If the Jets invested and evaluated the position better, Jets would have a franchise QB on this roster. 2014 was the yr to do it with Bridgewater / Carr. That was the Jets ONLY shot.
Only 1 QB came out of the 2014 draft and he was the 4th guy picked. That was one of the real conundrums in that draft and why taking a QB wasn't the priority. We weren't talking the '83 draft - as much as some here wanted to paint it that way. The Jets have had several chances to take a QB over the last decade and we've picked wrong each time. That's why we are where we are right now. We didn't have a real shot at anybody who was obviously good at any point due to our draft position and the fact that the guys who got by us all had question marks attached, which is one of the big reasons they got by us. The no-brainer QB picks of the last decade were all in front of the Jets pick in the year in question. That's why not fighting for a mediocre finish next year when that's the ceiling is important. 4-12 to 9-7 just puts us back at square one again.
Your logic is why the Jets should draft Mahomes or Watson this year: there is more likelihood of them finishing better than they did last year, which will drop them out of the "no-brainer" choices. Yes, it's a flawed approach, but it's better than not drafting ANY QBs. It's like tournament fishing: the guys who usually and consistently win don't just try for the big lunkers, they scoot all over the lake trying different holes and if they don't hit after a short time they pull up anchor and go onto the next hole.
Are either Mahomes or Watson no-brainers? I see your point however drafting the better of two QB's on the 6 is just as likely to get the worse of two QB's on the 6. This assuming that a case can't be made for either of them being a clearly better prospect. The way I'd do it is to trade down the 6 and keep the option open. If one of them goes before the pick you traded down too then take the other one on the pick. You get a guy who is no more or less likely to succeed and you also get the value of the trade down out of the deal. This also assuming that the NFL doesn't see one of the guys as clearly a top 10 pick and the Jets do not concur in that assessment. In that case you take the guy on the 6 because a QB on the 6 who is top 10 value is worth more than any other player on the 6 who is top 10 value.
Bortles was the high riser in that draft with Bridgewater and Carr being the consistent players that performed well in college. Scouts and teams picked on the "flaws" Bridgewater [frail / questionable arm] and Carr [family history / not enough exposure] had and they fell in the draft to the end of the first / 2nd respectively. Fans here loved those 2 QBs. I would almost go to say scouts over analyzed the situation. This was the one true shot they had in the last decade or so. They had 2 QBs that graded out well and played well at the collegiate level and they decided to go with Calvin Pryor. Smith didn't prove anything and we should've taken a QB.
Bridgewater may never play the game again and he certainly wasn't lighting things up in the two years he played. I don't think the scouts over-analyzed anything. They saw frail and mediocre arm and they called it like they saw it. Maybe he should have gone a bit higher in the draft but he wasn't likely to be a long-term franchise QB given his flaws so it is understandable that he did not. The Vikings traded back up into the 1st round to take him for the 5th year option because they thought the consensus on his legs and frame and arm was wrong. For that move they got the privilege of two years spent not throwing the ball into the endzone because they didn't trust Bridgewater's arm.
Are you going to replay 2014 over and over again until Carr is the only man left standing from the QB class and somehow change the actual results based on the opinion that you parrot about it? 1983 and 2004 produced actually good QB's in numbers. 2014 produced more hype than anything else and all the QB's fell except the guy who looked like an NFL QB when everything was said and done. 3 years later it's pretty clear that the hype-train was on full express that year and the team that made out despite that was the team that passed on all 4 of them in the 1st round and just took the guy who fell to them early in the 2nd. That's getting great value out of your picks. Listening to the hype-train just caused 3 other franchises pain. Note that the Vikings made two trades as a result of their desire to get Bridgewater and they're still paying the price on the second one.
I beg to differ. I think both are better than Carr/Bridgewater, and I especially think Mahomes is. Obviously I'm no expert, but the "experts" weren't so high on either back then, so who's to say?
What happened was a freak accident at practice for Bridgewater, he didn't get hit by a defender and break his leg. To say it would've happened here is a stretch. Teddy when he was healthy, the kid showed up and helped the Vikings win games. Trading for Bradford was a knee jerk reaction because they didn't have another QB on the roster that could win games. It was a bad mistake for the Vikings to make that trade. Lucky that coach is one hell of a defensive coach otherwise trading a first for Bradford is a "firable" offense. Considering Carr is one of the best QBs in the league right now, I would say yes. We missed the boat Brad, he was right there available OTC, and now one of the franchises I hate the most have him on the roster. So it does burn. He was born ready to play in the NFL, and would've revived this franchise. No mechanic changing required, he had the experience. Got no choice but to move on, but this franchise would've been in a better spot. Bridgewater, we can call him frail we can say he didn't have eye popping stats but the kid was winning games and showed up late in games to help his team win. You watch the 4th QTR and you tell me that isn't something special there? Both teams much farther ahead then the Jets.
Mahomes is not a better prospect then Carr, you are out of your mind. Carr has the arm strength Mahomes has with 10x the footwork, accuracy and played in a pro style offense. They compare Mahomes TO Carr, that's how good Carr is. Watson isn't nearly as good in the the decision making department in comparison to Teddy when he was coming out of college.
You make a compelling case for waiting to pick until you have a clear match between Value and Pick, but the impact of getting - or not getting - a FQB because you passed on him is hard to swallow if you get it wrong. From my POV, I could see drafting Fournette or Cook at #6, and hoping that Mahomes is there when I picked in the 2nd round, but I would shoot myself if he was taken ahead of me and went on to become the star I think he will be. Reference the Favre miss for a comparison. I hope that Macc & Co. know how to evaluate QBs, but so far, based on their record, I don't see it. But if they believe that Watson or Mahomes can be The Answer, I think they have to pull the trigger at #6 for whichever one they want.
