QB's taken in the first round, instant success or not?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by tbruner12, Apr 4, 2018.

  1. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    10,771
    Likes Received:
    2,145
    If you have a crystal ball, and in it you see Mayfield going down in flames in NY, and Saquon putting up hall of fame numbers in Cleveland, would you change your mind?
     
    tbruner12 likes this.
  2. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2013
    Messages:
    5,834
    Likes Received:
    3,105
    The only difference in crystal balls is how mayfield rosen allen and Sam D will work out.

    No crystal ball needed with Barkley..its the safe call.. I get it

    But how many passes will Saquon throw for us for the next 10 years?? or are you counting on Teddy and McCown??? ..laughable
     
  3. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    half the starting QBs in the NFL were not 1st round picks. So statistically speaking you have as good of a chance to find a starting QB in the 1st round as you do the rest of the draft. The issue is most of the best ones were first rounders and first rounders have a much lower bust rate then lower round picks even though the QB bust rate in general sucks compared to other positions. It's the highest paid position for a reason. The stat breakdown by round is different when each round your chances go way down of finding a FQB. but if you take it as a split between 1st round and rest of the draft it's much more even. It's a catch-22 You have as good of a chance of finding a starter in the 1st then you do in another round, however you have a better chance of not drafting a bust in the 1st round. stats are funny like that
     
    JetBlue likes this.
  4. shasta01

    shasta01 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2018
    Messages:
    255
    Likes Received:
    85
    The myth of Saquan Barkley is highly over stated, at least it pertains to his value to a team. First off, the drop off between him and the next 4 Rb's is paper thin compared to the
    And more than Half the Starting QB's in the League suck, so what does that tell you? It tells me that there simply aren't enough good QB's in the league and that when you have the #3 pick in the Draft you need to move hell and high water to try and get one. This nonsense that the Jets should consider drafting Barkley because there's less chance of him busting, is just gutless in my opinion. You can draft all the RB's you want, but if you don't have a QB, it doesn't matter.
     
  5. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    I've never once been in favor of taking a non QB at 3 so you are barking up the wrong tree buddy.
     
  6. shasta01

    shasta01 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2018
    Messages:
    255
    Likes Received:
    85
    I was agreeing with you.
     
    SolidGoldBowles likes this.
  7. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    gotcha
     
  8. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    The bold is not true. The first round is almost twice as likely to produce a Pro Bowl QB as the 2nd round, and three times as likely as the 3rd. There is almost a 40% chance of finding a Pro Bowl QB in the 1st round, compared to a 20% chance in the 2nd, 15% in the 3rd, less then 10% chance in the 4th, and oddly a 10+% chance in the 6th.

    https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/teams-best-chance-finding-pro-bowl-quarterback-first-round/

    If you're looking for a FQB, the higher you pick, the greater your chance for success. Of course there's no guarantee, but there's no guarantee for ANY player/position. If a GM is too afraid to roll the dice on a QB, then he shouldn't be a GM.
     
  9. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    that's probowl, not starting QB. i said starting QB as about half the starting QBs in the NFL right now, are not 1st round picks. I said later in the same post you quoted that a majority of the better one's however came from the 1st round. Please read the entire post before jumping on me for the 1st sentence in the future please. I'm also still awaiting your response on that long post from like a week ago that you said you'd get back to when you had more time but haven't yet
     
  10. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    Every NFL team has a starting QB, even if they suck (Jets). If all a team is interested in is a "starting QB", they can pick one in any round. However, I think most teams want a QB who can potentially take them to the SB, hence qualifying it with those who have at least been named to a Pro Bowl is a pretty basic qualification for that.

    So I did in fact read your entire post, but my point still stands IMO.

    As to the long post I promised to get hack to, it's still on the To Do List.

