Paxton Lynch - QB - Memphis

Discussion in 'Draft' started by Big Cat, Oct 26, 2015.

  1. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    Like many of you, I'm very pessimistic about the crop of QBs in this year's draft. This is concerning considering the fact that we're in desperate need of a positional upgrade. Fitzpatrick isn't the long term answer, probably not even for next year. Geno is likely gone and while Petty has tools, odds are that he won't pan out.

    Naturally it follows that we'll look to the draft to solve this dilemma, since the QB free agent market gets thinner every year as demand grows. Enter the 2016 QB class. It was supposed to be headlined by Jared Goff, Christian Hackenberg, Cardale Jones and Connor Cook, all "potential first round talents". Goff is as advertised and I anticipate him being a top 5 pick, out of our reach and making some other team happy for a decade barring a trade up. But I wouldn't touch Jones (benched) or Hack (bad) with a ten foot pole, even in the 2nd round. Cook is a meh day 2 prospect, but I don't see the accuracy or consistency to be a starter in the NFL.

    Given the collapse at the top of the class, many are denouncing this year as a possible repeat of 2013, myself included. However, in recent weeks 2 names have skyrocketed up draft boards, in a similar fashion to Derek Carr's 2014 ascension: Paxton Lynch and Carson Wentz.

    Wentz is an FCS quarterback and from briefly watching him, I didn't see the fascination with him other than his explosive running ability. But a half hour of watching Paxton Lynch turned him into far and away my QB2 and I think he could be something special. He's 6' 7' and 245 pounds and he's an absolute freak of nature. Usually when you get a guy this big he's essentially a statue, ala Glennon or Mettenberger, or at best "functionally mobile" like Flacco or Roethlisberger. This guy was a running back in high school and he can move. I'd compare his athleticism to Andrew Luck's in a body that's 3 inches taller. I can't say I've ever seen a "too big" QB move like him.

    His size allows him to throw the ball in a collapsing pocket and step into throws even while getting hit. His speed allows him to elude the rush and get outside the pocket, even taking off to run frequently. He's also a good thrower on the run, which is a good pairing with his size and athleticism. Then his arm talent is off the charts. He has the arm you'd figure from someone who's 6'7" 245: an absolute rifle. But the thing I love the most about his arm is that he's willing to throw with touch. Most times when you see a QB with a super strong arm, they become reluctant to throw anything but a fastball (Kaepernick, Glennon, Met, Flacco) which restricts their ability to throw the ball over second level defenders. Paxton has no problem dropping the ball over the reach of a linebacker but underneath a safety.

    He's also one of the more accurate college passers I've seen, with good ball placement on downfield throws and allways putting the ball in a place for his receiver to gain extra yards on short throws. If you read my posts from the last couple drafts, you know that pocket maneuverability is my favorite trait for scouting QBs, because it entails many other traits, like feel for the rush, footwork, awareness, ability to extend plays, etc. Lynch makes some good subtle pocket movements to buy his receivers time to get open downfield for him, and I've hardly seen him get blindsided. He has good pocket command and awareness and the athleticism to get away from the rush.

    If there's one thing I'd like to see more from him, it's scrambling with his eyes downfield ready to throw instead of scrambling to run so much. He's a great athlete for college, but I'm not sure it'll translate directly to the pros, so I want to see him be less 1 read and tuck, though he does go through progressions at times.

    This isn't his best game but there are a couple plays from it that I wanted to highlight to convey my points (you can watch some other games on the site if you want):

    http://draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-usf-2015/

    0:50: drops back to pass (first read is covered), immediate pressure. Steps up through a collapsing pocket and meets another defender. Runs right to escape and fires a strike 20 yards downfield while on the run. Great pocket movement, great athleticism to get away and great arm strength on the throw.

    1:11: drops shoulder and looks to the middle of the field to sell QB draw then delivers perfect touch and ball placement on a sideline go route. I love that he made such a good throw despite being late to pick up his target with his eyes and feet, simulating a progression based throw (even though it's not a true progression).

    2:00: like I said, most strong armed QBs don't have the ability to throw with touch. This is a great touch/anticipatory throw. He sees that his receiver is breaking free behind the linebacker, and knows that with the speed mismatch the only way the ball isn't completed is if he throws it on a line so the backer can get his hands on it. Good finesse red zone throw, which you don't see much of in college.

    2:42: another really good job of manipulating the pocket. Steps through closing defenders on both sides and rips an accurate sideline strike.

    3:38: here's an NFL play. Play action fake, looks left, sees it's covered, resets middle and rips a strike right by the defenders face. So much action and processing in a second and a half.

    3:57: figured I'd show you one of his running plays to show you the bizzare athleticism he has for a massive QB

    4:15: everything about this play, really. He starts looking left, shows good footwork in the pocket, then comes off the read and feels the rush while still looking downfield (huge) shows the poise to maneuver around the guy and the patience to keep his eyes downfield. He shows command by directing traffic downfield, then when it looks like he's just throwing the ball away he's actually unleashing a touch pass over a defender on the sideline. The patience (and awareness/pocket work) was awesome.

    4:48: touch

    5:02: comes off his first read on the left all the way over to the right sideline and rips a dart to the sideline while under heavy durress.

    5:42: this is just a WTF play. Starts looking left, immediately diagnoses that it's covered and comes off of it (good, quick processing) then shows athleticism by running around the rush and then throwing from a ridiculous body angle while getting hit and getting a ball into a window that shouldn't even be possible. It might be a completion with an NFL receiver (Marshall?) which is just ridiculous.

    7:03: more of the same.