And the same thing can be said - perhaps with even more certainty - about Watson. As for Mahomes, he hasn't played on the Big Stage like Watson, but he comes from a pro athlete pedigree, and has monster physical tools and a creativity to match. He might drive everyone crazy once in a while with his "creativity" and gunslinger mindset, but he sure would get everyone excited.
The 2017 draft has maybe 4 QB's in it that people are having trouble separating. None of them are lead pipe cinches to be a franchise QB. None of them are certain to be a starting QB of any caliber. The Jets have the 6 and the 39 pick, neither of which is going to get them a solid thing at QB for sure. The 6 pick will give them their choice of whomever the Browns/49ers pass up in their own self-destructive attempts to divine who will be good and who will bust out of a pool that has more busts than good guys in it. For spending the 6 pick in this way the Jets will have the privilege of acquiring a QB that some analysts will rank as a 2nd round pick and nobody will rank as a sure-thing top 10 player. The 39 pick will allow them to select the guy that every bad team in the NFL that really needs a QB has passed on twice already. The logical way to approach this is to trade down a couple of times in the 1st round and just take the guy you like in the mid to late 1st round, secure in the knowledge that you have the additional value that trading down once in a big way or a couple of times in lesser ways has also produced. The real answer in this draft is the same as 2014 - which is that there is no QB worth a top 10 pick in the draft and no matter how hard you squint you can't make one magically appear. The solution to that problem is to let the other teams sort things out for you, like the Raiders did with Derek Carr, and just take the guy who presents himself at a pick that is still high enough that it is clear that the NFL doesn't think he sucks. Most of the time when the NFL collectively thinks a player sucks they are right.
Mahomes will be a project coming in unless you're gonna build/cater an offense around him. While Watson is indeed not on Bridgewater's decision making level coming out...thats truthfully rare ground...Bridgewater was fantastic with hot reads, pre snap adjustments & beating the blitz. Watson does things w. the ball in his hands that Bridgewater couldn't dream of. They are just 2 very different style players. I think Watson has a "high IQ" aspect to his game as well...he understands & executes game plans very well..he'll take what the defense gives him..but knows when to take his shots. While I think he can start right off the bat..I do think he'd be best served w. an offense built around his strengths..that's certainly doable..the question is..will the Jets buy in? They tend to stay away from these "needs catering" types.
What you're advocating for is "punting the pick" down the line and letting other teams tell you who's good. But the problem is that when another team discovers it for you it's too late - the Jets aren't going to get Derek Carr. The harsh reality is that weak teams like the Jets HAVE to gamble. Taking the "safe" course isn;t an option. For one thing, there's no guarantee it's actually safe. For another, it doesn't bring the high rewards weak teams need. Yes, it does reduce the chance of high risk, but that's not guaranteed either. As to "none of them are certain to be a starting QB of any caliber", you can say that of almost every college QB...use Derek Carr as an example. The fact remains that the Jets need a FQB, or failing that, a major improvement in QB, and who they currently have aren't certain to fit the bill, nor are any of the FAs/Trades, so if they think that Watson or Mahomes can be The Answer, they have to have faith in their ability to assess QBs and pull the trigger. Frankly, I don't think they believe in themselves that much, and will either go "safe" and pick "D" again, or go "safe" and trade down. And we will once again be "safely" out of the running for the playoffs and for the best draft pick.
What did the Raiders do to get Carr? They correctly diagnosed that none of the QB's, including Carr, were worth the 5 pick - which allowed them to take Khalil Mack on that pick instead of gambling for a QB. They allowed every other team that needed a QB to have a pick in front of them, including the Houston Texans twice. They smoothly swooped in and took Carr on the 36 pick, secure in the knowledge that they hadn't reached for value and they'd also acquired one of the 4 guys in the QB conversation in 2014. That's how you win a hype-frenzy while three other teams are reaching for need (Jaguars-Bortles), taking a pure hype monster with the flaws that would destroy his career already evident (Browns-Manziel), and trading back into the 1st round for a guy that everybody saw as a low ceiling/high floor prospect (Vikings-Bridgewater). I'd probably take Watson or Mahomes on the 36 pick without thinking too hard about it. I might even take Trubisky or Kizer there depending on how my scouting team had him evaluated. I'd take none of them on the 6 pick given what we know now. I think it's pretty clear that Watson is the only one that is going to be defensible on that pick and then only if the combine and pro day matches up with what he's already done in his career at Clemson. Again, the 6 pick is not a pick to take a flier on a QB on. If you are fairly certain he's going to be good then you exercise that pick but if you have questions, well there are much safer things to do with the pick - starting with trading it down and diffusing some value and pulling a QB out later on in the top 36.
Watson's a good talent, but Carr was a better thrower of the football, and was able to run the pro style offense. He was probably able to run the pro style before he even went to HS. Carr has more of pro athlete pedigree then any of the QBs listed here. I encourage you to read up on Carr's story. He was watching NFL film at a very young age and learned a great deal about the game early in life. A lot of teams including the Texans and Jags sure are kicking themselves for not taking him right away. The football IQ is on another level.
You couldn't evaluate Carr that way in 2014. He was coming out of a Spread after one season of playing in a Pro Style offense his first year (just like Geno Smith BTW). He struggled with some of the requirements to run a Pro Style offense at the NFL level. Players are faster at the NFL level and QB's need to improve on existing skills to stay competitive. Here's a good example of the scouting communities take on Carr coming out of college: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/evaluating-the-evaluation-of-derek-carr/
