If that were to happen he likely would not be picked as our o line needs to be shored up before as he would waste away with what we have.....but with that said if he did fall to us I'm sure a trade down would be that much better in the picks we could receive from teams.
It's utter and total nonsense that where you draft doesn't matter. It definitely matters. How you draft matters as does the ability of the CS to develop young players and to put them into a position to succeed, but nothing matters more than where you're drafting. That's the big determiner in a team's talent level and their ability to fill holes/meet needs. Everyone knows that topflight QBs, LTs and Pass Rushers go int he top 5-10 picks. If you're drafting outside of that and can't find a team willing to trade down, you're out of luck. Just because the Browns suck at drafting, player development and stability as an organization doesn't mean that drafting high doesn't make a difference. If the Browns had a great GM and CS in place, they wouldn't have to draft in the top 5 but maybe 1-2 seasons, and then they'd become one of the top teams in the NFL., or at least very competitive. It all starts with the owner, as it does the Jets.
It's been said before but it bears repeating. We need so many pieces that almost any spot 1-10 will net something usable.
I agree with this but this year if the jets were addressing their top needs a top 5 pick will not help them any more than picking 7th overall. Before I get torched here the jets don't have the luxury of picking bpa at any position. There are several that are priority. I don't really think anyone forecasted in the top 5 are 100% slam dunks that they would get picked if they fell to the jets. QB will be a very hard sell this year with Bryce putting question marks wether its a need.
Hopefully the Jets don't fall out of the top 6. We really need a couple more losses, however, I won't cry if Petty looks great and we finish with a couple more W's.
So it's very important that we get a top pick so we can select the next Blair Thomas, Lam Jones, or Vernon Gholston? If "Everyone knows that all the topflight QBs, LTs, and Pass Rushers go in the top 5-10 picks", then somebody needs to explain Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Art Shell, Jason Peters, Howie Long, Robert Mathis, Justin Houston, Michael Bennett, and John Randle to "everyone".
I won't torch you, but strongly disagree. You can't just say that there's no difference between drafting at the #5 position and drafting at the #7 position. Drafting at #5 Myles Garrett could possibly be there, it would take a miracle, but he could be there. He'd never be there at #7. The same could go for Watson or Fournette or even Mike Williams. Drafting at #7, the Jets could literally be looking at the BPAs as a DL and CB and unable to trade down. Drafting at the #5 position would give them two more possibilities to get a player who was both BPA and addressed a need or the possibility of trading down.
I wasn't clear, but you know what I meant. The "can't miss" prospects always go that high. Yes, surprises can be found later on, but those can't be predicted and it takes a lot of luck as well as skill to find and draft those players without "reaching" for them. None of the players you mentioned were "can't miss" prospects. The odds of finding one of those greats in lower rounds is a lot less than in the top 5 picks.
I would agree with you, except the Jets seem to always fail with "can't miss" prospects, too. Top 5 picks since the merger: 4 Marvin Powell OT --Hit 4 Chis Ward OT-- Miss 2 Lam Jones WR --Miss 3 Freeman McNeil RB --Hit 2 Blair Thomas RB --Miss 4 Marvin Jones LB --Miss. Good player, if he didn't get injured right away could have lived up to #4 position. 1 Keyshawn Johnson WR --Hit. We got 4 years of him, then traded him for two first-round picks. Have to weigh those in his favor. 4 Dewayne Robertson DT --Miss. 4 D'brickashaw Ferguson OT --Hit. 5 Mark Sanchez QB --Miss. The Jets are 4/10 on "Can't Miss" prospects. I can't put much stock in that. HOWEVER-- I will grant you this: I would much rather tank than TRADE UP for the likes of Mark Sanchez or Dewayne Robertson. If the GM is considering that route at all, he should be fired immediately. We should be trading down and accumulating as many picks as possible. We need almost a whole roster.
