QB class of 2018 which so many of you are drooling over...Yes, I saw your thread

Discussion in 'Draft' started by JetsFan, May 6, 2017.

  1. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    JethroTull, I know you already started a thread about this, but I felt the topic deserved a little more meat on the bone. So here is my take on the subject.

    There is going to be a lot of competition getting a QB next year and there may not be that many choices at the top after next season. It seems every year a few top names have unproductive years or players get in trouble or both (Kelly), and they drop from a sure thing to a 6-7 round pick. Yet, there is always a Wentz or Trubisky who rises up and is the darling of the draft.

    It seems everyone on this board and in the media are projecting the Jets, Browns, 49ers/Redskins, Cardinals, and even possible the Rams may all be drafting a QB high next year. Yes Rams, Goff (54.7% comp, 5 TD, 7 INT, 5 Fumbles) had a bad year and like Hack he isn’t catching on fast, and if he sucks this year and the Rams are able, they may be forced to draft another QB.

    Early look at some of the 2018 sure thing QBs the media is talking about.

    Sam Darnold
    Positives: He smart, has the size, arm strength and is very accurate with 67% comp rate. Had 31 TDs to only 9 INTs with only 6 sacks. That’s right, only 6 sacks in 13 games.
    Negative: From USC and may not declare for draft in 2018. I hate USC QBs, but if this kid can improve even slightly this year, he would be an incredible prospect and top of his class.

    Mason Rudolph
    Positives: Has the size, arm and accurate. Great TD/INT ratio and YPA average.
    Negative: Doesn’t make many reads and runs the spread offense. Even in his fast paced offense, he still gives up 30 sacks a year.

    Luke Falk
    Positives: Good size and arm. Will be a 4 year starter and completes 70% of his throws. Over last two years he has a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Has averaged 4500 yards passing the last two years.
    Negatives: Purely pocket QB who has given up 66 sacks over the last two years. Many scouts don’t have him listed anywhere near this high.

    Jake Browning
    Positives: Will be a 3 year starter and had 43 TDs to 9 INTs last year. Good accuracy, average size and pocket QB.
    Negatives: Average size, purely pocket QB and averages 2 sacks a game.

    Josh Rosen
    Positives: Will be a 3 year starter and very athletic with live arm. Good pocket presence and only given up 28 sacks over first two years.
    Negatives: Coming back from injury, just under a 60% Comp rate and each year he has had a 2/1, TD/INT rate. In the pros 2/1 is a good rato, but in college it’s nothing to brag about.

    Lamar Jackson
    Positives: He can move good, put up a lot of rushing yards and is a two way threat to score. Produced 30 Tds and only 9 Ints passing with 21 TDs on the ground.
    Negatives: Relies on his legs too much, and needs to improve his completion percentage and accuracy or he won't succeed in the NFL. Over two season he has only averaging 55% comp rate. He has bad pocket presence and was sacked 46 times in last 13 games.

    Josh Allen
    Positives: Good size and arm. Scouts and the media think he will have a good season and improve.
    Negatives: Gives up way too many sacks (27). Needs to improve on accuracy and interceptions. Runs with the ball once for every two pass attempts, but only averages 3.7 yards per rush. In the NFL that would be two punishing on your QB for the small reward and chance of injury.

    Tanner Mangum
    Positives: Only a junior but started in 2015 and came in as starter for end of 2016. Completes 60% of passes
    Negatives: Gives up quite a few sack and don’t expect much from his legs. Out of 72 rushing attempts he has managed 3 TDs but a grand total of -74 yards.

    Steven Montez
    Positives: His BIG and strong and some media people think he may be poised for a big year.
    Negatives: Raw and best thing going for him is his size. When he hot he is good and very accurate, but when he is off, he is horrible. Unless he has a HUGE year, he should stay for another year at Colorado.

    My priority list, when looking at a QB prospect.
    1. I place accuracy as the top priority. If you can’t beat college DBs how can you expect to beat NFL DBs? If you are throwing 17 INTs in a span of 12 college games, against college level DBs, things are going to be rough for you in the pros.

