I'm concerned about Russian involvement on many levels. First and and foremost they want to deploy an anti-air system far more advanced than the S-300 they are toying with exporting (I believe it will be the s-500). This system, from what I've read, would have range well into Israel, Turkey, and a nice sized chunk of the Med, in addition to the areas on Syria that they're intending to cover. This gives the Russians the theoretical capability of interdicting air operations of many nations and causing huge problems for a lot of friendly nations. Even if there weren't an intentional incident, there is also the chance of an accidental firing. Needless to say this can lead to an array of unforeseen consequences. Now this only touches on one aspect of the Russian involvement in Syria, but it is concerning. Second, most Americans as thrilled we have avoided involvement in Syria, as am I, but the Russians moving in is NOT a good thing. Any time a nation involves itself in a conflict it is a risk/reward situation. In theory this is nothing but another Vietnam, right? But Russian involvement puts the Assad regime even more firmly into the lap of Russia and Iran by making the Baathists of Syria completely at the mercy of this foreign support. This means that the Russians will have created fo themselves an entirely compliment client state. There is basically nothing the Assad regime can refuse the Russians now simply because their very lives and existence depends on it. In short, American policy has (to some degree) allowed a situation to come into being where Assad is neither in charge of a stable Syria nor is he defeated and this is allowing unfriendly states like Iran and Russia to benefit. I can go on, but for now I will leave it here. I think the OP is likely correct about the Russian intent: they are coming to Syria to prop up the Baathists, not to involve themselves (at least not yet and not deeply) in a fight against ISIS. This is about gaining leverage in the ME, and protecting Russian interests such as their naval base. However, I would not be surprised in the least to find this to be part of a large move to isolate American power in the ME.
This is a bit more complex than that, but I get where you're coming from. Rus culture could arguable be said to have begun in the Ukraine (see Kievan Russia or Rus). So for all intents and purposes the Ukrainians and Russians were the same culture and society. However, identities change and starting about two centuries ago you begin to see something of a movement for Ukrainian independence. Now this isn't my speciality, so I'm not up on all the literature, but to my knowledge this was a pretty minor movement until the later 19th century when you start to get a much more fully formed Ukrainian identity and, ultimately, a short lived independent Ukraine which was subsumed by the communists. So while Ukraine has been a province of Russia for a VERY long time, they were move than than. I suppose you might take a look at the USA today and wonder where the American regions will go in another 300 to 500 years. Will California want o become independent? Texas (again)? There is some similarity in this comparison. As an aside, neither the modern Russians nor the Ukrainians have any uncontestable claim to the Crimea. That area is part of a rather huge swath of Muslim controlled land that was (re)taken in the post-Peter the Great Russian expansion that led to Russia becoming the great power it was. When the Ukraine became independent the Crimea probably should've been offered a referendum to choose its own future.
Many Eastern Ukrainians speak Russian as their native language. There is a discord in Ukraine, maybe like the one in Canada with French vs English as the native language. According to Putler though this makes Eastern Ukrainians who speak Russian "Russian" and therefore he has a right to defend them. He will of course deny the fact that his services are sending in agents of Russia into Ukraine but thats exactly what they're doing.
And so their investment will be real and consistent and ours will be weak and intermittent. Giving lip service to democracy and freedom is not a bad thing but once we actually commit resources there we're on a slippery slope because really we don't give a crap about democracy and freedom in the Ukraine we just want to mess with Putin and the Russians. If we really gave a crap about democracy and freedom we would do a lot more in other places where people are fighting for a voice and the right to live free. Instead we're often supporting the forces keeping them down to maintain stability and economic access to resources we care about. We substitute hypocrisy for our ideology wherever we think it serves our interests.