Yes, the Jets' history has been a sorry one on about every level and in every possible way, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we're doomed to continue that. It's pretty irrational to say that because the Jets have missed on 2nd round draft picks in the past or missed on "can't miss" prospects that they shouldn't draft any more of them. It just means that we've had moronic owners who didn't hire the right people to run the team. Since one of those moronic owners still owns the team and has yet to hire an experienced, quality football man to run the football operation, you get some points, because it does create some doubt whether Mac will be able to make the right choices or if he is even the right man for the job. He's done enough right and well however, that I think left alone, he could change things for us in a dramatic fashion. At least we have a chance this way, albeit a likely small chance.
we need a franchise qb and that is all we need..once you have that the rest will fall in place and you won't get that trading down, probably not up this year either or in fa.
Unfortunately there are no franchise QBs in this draft worth taking. The jets can't bite the bit and hope....that's not a luxury they have with such a high pick.
I agree with you. I don't think we are doomed, I just think that our young players experiencing winning is more important that our draft position. I think the first place we differ is in that you value the draft position more than I do. I tend to think that blowing a top 5 pick hurts a franchise much more than blowing say a 20th overall pick, whereas hitting on a top 5 pick doesn't net that much more than hitting on a 20th overall pick. I will do my best to keep the players and positions comparable, but understand we're working with a small pool here: Compare Quinton Coples (16) to Vernon Gholston (6). We basically got the same product from each of them on the field, but the Gholston pick weighed heavily in getting Mangini booted, while Coples was just an afterthought on Ryan's list of failures. By the same token, we drafted Wilkerson 30th overall, and (until this year) he's been our best player. If we had drafted him 3rd overall instead of 30th, and he had the same career to this point, he would still be viewed as a very good selection (Marcel Dareus was selected 3rd overall in that draft, and I would say Wilkerson is the better player). I also can't get behind tanking simply because of all my old training. Never give up. Never retreat. Never set your troops up for failure. Reject the philosophy of "Lose the battle to win the war", by always winning every battle and every war. Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women. It doesn't always work out that way, and it probably isn't as effective with multi-millionaire football players. I do agree with you that Mac deserves some level of confidence above what previous GMs have warranted. I would extend that confidence to the point of expecting him to hit on a pick who isn't "Can't miss".
We do need to improve our oline but it isn't some god forsaken o line that he couldn't do anything with it. He's a once in 10 years talent and we can shore up the o line in the following rounds
Sorry, but you're not. The best thing for the future is for Petty to gain confidence and play well and get some wins. This isn't like in 2014 when Winston and Mariota were coming out. Losing now will not effect us - Revis wasn't even drafted in the top 10. And do we really need a running back - especially since we have Powell and Forte. Powell is still young and has a lot left. Offensive line is more important.
It sounds like we definitely disagree on the value of draft position, but that's ok. I agree that blowing a top 5 pick hurts more than blowing the 20th pick, but with the caveat that assuming the team has all its draft picks, that means that in each and every round they have 15 more/better choices of prospects from which to choose. That can make a HUGE difference in whether or not a team is able to address its needs adequately. In addition, in some, if not many drafts, GMs think that there may only be 5-8 players who have a true 1st round grade on them. The rest are 2nd rounders who are getting bumped up because of the lack of quality and depth. In just such a situation, it makes a HUGE difference if you're actually getting a player with a true 1st round grade who pans out versus a 2nd round player who pans out, but you have to take him in the 1st round and pay him as a 1st rounder. Think about going into a draft and needing a QB, a stud pass rusher, or an LT. If you're drafting at #20, most of the time the top 2-3 consensus QB picks are long gone, the top 1-2 pass rushers are gone, and the top 2-3 LTs are gone. So if you have big needs at those 3 positions, it means you either wind up having to settle for what will probably be a lesser player at that position in a lower round, having to reach for said lesser player, or having to do without a player at those positions. How many times over the last 10+ years have the Jets needed a pass rusher and none of the great/good ones were left? Almost every year for those 10 years is the answer. How long have the Jets been looking for their franchise QB? Look at the year Mariota entered the draft. Think draft position didn't hurt? By winning another game or two that season, the Jets lost the ability to draft Mariota. Then in 2014 when they had a chance to draft either Bridgewater or Carr, we had that idiot Idzik at the helm (who some knuckleheads on this site still think shouldn't have been fired) and he passed on both of them. I understand not wanting to tank, but again, it's a matter of short-term gain and momentary value vs. long-term gain and long-lasting value. I got a good chuckle of your description of "hearing the lamentations of their women."