    2. Do you need a great supporting cast? When you're drafted early, one thing is for sure, you will be going to a shitty team and there will be little help available. Many QBs like Watson, had their play raised by top college talent, while others like Trubisky has to carry their team. Just one reason Trubisky was the 1st QB drafted, while Watson was the 3rd QB off the board.

    3. Can you read defenses, and call audible? Many QBs are hand fed from the sideline and throw to their 1st or 2nd option. They need to be able to go through a progression and hit the 3rd or 4th option.

    4. Are you a pocket QB? I like a QB that can scramble when needed, but the safest play is in the pocket. Too many QBs rely on their legs and never develop the pocket awareness or get hurt way too often running. Look no further than RG3 or Kaepernick, both were once considered rising starts in the NFL.

    5. Do you have experience in a pro-style offense? Did you take any hikes from under center? This is a no for most college QBs since the spread offense is the choice at almost every college. More importantly, can you learn a pro offense. In most cases I guess we won’t know until after you’re drafted.

    *There are a lot of QB still out there not on my list and there will always be your one year wonders that pop up, but if you like another QB, reply below and give a quick note why. If you want to bash my post, go ahead, at least it means you read it.

    On a side note; Sportingnews has listed their first mock draft for 2018 and the Jets would finally get their QB of the future.
    1. New York Jets: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
    “Projected to the be the top quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold’s Rose Bowl performance against Penn State has already won over NFL decision makers. As long as he continues to improve, he’ll be the first quarterback selected.”

    Walterfootball.com has it that the Los Angeles Rams draft Sam Darnold #1 overall. I did mention this happening if Goff sucks this year. CBSsports was the Browns drafting Darnold #1. Can we start the “Suck for Sam” chants yet?

    Seriously, I would rather have Hack come out this year and light it up and prove me wrong, so we don’t have to waste next year’s draft pick on a QB or worse, trade away a couple first round pick to move up and get him. Thanks for reading this far.
     
    #1 JetsFan, May 6, 2017
    Last edited: May 6, 2017
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  2. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    It wont be a wasted draft pick,lets get there and find out

    Hack is a complete enigma

    SUCK FOR SAM!!!!
     
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  3. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    Right now Sam is looking like an Andrew Luck, but there is still a season to play and he is from USC, which is a negative to many. I think we will win 5-6 games and to get him at #1 would cost us an RG3 type of deal, especially with so many other teams who would want him. Better to hope we either go 1-15 or Hack becomes Superman.
     
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  4. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    First, Macc and Bowles aren't going to "Suck For Sam". They may still wind up losing badly, but in all probability they'll have to win no more than 2 games to even be in the running for the #1 pick. I don't see that happening.

    Second, all of your assessments are - at best - projections. And yes you acknowledged this to begin with, but it bears repeating. So much can happen in the year between now and when they're eligible for the draft that there's no way to predict who, if any of them, would be the best fit for the Jets. And since some of them would be underclassmen, they could even skip declaring and stay in school if the team with #1 pick is a team they don't want to play for.

    This is why they Jets should've drafted a QB this year. Yes, it would've been a gamble, but EVERY pick is a gamble, and counting on finding your FQB next year or the year after is an even bigger gamble. I know this opinion is in the minority, and obviously wasn't held by Macc & Co., but I still think they should've taken a chance on the most important position on the team. Even if Adams lives up to his billing - and I believe he probably will - he won't affect the team as much as a good QB. I think the Bears were crazy to give up what they did to move up to get Trubisky, but it shows how important a QB is, and the Jets didn't even have to move up (assuming they didn't want Trubisky), to get one of the top QBs. Had they taken Mahomes (my choice), or Watson at 6, they still would've been able to get Mayes with their 2nd pick to shore up the Safety position since everyone says he's close to Adams in ability.

    And I understand the point that we need to see Hack actually play, and if he works out, GREAT!. But what if he doesn't? Then we're playing QB Roulette with all the pitfalls I noted above. At this point, I have to hope that Hack somehow finds himself and becomes what the Jets need, because otherwise, not only will this year be a long one, but so to will be the foreseeable future.
     