    And if you have the time and want to get down to the statistical nitty gritty, there's this:

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016
     
    EnunwaFan likes this.
  11. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    yeah but to be fair, even being one of the top 32 people in the world at your position is much better then what most draft picks will ever be. not to mention a 3rd round pick back-up just beat a future HOFer in the superbowl. and he's not even a starter. I agree that the best QBs typically come from the 1st round with a few exceptions which was exactly what i said in my original post, so basically you agree with me
     
  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    I took the time to go back and look at your Allen breakdown where I said you were not as critical of Allen as you were of Mayfiled in your Mayfield analysis. Out of 49 total comments you made, I counted 31 Positive comments vs. 12 negative, and 6 that were neutral, Neutral comments are by definition "not negative" therefore out of 49 comments only 12 were negative.

    I believe anyone who watched that Wyoming vs. Iowa tape would see FAR more negative things to comment on. I'm not going to go back and detail every play as you did, but I will say this: almost every pass Allen makes, up until he gets picked in the 4th qtr., he stares down his intended receiver. And so even when he completes the pass, the defender is already breaking to the receiver and takes him down almost immediately. Also, when he was rushed out of the pocket he continued running away from the LOS and had to use his considerable arm strength to throw in opposition to his momentum, a sure cause of inaccuracy. And of course there were a number of balls thrown that were just poorly placed, including his picks. Yes, he has "WOW Factor" arm strength, and several times his receivers let him down, especially on the sure TD that was bobbled and then dropped, but if you're truly objective you have to see the issues he has to fix before he an even become a starter, let alone the HOF'er some here say he'll be. I stand by my assertion that you're much harder on Mayfield than Allen and that shows a bias.
     
  13. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    that's not anything? the plays are what they are. compare it to mayfield's numbers now. how many negative did i have on him? then look at similar plays. how many times did i give allen the benefit of the doubt? 0 how many times mayfield? 1 or 2 IIRC. you can't say i was harsher on one, fi you only looked at one. the fact that allen got 12 negative would show i'm not being biased, that number would be much lower. that's 25% of his throws as negative, and another 12.5% as nuetral. that's hardly biased in it's own right, but compare it to mayfield
     
    jets69 likes this.
  14. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    Okay, if you say so.

    I have to admit that I'm touchy on this aspect of drafting QBs because I'm so sick and tired of hearing the "justification" for passing over a good FQB candidate in favor of some BPA, "can't miss" player (usually a "D" guy). Like you can just pluck your FQB in any old round, but you just HAVE to grab that Safety or DL with the first pick! The fact is - as supported by the evidence I just posted, and other similar articles I've posted in the past - if you need a FQB, your absolutely best chance is the 1st round, and the higher up the better. And so maybe I'm quibbling with your POV, but I think there is an important difference between a FQB and a starting QB.
     
    tbruner12 and EnunwaFan like this.
  15. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    I'm not going to go and re-read the Mayfield post at this point. The main post about the Allen post you did isn't that you posted 12 negative comments, but that you ignored a lot of negative things he did in the "positive" comments you made. Go back and watch the tape again and see how many times where you said he did "good", he also did things like staring down his receiver. In fact, if we could ask that DB who made the first pick in the 4th qtr, I'd bet he'd say that he had been seeing Allen throw at his first read all game and simply jumped the throw. And I also bet that after that Allen's coached reminded him to start looking off more before throwing. He gets away with a lot of this because of his arm against college talent, but I doubt that will work in the pros.
     
  16. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    i mean you don't think that out of the 2 of us, you are being biased? Your whole response to 2 giant threads of mine and several long posts was that "you only has 25% bad plays for allen in that game so you must be biased" that seems short sighted, nothing specific, nothing in where you differ from my posts just a blanked number that you wanted to be higher for whatever reason. Also my POV was the same as yours, you are just being a bit argumentative. I said the same thing as you, I just played devils advocate a little because I like to look at both sides of the coin and not look at this with a biased opinion. I understand the argument for not needing a QB in the 1st round, I just don't agree with it. You lack to see any logic in an argument that differs from yours. Something can make sense, but not be the best thing. life isn't black and white, it's shades of grey. Even the term FQB is subjective. the ravens consider flacco a FQB, but he's not a QB I would have liked to see on the jets for a decade either. I consider him a decent starter, nothing more.

    regardless of that, I've never once advocated for us taking anything but a QB in the 1st round. I've openly said i'd be pissed if we didn't draft a QB with our 1st round pick, So i'm not sure what you are implying towards me. I do agree with BPA over need in general, but not when it's a FQB and you have a chance to land one. any other situation however, the BPA method has shown to work more then the "reach for need" method. That's when you use FA to fill your holes, which we tried to with cousins. Had we landed him, BPA would have been the pick IMO.