Russian Jets has entered into Turkish Air Space today and harassed Turkish fighter Jets. Interesting development. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/10/05/world/europe/ap-eu-turkey-russia-syria.html?_r=0 Turkey Vows to Protect Borders After Russian Jet Incursion By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSOCT. 5, 2015, 8:12 A.M. E.D.T. ANKARA, Turkey — Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu vowed Monday to take all necessary measures to protect Turkey's borders from violation after a Russian fighter jet entered its airspace over the weekend, prompting Turkey to scramble jets and summon the Russian ambassador in protest. Russia admitted the plane had entered Turkey "by mistake" and assured Ankara it would not happen again, he said. But a senior U.S. official said the Obama administration does not believe the incursion was an accident, and officials are in urgent talks with allies about what to do. The official was not authorized to publicly discuss sensitive military matters and spoke on condition of anonymity. In Madrid, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Monday that the U.S. is conferring with Turkish leaders about the infringement. The incident comes amid Turkish concerns over Russian airstrikes in Syria that have targeted some foreign-backed insurgents. Turkey and Russia also have conflicting positions on the Syrian regime, with Russia backing President Bashar Assad and Turkey insisting on his ouster. Davutoglu said during an interview with Haber Turk television that NATO-member Turkey would enforce its rules of engagement if its airspace is violated. Those rules call for the treatment of any element approaching the Turkish border from Syria as an enemy. "The Turkish Armed Forces have their orders," he said. "The necessary will be done even if it's a bird that violates Turkey's border ... Our rules of engagement are clear." A Foreign Ministry statement said Monday that a Russian warplane entered Turkey's airspace near the town of Yayladagi, in Hatay province on Saturday. Two F-16 jets intercepted the Russian aircraft and forced it to fly back into the Syrian airspace. Also Monday, Turkey's military said a MIG-29 jet had harassed two Turkish F-16s for five minutes and 40 seconds on Sunday by locking its radar onto them. In a brief statement, the military said the incident occurred while 10 F-16s were patrolling the Turkish-Syrian border. The military said it did not know which country the MIG-29 belonged to. Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded that Russia avoid future infringements, the Foreign Ministry statement said. It warned that Russia would be held "responsible for any undesired incident," that may occur. The same message was also relayed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov by telephone. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed solidarity with Turkey and said the situation would be taken up at a meeting later on Monday. "I call on Russia to fully respect NATO airspace and to avoid escalating tensions with the Alliance," Stoltenberg said. "I urge Russia to take the necessary steps to align its efforts with those of the international community in the fight against ISIL." Davutoglu told Haber Turk television that Russia assured Turkey that the airspace would not be violated again. "The information we got from Russia this morning is that it was an incident that occurred by mistake," he said. "They said they are respectful of Turkey's borders and that it would not happen again." Last week, Turkey issued a joint statement with its allies involved in the U.S.-backed campaign against the Islamic State group asking Moscow to cease attacks on the Syrian opposition and to focus on fighting the IS. On Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Russian airstrikes were unacceptable and a grave mistake that could alienate Moscow in the region. Russia says the airstrikes that began Wednesday are targeting the Islamic State group and al-Qaida's Syrian affiliate, but at least some of the strikes appear to have hit Western-backed rebel factions. ___
So we're now in a position where a Turkish AA battery could start WWIII by shooting down a Russian plane. Wonderful. This is why you don't go messing around in Syria when you know other people have agendas that do not align with ours. Regime change doesn't work. It only creates different problems down the road and sometimes the different problem is much worse than the one we faced originally. This assuming that you can actually do the regime change you're focused on, which was always iffy in Syria and laughable in Russia.
meh. as long as putin isn't planning on conquering the middle east I say let him fuck around in the sand box for a while. if it keeps us out of it who gives a shit?
Agreed. Putin won't feel any pressure until Russian troops start coming home in pieces. Just like Afghanistan back in the 80's.
I think it's a very different campaign he's likely to be fighting in Syria. Afghanistan has always blown chunks for an occupying force, even one with air superiority. My guess is the Russians are going to be using air strikes and spetznatz and very little else. No grunt conscripts on the ground dying en masse in ambushes like in Afghanistan. I could be wrong but Syria just doesn't seem to lend itself to that kind of action.
Thought I read someplace that there's a buildup of Russian ground forces in Syria. Amazing thing is, when the Americans do the exact same thing, its good. When the Russians do it, its bad. America props up a client state, its good. Russia does the same? Its bad. Feels like the good old daze of the cold war.
They came home in pieces after the Ukraine adventure and nothing change. Czars don't have to worry about this when the population believes the bullshit you are constantly selling.
I'm seeing that a Russian ship shot missiles at targets in Syria but they somehow landed in Iran. Yeah and these assholes didn't shoot down the Malaysian jet over Ukraine? They shot missiles that landed 2 fucking countries over. I'm sure between Putin and Iran they'll say it was America.
