You don't have to sell me on Mahomes; I was on that train back when online projections had him as a 4th/5th round pick. I would take him 1st overall over anyone in this draft. That said; I challenge the bold. Who are those "a lot" scouts? Do you know them personally? Or are we really talking about guys on internet blogs, message boards and/or youtube? Now I can see a scout preferring his GM to pass on Allen because of his negatives but to say he's not a 1st round pick in this class is borderline comical. I have to question the talent evaluation of any scout who does not give him a 1st round grade. It can be argued very easily that he is by far the most "talented" QB in the draft. We ALL know he is going in the 1st and probably high in the first; I would venture to think "many" scouts know this as well. If the first round was strictly about production or prototypical size, Darron Lee would not have been draft 20th overall and a guy like Logan Thomas would have gone top 10 respectively.
I don't disagree that he will go in the first and obviously there are a ton of players who go in the first round that don't necessarily deserve to. A lot of GM's and HC's think they can fix players who have a lot of raw potential or size and that to me would be the reason Allen would be selected in the first. I mispoke when I said a lot of scouts - because that's hard to say when I don't actually know the scouts but I try to read up and listen to draft podcasts and have read/heard rumblings of Allen being on both ends of the spectrum (first round pick/top 10/not a 1st round pick). Also, I'm not saying he won't be a first round pick, I think he will be, what I'm personally saying is I wouldn't touch him in the first round on my own personal evaluations of him. My original post clearly says "But he'll likely go 1st round based on his prototypical QB size".
I just to make sure the distinction is made for those posters who do not follow college football and the draft process as closely as we do. I think the narrative that Allen is a Day 3 pick that some idiot GM will draft in the top 10 is false and irresponsible on some level. A more accurate description IMO is that Allen is a higher risk higher reward type. He scares the crap out of me too; all the QBs at the top of this class do too for different reasons. I think Mayfield may be the riskiest because he has yellow/red flags on and off the field. As a GM it all comes down to what you value and are scared off the most.
Allen is probably the biggest boom or bust QB in quite sometime. I would even say probably in the last 10+ years ... Who in the last decade was more boom or bust then Allen?
Hyperbole much? Boom yes but I don't think his bust potential is as high as some may want you to believe. I don't even think he has the biggest bust potential in this class of 1st round QBs; like I said I think that distinction goes to Mayfield . Mayfield, Lynch, Bortles, Locker, Gabbert, PONDER (personal favorite), TEBOW; all have or had bigger bust potential IMO. Worst case scenario, I think he's turns out like Bortles. I don't consider Bortles a bust. There are guys on the aforementioned list who are out of the league or should be shortly; I don't think Allen will be out of the league in a few years.
Tebow actually is a legitimate comparison. I never viewed Ponder as a boom or bust QB. He was also I believe broken goods in college; he had a separated shoulder in college and wasn't nearly the same player when he got to the NFL. For Allen, the boom is simply his skill-sets ... he has the best skill-sets in this draft hands down, but the bust is simply tied to his production and fundamentals. So many things that scare me about Allen, then you put that damn Bowl game and its just insane how good he was. He's either really good and looks like a top pick, or he looks like he's undraftable. Tebow is legit though ... but I feel there's so many things about Allen we aren't sure of ... Mayfield fits due to off the field characters. But is he more boom / bust then Manziel?
I need to see the undraftable tape; please point me to it. Manziel's downfall was off the field. On the field I felt he belonged. My issues with Mayfield start on the field and the off the field just puts it over the top for me.
If you can find the Oregon game, check it out ... that was one game I remembering watching, he was pretty bad. If I can get the link, I'll post it but draftbreakdown.com is gone for good ... I still don't know what to make of Mayfield, I just hope someone takes him before the Jets get their hands on him.
I've seen all the games. From what I remember his team got complete overmatched. I'll watch it again to see if I see someone that is undraftable.