    I'll stop there and let you guys watch a little on your own if you so desire. But I really do like this kid. For me, he's far and away the 2nd QB and the only one I'd even touch other than Goff. You wanna talk "physical tools", how about 6'7" 245 with arm talent, athleticism and good awareness and processing abilities? This is exactly the type of guy I want towards the end of the first round (mid 20s) where we should be picking. Just giving you guys a en exciting, rising QB to keep you eye on for the rest of the season, given how dismal the rest of the class is.

    Let me know what you think.
     
    #1 Big Cat, Oct 26, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2015
    almbleamal and TNJet like this.
  2. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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  3. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    @JStokes you've been the most vocal poster I've seen about not liking this QB class, but I've generally been in agreement with you about prospects in the past. What do you think of this kid? He's not an elite top of the first round talent but I like him a lot as a mid-first rounder.
     
  4. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    I started to watch some of the videos but haven't been through them all. I'll take a look.

    I've only seen Goff a few times and while he looks the part, I'm not yet wowed by him. Cook I've seen a ton and while I want to love the guy, he's just way too inconsistent, way too erratic for my tastes. I see him missing the easiest throws in the world to wide open guys--throws that Marcus or Teddy or Carr never missed in college. I swear, watching those three, it looked like it was effortless completing passes 20-25 yards downfield as if they were just handing off to guys. Someone is going to wildly overdraft him. I've seen the freshmen from UCLA twice so far and while he didn't have great games--he looks like he's got tremendous skills but I'll wait till next year to really start watching him.

    Hack is just brutal--want nothing to do with him. And Cardale--with all the talent in the world--isn't even the best QB on that team.

    _
     
  5. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    I definitely agree on Cook, he looks the part of a first round pick with his size and demanor, but his play is so erratic. I'm not sure accuracy is something you can teach which is a major problem, and he's also not good under pressure. Hack is a mess, I saw a scout yesterday say he'd still take him in the first round which is just garbage. I don't know what they're looking at.

    Goff I think is special. He's got it all. Lynch is starting to wow me as well, not as much as Mariota or the top of the round guys did but he's definitely in first round conversation. Someone started a thread on the western Kentucky kid the other day and he looks like he could be a hidden gem too, maybe a day 2 guy.

    One thing I think is for sure is that if this class is going to be salvaged, it's by late risers like Lynch and Doughty , rather than the big names like Cook, Hack and Jones.
     
  6. TNJet

    TNJet Well-Known Member

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    Every year we should draft a QB until we find the right one. You cant win the lottery if you don't play.
     
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  7. BleedGreen89

    BleedGreen89 Well-Known Member

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    Connor Cook is going to be very good and unlike Goff and this Paxton kid, can be had where we're likely going to be picking

    I like this class a lot...Goff, Cook, Kessler, Lynch and Cardale all could be great depending on where they land and how well they're coached
     
  8. FJF

    FJF Well-Known Member

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    judging by the posts on this board this week, every player in the draft will be available when we pick
     
  9. TouchyFeely

    TouchyFeely Well-Known Member

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    I think Jacoby Brissett is a sleeper too. Big guy, escape pressure well. Seems like pass rushers bounce off of him. 3 TD effort against Clemson. High 50s% with his receivers droping a bunch. Plus athleticism as well. Looking like a solid R2-3 pick to develop.
     
  10. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

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    Accuracy is inconsistent, but Cook against the blitz is very good. Last season, I think they said he had a 16:1 TD ratio when he was blitzed.
     
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  11. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    I think I more so meant that his accuracy is inconsistent under pressure. He'll take a hit to the chest while firing a strike 30 yards downfield but then the next time sail the ball over everyone's head. Again, when he's on his game he's a first round pick, but the #1 issue is consistency.
     
  12. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the inconsistencies are the reason he's not an elite QB prospect. Even with the inconsistencies he's a first round pick.

    If you have a QB coach that can identify those flaws and fix them, you got yourself a very good QB. That in itself is a tough task.
     
  13. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    I'm starting to think Paxton will be long gone by our pick. He's looking like a franchise QB.
     
  14. JCLA

    JCLA Active Member

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    His receivers aren't very good, which doesn't help him at all but he is a pretty good QB. His deep ball accuracy needs work, maybe in NFL could be better with faster receivers but he tends to overthrow them a lot. He has the arm to make all the throws though. However, I liked him a lot more last year than I have this year.
     
  15. KurtTheJetsFan

    KurtTheJetsFan Well-Known Member

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    I do like Lynch..quite a bit actually. He has really great feet & is so tall in the pocket.He also has very good pocket awareness & is a lethal PHYSICAL running threat. This kid is tough as bricks.He makes all the throws w/ so-so mechanics.His motion is reminiscent of Ryan Leaf(I mean that in a good way.)I do think he has slower than average release on longer throws...but he's so athletic & hard to take down it won't matter much. He doesn't throw w/ the same precision as a Andrew Luck.He'd do better in a cold weather AFC team.That said he is a legit candidate to go 1st overall at this point.
     
  16. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I definitely need to see more of him. I saw the Houston game Saturday night but was not impressed by him, but the game plan didn't help him any.
     
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I'll say right off the bat that I've only seen him play once, but was not really impressed with him vs Houston on Saturday night. It was just one game, and the Memphis game plan didn't help him at all, but I didn't see the speed running the ball that one of the announcers spoke of, and I certainly didn't see anything "lethal" about his running (except maybe to him). He looked neither fast, nor elusive. He'll get killed in the NFL even if he is taller and bigger framed than Manziel. Evidently, if Lynch is as good as you and others say (and I'm not saying that he isn't) Memphis' CS are morons. When Houston started coming back, they stayed conservative. If Lynch is all you say he is, they should have become more aggressive and turned him loose.
     
  18. The Uniform Bomber

    The Uniform Bomber Spivey's Agent

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  19. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    this kid looks awesome to me. I think he's the best of this class
     

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