NFL ready prospects, only thing keeping this guy from.being a top 5 pick is his position, don't sleep on TE's though.
     
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  3. QBorbust

    QBorbust New Member

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    I agree it's funny when I see people talking about an LT that is not a value at 6 but if you trade down you could grab him. If there is a guy you feel can start at LT he is worth it at 6 just the same, LTs are making 15 mil a year now there are not enough to go around. So either he's worth it at 6 or not worth a 1st at all. I see the same with QBs either you think they can start or not trading down doesn't make it any less of a bad pick if you don't fully believe in the prospect.
     
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  4. GreenGreek

    GreenGreek Well-Known Member

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    One concerning thing with taking a TE that high is longevity. A lot of the elite TEs seem to be constantly banged up. Similar to RBs, a short shelf life may offset the increased impact of TEs.
     
  5. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    A playmaker tightens helps every quarterback out, but specifically young quarterbacks. It opens up the middle of the field and teams are always looking for speedy mismatches.

    The kid is a stud. Unless it's a fullback I don't care about where a position is supposed to be drafted. Do you think the Cowboys have any regrets about taking their All-Pro guard at 17 because it was 'too high' to take a guard?! No f'n way.

    He's a playmaker. We need playmakers. He's also great value at 6 in spite of his position. We've created such a large emphasis of only drafting defense high. How about we take an offensive playmaker for once?!
     
  6. RubenDias

    RubenDias Well-Known Member

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    I would prefer 10 times OJ Howard over Mike Williams at #6 thing is these two safetys and foster catch my eye i have to be honest. Its difficult to choose between these 5 players i mean OJ , Adams , Hooker , fournette and Foster but also its not my job on the line just hope it turns out to be a good player overall regardless of position.
     
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  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I think the Jets would be very fortunate to land any of those 5 players (assuming that Foster's character checks out and he doesn't have serious anger issues, Fournette's ankles check out, and Hooker looks to have recovered or be well on his way to recovery from his surgery with no ill effects).
     
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  8. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x Well-Known Member

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    I agree completely with this post. Considering the pre draft hype, Geno Smith was fantastic value where we drafted him and where did that get us?

    If there's a guy on the board that is a fantastic football player then the ideal time to take them is while they are still there. Trading down is great and a valid tactic for our talent deprived Jets, but you don't trade down to target a specific player. When you trade down you're essentially giving up the player you could've had unless very lucky and shrewd.

    In regards to Howard, assuming he doesn't get picked before us, then the team needs to decide whether they want a potential top 5 TE, stockpiled draft picks, or something else. I'm guilty of daydreaming about trading down and still getting him, but it's not realistic. If we trade down, we almost certainly lose him.

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  9. RIPJimLeonhard

    RIPJimLeonhard Active Member

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    Don't entirely agree, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzales, Shannon Sharpe, all well known tight ends who had/Still having long successful careers. I've noticed TE's can still be reliable well into their mid 30's mostly because they rely more on their size and routes over speed, the main reason why smaller fast receivers don't usually survive past 30.
     
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  10. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Assuming we find a partner we should trade down because as you said we are talent deprived EVERYWHERE

    OJ is a gem totally agree...

    But you cant have your cake and eat it too..I would just let him go This year its shrewder to stockpile picks and players

    jmho
     
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  11. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    Howard at 6 will not be a reach. He's that good.
     
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  12. Leicester Jet

    Leicester Jet Active Member

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    I 100% agree with this. I watched every Bama game last year and he was Mr Dependable. He wasn't used that much, but when he was he dropped very little and he could be relied on to make the required yards. He was used by Bama much more as a blocker and with his height and size he was very, very effective.

    I would be delighted if we took OJ Howard at 6 and after a few years, so would everyone else.
     
  13. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    The problem with the OP's argument is GMs often trick themselves into thinking they're better at evaluating talent than they really are. In reality, the guy you're convinced is a stud is no more likely to become a stud than the guy some other GM is convinced is a stud. The solution is to take advantage by maximizing draft value, which Belichick is the master of doing. His success rate with drafted players is no better than that of other GMs, but by maximizing value through trade downs and comp picks, he gets more out of the draft than they do.
     
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  14. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Yep. He hedges his bet way more than anyone because he knows the draft is crapshoot. I believe he's had multiple picks in rounds 1-4 in nearly every year over the past decade.

    The last draft he didn't have multiple picks in the first four rounds is 2007. I don't get why more teams haven't tried this model. Everyone becomes so enamored with one player in the first or second round that they don't want to trade down.

    They had 4 second round picks in 2009, 3 second round picks in 2010. Belichick seemed to figure this out right around that time and accumulates picks like crazy ever since. No wonder their pipeline continues to replenish itself.

    And they don't hit on every pick. No one does. Which is why it's best to buy as many lottery tickets as possible.

    The Browns seem to be trying this. We shall see how it works out for them.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm
     
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  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    IMO there is no one "right" or best way to approach the draft, and every draft is different.

    Trading down, and seeking value can work. It can also bite you in the ass. Look at the year Parcells was buying the groceries, traded down multiple times and passed up not one, but TWO HOF LTs, and mostly wound up with a bunch of crap. I'll put my money on someone like Mac, with an extensive scouting and personnel background.

    Belichik has no background in scouting. He's a great HC, but the primary reason he has been so successful is Brady. Anyone else who has missed as much as he has in the draft wouldn't have had their job for long.
     
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  16. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    Of course trading down can backfire. But there's no way of knowing ahead of time whether it will work or not, and it works more often than not. If Mac thinks his scouting background can let him keep hitting on 17, he's not going to last much longer.
     
  17. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias Well-Known Member

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    We need OJ. When was the last time we had a legit TE, here? Keller?
     
  18. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    If he lives up to his track record he'll be better than Keller by far.
     
  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    IMO Keller wasn't a legit TE. The last legit TE we had would be Kellen Winslow, Jr. and he was too busy playing with himself to do much on the field.
     
  20. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean keep hitting on 17?

    I think Mac realizes that he needs to increase his chances of success in the draft by trading down. That's why he made the comment about being open for business. Mac has impressed me as being someone who has a lot of common sense, is practical and realistic. He knows how many holes the Jets have and how difficult it would be to adequately address all of those, add depth and quality STs players in just a few drafts with only 7 picks a draft.
     

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