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  5. FJF

    FJF Well-Known Member

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    I know there is a thread on this but i want everyone to look at me so i will make another thread on this
     
  6. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

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    That's why the Jets drafted Hack. If he doesn't there will be numerous QBs in FA and in the draft. More than likely the record won't be great and they will be in position to draft a QB. They have been in position to draft one in the past couple of years, but didn't find a QB worth the pick.
     
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  7. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    Look at me, I’m a fucktard and have no constructed criticism, so I just spew shit at everyone. Dude, it you ever had an original thought you would be dangerous to yourself.
     
  8. joe

    joe Well-Known Member

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    Please explain 'your take on the subject' esp. the parts in bold.

    Since you're apparently very familiar with USC football in general and USC QBs in particular, I'm curious as to your take on the spring game: did you think Helton scaled-down too much of the offense (because of injuries leading up to the game)?

    And while every player (including Darnold) seeks improvement every year what facets of Darnold's game in particular do you think he needs to improve on heading into the 2017 season?

    Thx.
     
  9. FJF

    FJF Well-Known Member

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    i can't take anyone who uses fucktard seriously. sorry.
     
  10. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    First I'm not overly familiar with USC football, and except for Palmer their QBs they produce have been over-hyped and lacked any sustained production in the NFL. I like to look at the QB mechanics, the speed of the ball, how tight the spiral is, does the ball float, and pocket awareness. Something that concern me is what does the QB do when the play breaks down; throw the ball away, tuck it and run, or keep looking down field?

    My humble and personal take on the tape for Darnold:
    He makes many plays out of nothing and the fact he only has 6 sacks all year is astonishing..
    Times when there were fumbles or mishandling of the ball and he picked it up and completed a pass.
    He is elusive for a big guy, hard to bring down.
    Not real fast on his feet, but has pocket awareness and is shifty.
    He has a strong arm and can make longer throws and cross body throws without setting his feet.
    He has a knack for extending plays and is more likely to look down field on broken plays than he is to run with it
    Darnold has the ability to make his progressions, which many college QBs aren't required to do.

    Sometimes he throw a nice looking ball, but many times you can see it wobbling a bit, and that is in low wind, sunny California. What would if look like in New York, Buffalo, or New England in last December weather? He never played under center and we know it’s a 50/50 shot if spread QBs can make the switch.

    I think Darnold needs to work on his footwork and tightness of his throws. Biggest thing which isn't his fault, is the lack of any pro style offense experience at any level.

    I went back and watched Darnold's High School tapes out there and he was pretty impressive even when he was a junior in High School. He actually ran quite a bit in High School. I was hoping to see some plays from under center at least at that level, but nope, he has always been a spread guy.

    *On a side note I think Mason Rudolph throws a prettier ball, especially a long ball and sets his feet when making throws.. He doesn't have the same quality of receivers as Darnold, but I feel he’s the guy that could unseat Darnold as the top QB in 2018 draft. I know many of you will think I’m crazy, but I do like both guys the best in this class, but wouldn’t be surprised if a one year wonder pops up somewhere and steals the show again.
     
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  11. Carpetbagger

    Carpetbagger Well-Known Member

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    It is too early to tell, so we cannot bank on any of this happening.

    My top two priorities for quarterbacks are:

    1. Elite level ball placement. The windows in the NFL to throw the ball are really small and the qbs that do not have good ball placement throw ints in the NFL that were not ints in college football (see Mark Sanchez).

    2. Pocket presence. Do you need a completely clean pocket to make a good throw? In the NFL, there is almost never a clean pocket. If iteams do not have an elite pass rusher, that at least have players that can push and disrupt the pocket. Also, blitz packages in the NFL are extremely complex and qbs need to be able to quickly read the defense, shift the line, etc. A lot of qbs cannot do this and their career suffers because of this (see Geno Smith).

    Of all the qbs listed above the only one I say fits both of those buckets is Darnold. Josh Allen is way too raw and those INTS really worry me. With Rosen, I worry about if he has elite level ball placement.

    Some things to also remember about Darnold:

    1. He's only played a dozen or so games, so we do not know if he can consistently play at that level.

    2. We would have to go 2-14 in order to get the first pick. This team is capable of doing it, but we didn't even suck that much last year.
     
