I know some of you aren't into advanced stats, but Pro Football Focus does this yearly series that's really awesome. They break down their grades for each quarterback in terms of every situation you can think of; under pressure, vs. the blitz, down, pass depth, etc. Here's the complete series from 2013: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/03/qbs-in-focus/ The 2014 one is still ongoing but they've uploaded enough already to incite discussion. I'll update the thread as more are added. I thought this would be a cool way to complement the Geno vs Fitzpatrick debate, since there's no new information coming out of the competition until late July and August. To save you all the clicks and reading I put our QBs' ranks in bullet points under the articles. I should note that I'm just going to objectively present these stats, though I currently fall into the "start Geno" camp. Under Pressure: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/20/qbs-in-focus-under-pressure/ Geno Smith was pressured on 37.7% of dropbacks, Fitzpatrick was pressured on 36.5%; 9th and 11th in the NFL respectively. Geno Smith was the 4th worst QB in the league when pressured and league average when not pressured. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the 13th ranked QB when pressured and 12th ranked when not. Against the Blitz: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/21/qbs-in-focus-against-the-blitz/ Geno was blitzed on 32.7% of dropbacks, Fitzpatrick was blitzed on 32%; 9th and 12th highest respectively. Geno was the 14th best QB in the NFL when facing a blitz and the 3rd worst when facing a normal rush (wow). Fitzpatrick was the 21st ranked QB when being blitzed and the 9th best vs normal rush. Short Passing: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/27/qbs-in-focus-short-passing-2/ Geno was the 12th ranked QB on passes traveling 1-10 yards in the air (vastly improved from 2nd worst in 2013). Fitzpatrick was the 7th ranked passer on 1-10 yard throws. Intermediate Passing: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/28/qbs-in-focus-intermediate-passing-2/ Geno and Fitzpatrick were both approximately league average on passes that traveled 11-20 yards. Geno was 16th and Fitzpatrick was 18th. Deep Passing: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/ Geno Smith was the 3rd worst on 21-30 yard passes (surprising, because this was his best range in 2013. He was the 9th ranked passer on such throws in his rookie year). He was, however, ranked 10th best on 31-40 yard throws and did not throw enough 40+ yard passes to qualify in this range. For everyone looking to kill the "Fitzpatrick can't throw deep" narrative: Fitzpatrick was the 15th best QB on 21-30 yard passes, 5th best quarterback on 31-40 yard throws (!!!) and also did not throw enough 40+ yard passes to qualify.
Geno being one of the worst quarterbacks against a normal rush is no surprise. Teams would blitz him early on in the game and then he would feel the rush the rest of the game. This is all attributed to his terrible pocket and field awareness. He was terrible down the field because of the bad awareness. He would feel the rush too early and rush to get rid of the ball or make a bad pass. I think all of His problems are attributed to this because he has the athleticism, arm talent and accuracy to make it in this league. Some guys can feel the rush and adjust or move in the pocket accordingly and some cannot. We'll see whether he can or not this season as its really a make or break year for him.
I agree that his ineffectiveness at feeling the rush contributed to his struggles when not blitzed, but I think it had more to do with the amount of people that dropped in coverage. It's pretty well established here that Geno has had his struggles at interpreting complex coverages on the fly, as you'd expect any young QB to. When the defense blitzes, they usually leave the rest of their personnel in simple 1 on 1 man coverage with a deep safety over the top, which is pretty easy to decipher. However, when they don't blitz they can do any number of things with the 7 to 8 men they drop in coverage. I think the contrasts in simplicity of coverage schemes might've accounted for his decent showing vs. the blitz and poor performance against a standard rush, though your point is also valid.
Very very good post. Thank you. I can't wait to see how a certain someone who had a meltdown when we tried to discuss Fitz vs. Geno responds to this. I can probably tell you how: "those are just fantasy numbers". I feel like the fact that Bowles cam out and said this will be a competition has cooled the Fitz/Geno debate a bit, but as someone who likes Fitz as a stopgap QB and thinks we can make the playoffs with him, this reaffirms my opinion for me. So again, thank you for this post.
Well it's a combination of what you said and what I said really. If they rush 4 and you feel the pressure of 6 or 7 when really there's 8 in coverage you're going to end up forcing throws right into the defenders. His pre snap reads need to get better for sure as it will at least help him realize how many are rushing and how many are covering. It's vital.
thats so weird, I'm struggling to make sense of that because you'd think it would be the opposite. apparently hes learned to spot a blitz and adapt, but when players are lined up normally…what? okay so I guess any blitz keeps at least one or two defenders away from defending any targets in the passing game, and Smith can at least attempt to escape pressure and make an easier pass. this in contrast to a base defense where theres still SOME pressure and more in the way of defenders being able to prevent him from completing a pass. yeah, that makes sense...
This sounds like I'm calling him dumb (I'm not) but maybe he is better with less time because he doesn't have the opportunity to overthink?
I obviously only included and analyzed the ones for the 2 Jets QBs but if you click the links they give the full numbers for every eligible quarterback. Aaron Rodgers just dominated everything.
the bold is by far his biggest problem, imo ... most of his other issues snowball from there when defenses showed blitz then dropped into coverage, he got flustered ... but brian winters was even worse than geno in those situations
when blitzed, you find the hot read.....usually an outlet option, or you run. it's less decision making, which is what i think you are getting at, and i agree. one other thing i'd note regarding blitz vs normal rush........teams show blitz and then normal rush all the time (ie Rex), especially with QB's who struggle with reads and progressions to begin with.
I can attribute multiple turnovers to Winters alone including the Green Bay pick to Sudfeld. It's crazy how our offense seemed to just run much better once Aboushi stepped in. If brick and Giacomini hold up, Geno has no excuses given our WR talent.
Yet, considering these stats and the fact Fitz knows this offense and Geno has to learn from scratch, our shitty OC has named Geno the starter barring injury.
I understand there's a group of people here who need to bitch in order to be happy, but at least attempt to stay current. You should probably check out what Bowles said.
A stone statue that was basically on his way out of the league Versus A young kid that has mobility; has played a rookie season with some of the worst wide receivers (name one other than Kerley...Go! Holmes had 20 receptions haha) 8-8 record; and a 2nd year season with a bottom tier offensive line 4-12 record (and a bunch of games that came down to last possession). Albeit made boneheaded plays from an offense that ran 90% out of shotgun, passed the ball on every other down and ran every run from shotgun too. Ground n' pound, yeah right! Kid threw the ball 30+ times a game behind one of the shittiest offenses in the league. Nice QB management lol
Good Post Last year before injury Fitz had a QBR of ninth in NFL and Geno ended up twentyninth. Fitz was on pace to having a really good year. Both QBs have an arsenal to throw to this year, arguably one of the best Jets teams put together in many years Intangibles= Fitz went to Harvard; Geno you can certainly lose on dumb
Fitzpatrick is garbage on his way out of the league. He won't start once behind center, thankfully. Geno easily beats fitz in open competition.
