If I wasn't as confident as I am in Melancon, or this team's ability to buy great arms in the draft, then maybe I'd want Joba to be in the bullpen permanently to replace Mariano. But Joba has the ability to be a dominant #1 for the next 15 years. Melancon I believe is the future closer of this team, and Sanchez is a guy who's better off in the bullpen than Joba, and can be atleast a good setup man.
Mariano was not a good starter, and didn't have a great repertoire of pitches. Joba was considered a top 10 talent in the draft due to his ability as a starter, and he has four pitches, all of which should be ATLEAST "plus" pitches. It's not even close to the same thing.
Exactly. Mo was a failed starter when he went to the pen. And Mo was never projected to be anything special when he went there. Of course, we know what happened. He learned a cutter and turned out to be probably the most pleasant bullpen surprise of all time. If Joba tries to start for two or three seasons and fails... by all means, put him in the pen and let him go nuts. But this kid has a chance to be something really, really special. It'd be a gigantic mistake to not see what he can do with it.
Mariano in the minors pitched 81 games and started 67. He had a 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and averaged 7.67 K/9. Now I agree Mariano didn't have as many pitches as Joba does now, but only having to throw 1-2 pitches in a relief appearance rather than 3-4 pitches as a starter is a big difference. We haven't seen Joba do that yet. For all we know he could go 10-10 with a 4.50 this season which nearly wouldn't be as important as 60+ games with an ERA in the mid 2's(if even that high). I would like to see what he could do in the rotation as well. However I feel if we move him into the rotation we have to be willing to accept that the Yanks possibly won't make the playoffs this year, and I don't neccesarily want to do that.
1.10 WHIP and a 7.67 K/9, mixed (to be generous) results in the majors, and velocity that goes from 89-90 as a starter to 94-95 makes it rather easy to move him to the bullpen. 1.03 WHIP and a 13.79 K/9 for Joba in the minors, mostly as a starter, as well as four plus (potentially multiple plus-plus) pitches that he used in the minors and dominated with. Joba's fastball will go from what, 99-100 to 96-97? Still very overpowering as a starter. It's not like Joba is a mystery as a starter. It's why he was such a highly regarded prospect, and it's why he skyrocketed through the system. He was moved to the bullpen because he had such unhittable stuff and there was a void he could fill, and he dominated to no surprise. If the Sox moved Josh Beckett to the 8th inning, I'm sure he would be unhittable as well. But they would never do that, because he's much more valuable as a starter. Same with Joba. I expect them to be very competitive this year, regardless. But I don't really mind if they miss the playoffs this year, as long as they do what is best for the young pitchers. Slowly moving Joba into the rotation where he will be a permanent fixture in 2009, even if it hurts the bullpen in 2008, is the right thing to do.
And for all we know, he might go 19-8 with a 3.40 ERA as a starter. You don't know anything "for sure" until you start him. Although you know a lot more than you did about Mo. And you would STILL need those 60+ games to have enough high-leverage situations to be worth ten wins. Just for a little perspective: Bronson Arroyo went 9-15 with a 4.23 ERA for the Reds last season. His win share was 11. Mariano Rivera's win share for the Yanks last year, with his 67 appearances and 71.1 innings in a closer role? Nine. Papelbon's win share, with his oh so dominant year as the Sox closer? Twelve. Okajima was the best setup man for win shares. He had 10. The best starters in the league will rack up well over 20 win shares per year. The best relievers will sometimes sniff 18 or so. How much difference could this make over the course of a career? Quite a bit. Yes, let's sacrifice a potential top-tier starting pitcher for a decade for the scant possibility that - because of this one very talented player starting games instead of relieving - that the Yankees don't make the playoffs. As "bad" as the Yankee bullpen was supposed to be last year, the Yankees were 81-4 when leading after 7 innings and 80-9 when leading after 6 innings. Part of that is after Joba. But the bulk of it is before him. So what would you rather have? A Joba-less bullpen that maybe goes 77-13 (and I think that's overestimating how often a bullpen blows a lead) when leading after six? Or the sub-.500 record that the Yanks posted in games started by guys like DeSalvo, Rasner, Karstens, Igawa, etc. I'm sorry... but given the much higher impact of starting pitching on the outcome of a game, I'd say the chances are much greater that the Yankees miss the playoffs because of Moose starting games instead of Chamberlain, as opposed to Player X pitching the eighth instead of Joba. People just put the added importance on the late innings because they're the most recent innings that are viewed.
From an Met fan's POV, I think it would be a HUGE mistake for the Yankees to keep Joba in the pen for too much longer. Over the long run, even average, serviceable #3 starter type guys contribute more to a team than even the greatest bullpen hands. Even though he's never been on a level even close to that of Joba, I still feel as if the Mets made a big mistake keeping Aaron Heilman in the pen rather than at least giving him a shot at the rotation after finally showing some success in the big leagues. Even had he just turned into a #4 or #5 starter, throw out a 4.50 ERA on a yearly basis and eat up innings, I still feel that overall his effectiveness to the team in its current state would be greater than it is now as one of the better bullpen hands. Sure, he could've still crashed and burned as a starter, but at least we wouldn't be wondering about what could have been. I hope you guys don't end up in the same boat.