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  12. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    I like Josh Allen as a prospect, but he relies on his legs and in the NFL where the defenders are bigger, run faster, and hit harder, he may be another RG3, and that's not a good thing. I want him to show more pocket ability this year.
     
  13. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Plus 1000

    Nice analysis on Darnold...I ve seen him throw some beautiful long passes right on target

    Guy is on the level of an A Luck eg immediate starter imo Something this team, with a new OL ,desperately needs Receivers are all in place now

    Suck for Sam!

    We need to shit the bed in 2017...Mcclown Sackenberg the other back up QB Petty will help..brutal schedule will help

    No guarantees but the Jets are poised to get a legit QB in 18 ...we cant blow it like Idzik did

    What will Bowles do ? Try to win games but end up coaching a blow up

    jmho
     
    #13 NYJetsO12, May 7, 2017
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
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  14. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    IMO this is your best post ever on this board if all of the info is accurate. The one thing I disagree with is the way you talk about QBs giving up sacks like it's all their fault. Yes, can contribute to the number of sacks by holding the ball too long, but imo most often sacks are a result of poor OL talent, poor play, or poor play calling/being too predictable.
     
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  15. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    A QB can cause sacks in many ways; holding the ball too long, not utilizing the pocket/stepping up, not reading pressure/blitz, or trying to scramble too much and leaving the safety of the pocket. It is harder to protect a QB if you don't know where he is or is going. If you are averaging 2-3 sacks a game in college, its too much. In Lamar Jackson's case it was 3-4 sacks a game.
     
  16. Mauldinthebeast

    Mauldinthebeast Well-Known Member

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    I know Bowles and everyone are going to try to win and every coach would do the same, but if there were ever a year to tank its this year. No they're not going to instruct the players to throw in the towel every game, but they shouldn't be starting anyone under 25 either. That way we are "trying to win" but don't have the talent or leadership to put together anything more than 4 wins as the young players gain experience.

    If it were up to me, Decker, Pryor, Skrine, Forte, and Harris would be shopped from now until the trading deadline to some team thats going to make a run for it and needs another piece or two. Trading away those players will help with our suck factor and will net us even more picks for next year. Because to me, winning an extra game or two is just pointless when we're about to have the kind of season were having.
     
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  17. JethroTull

    JethroTull Active Member

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    Great point. This was my biggest knock on drafting Hackenberg, and why I feel confident he won't materialize in the NFL.
     
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  18. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    For me there are 3 really talented QBs and then the rest... some of the rest have a chance but nowhere close to the talents of Rosen, Darnold and Allen.

    Rosen is a prototypical pro style pocket passer. He has the size and talents to be a solid NFL QB day 1. His injury doesn't bother me if he shows what he is capable of this season. He has the best footwork, deep ball and size at the position coming out.

    Darnold has the talents to be really special. Andrew Luck type special coming out. He just needs to prove he can do it consistently again next year and he will go 1 overall without a doubt.

    Allen is my favourite prospect because he has it all. Size, speed, arm strength and is a gamer. He just needs to work on his accuracy and reads. If he figures that out he will be Aaron Rodgers 2.0
     
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  19. SettlerDawg

    SettlerDawg Well-Known Member

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    I think it's Darnold, Falk (70% accuracy 2 years straight), Allen and the rest. What's intriguing about this year is that there are so many QB's with potential and chances are that a few will take another step forward and become franchise QB material. The top teams in the Pac 12 alone have a lot of nice prospects.
     
  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    I saw Browning on a couple occasions and I was not impressed. He seems overrated and he has a pop gun arm.

    I wanna see another year from Falk before I make any strong commitment either way. Same thing with Rosen but I am more positive with him. Darnold is obviously my favorite of the bunch. I will probably never see a Wyoming football game in my life so I'm not going to take a stance on Allen.

    Rudolph looked amazing in the Alamo Bowl against a Colorado defense with some stud corners that made Falk look silly a couple weeks earlier, even Browning 9-24 against that D before Rudolph looked all world against them
     
    #20 BrowningNagle, May 18, 2017
    Last edited: May 18, 2017

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