    On top of that, in no way to I advocate for allen, nor am i a fan of us taking him. I'm all in for rosen at this point as I don't believe darnold has any chance to be there at 3. The only time I would understand us taking allen is if darnold and rosen go 1 and 2 and it's between him an baker. I know we don't agree on this, but i don't think baker or allen are worth the 3 pick, but i feel allen is better then baker at least, but i'd much rather have rosen and if rosen is on the board and darnold is gone and allen and baker are there and we don't take rosen, I'd be a little pissed, but i'm still going to root for who we take.
     
    EnunwaFan likes this.
  17. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    3,825
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    SGB - I think you're taking my comments too personally. I too try to be open minded and look at both sides, and I acknowledged your efforts on both posts. I just think that you were more forgiving of Allen than Mayfield. I did go back and re-read the Mayfield post just now, and again am not going to dissect every comment you made, but you frequently modified your "praise" of Mayfield with "Easy throw" or "Wide open receiver" implying that his passes really weren't that good. And with these comments about your posts, I'm not trying to bash you, I'm offering my POV for your consideration to check for your own bias. If you don't - or won't see it, fine.

    I AM in full agreement with you about Rosen.:) I simply prefer Mayfield as Plan-B to Allen who I see as a 2-3 year project which I don't think the Jets can afford.

    I appreciate the time and effort you put into your posts, and often learn either from what you've posted or in doing the research into trying to show the other side.
     
  18. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,474
    Likes Received:
    1,952
    I wouldn't say i'm taking them personally when you say things like

    which was a baseless accusation and which i asked you to (and you said you would but haven't). You essentially said i'm being biased towards someone who I don't even want us to draft outside of a last resort if nothing goes out way in the top 2 picks

    then why make accusations if you can't take time to back them up?

    I did the same to allen when it was applicable. it's what the film shows. You want me to be biased and praise someone for making a basic throw to a wide open target? who sounds biased now

    that's not what that means at all. it was an easy throw, but he made it. again who is coming off biased?

    there is nothing to check, if you feel it's biased, prove it with examples. you refuse to be specific because there is nothing there

    i believe that is fair. we are all entitled to our opinion on things, but if i was a lesser man, I could say it's because you are being biased ;) (i hope you get the joke there and don't take it the wrong way)

    Which i'd be happy to read if you would actually give specifics about plays and what you felt was unfair towards or against anyone. I even further broke down a play for someone in the mayfield thread explaining the analysis further because they didn't see it the same way, so not like I haven't welcomed it before
     
  19. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2013
    Messages:
    5,834
    Likes Received:
    3,105
    Welcome to the TGG ! You are on the rational thinking side :)
     
  20. JohnnyJet1222

    JohnnyJet1222 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2018
    Messages:
    39
    Likes Received:
    65
    Just felt like I should jump into this discussion. Came into the 2017 college football season knowing the Jets needed a QB. Had no preconceived ideas on the talent except that there were three QB's of note, Rosen, Darnold and Allen. I figured the best way to do this was to watch all their games because then you could see the bad with the good. You can do wonders with a DVR. I started watching Mayfield after Ohio state so youtube was very valuable. I can't go through every game so i will give what my final opinions were. As the season progressed my feelings changed. I was disappointed with Darnold as I felt with all his WOW moments there were many WTF moments. Rosen impressed me with his mainly consistent games. Especially against USC. Mayfield who I didn't know of grew on me and I really liked his games. Allen who I had high hopes for was really a disappointment. So much so that I don't consider him a first round talent. I can't get into every game cause I watched so many but this is my feeling.
     

Share This Page