That's what I mean about him saying the right things. I don't buy any of it for a minute. I think what really happened is Epstien woke up one morning, realized the leading closer candidate was Joel Pineiro, vomited, and told Papelbon he was closing again.
First of all if Joba starts 27 ill be shocked considering he's never thrown more than 118 innings in a season at any level. So considering he starts 33 games at 6 innings a start thats 198 innings which would be increasing his largest workload by 2/3. Now i'll admit i'm not up on my sabremetric formulas but i do know the yanks had a losing record in one run games last year and also in extra innings. And is there anyone who can honestly tell me that without having a lights out closer like Mariano the Yankees wouldve won 4 World Series? We have a chance to have two lights out guys in our bullpen for the immediate future and Joba to more than likely continue being lights out in the bullpen for the long term. Out of curiosity if you could give me the leaders for win shares of starters for the last 5 years and tell me how many rings they have combined i'd appreciate it.
The one year we didn't win a championship between 1996-2000 was the same year we had, far and away, our best bullpen. Joba has the potential to be a dominant starter. You take a dominant, top of the rotation starter over a dominant reliever any day of the week. Especially when the Yankees have guys in their system with the potential to be great relievers. If Mariano had the ability to be a dominant starter, he would've never seen the bullpen. And no one would complain.
I can. The reason the Yankees won titles in the 1990's was mainly starting pitching and a few timely hits, plain and simple. Also Jeffery Maier.
Perhaps. Either way, I hope Joba in the pen is only a temporary thing for the beginning of this year to control his innings.
If I were a Yankee fan I'd hope the same. As a Red Sox fan, I can only hope that he ends up staying in the bullpen and wasting his talent.
I was purposefully grabbing a ridiculously high estimate of his performance as a starter. It was an exaggeration for emphasis to point out that you can speculate all you want, not an actual belief that he'll put up those numbers. The real point was that no matter how good the 60+ innings he throws out of the pen, it wouldn't be close to his value as a starter... even if he's just a mediocre to good one. First of all, a losing record in one run games doesn't automatically condemn the bullpen. It could've been 8-7 after the first inning, and stayed that way. Secondly, losing in extra innings doesn't mean anything for your Joba To The Pen argument, since you're not looking to get anything from him in the tenth frame. Um... YES! That's kind of the entire point. Mo is awesome, that's a given. But the Yanks won during their dynasty period based more on starting pitching and timely hits than they did on Mo. Mo just made it so you didn't have to worry about the end of the games as much. Yes, at the cost of passing on a potential front of the rotation starter for the next decade. And by that logic, you'd rather have Jeff Weaver than Johan Santana.
Really? That's an odd conspiracy theory. If anything, Epstein knows the value of a starter vs. a closer and would have prefered that Papelbon have stayed in the rotation... unless Papelbon voiced that strong desire to stay in the pen. And it also seems to be a pointless story to concoct.
Timely hitting late in games when the bullpen continued to hold the lead due to the timely hitting?? Anyway we can all agree to disagree. We're all Yankee fans so what does it matter anyway? The more important question is what is to be done at first base? Goodnight
Timely hitting, period. As in, with RISP. Regardless of the inning. Using this reasoning to support your argument is flawed on multiple levels. First, I never said a bullpen wasn't important. Just that 60 innings out of a pen aren't anywhere near as valuable as the 140 (never mind 200) from a starter. Especially if you start comparing the performance of the replacement players in each position and how that would affect the team's chances of winning games. Secondly, you are saying it like bullpens don't often hold leads. That is just false. Even mediocre bullpens hold most of the late-inning leads they are given. It would be a horrible waste of Joba's abilities if he were kept in the bullpen without seeing what he can do as a starter if only because he will contribute significantly less to the total number innings. It matters because I'm terrified that Joba is going to dominate the opposition again, and the outcry from fans and mediots who think that those sixty innings that Joba pitches out of the pen are more important than what he could provide as a starter are going to put undue pressure on the Yanks to keep Joba in the pen for the future. And, like I said before, that would be a horrible waste. Actually, I find that to be a far less pressing question. Rotate some combination of Betemit, Duncan, and/or Ensberg. I think Betemit has the chance to surprise a lot of people if he's given consistent playing time.
I could be wrong, but I think MLB might have loaded up the April schedule for teams more in response to the Seattle/Cleveland disaster last April. With more scheduled off-days during the summer, it will be easier to make up some of these April rain outs. The Mets only have 3 days off during that span, so I don't think it's a Yankees only thing.
Thanks for that info. You're probably right. Who would have thought baseball would actually do something intelligent? Selig must have been nowhere near the meeting where that was decided. On the Joba subject, to those who want to see him in the bullpen forever, let's put it this way. For argument's sake, let's say he's going to be an elite pitcher in the major leagues over the next 15 years. Whether you believe that or not is irrelevant, just assume it to be fact. Would you make Johan Santana your closer?
