Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Jay,

    We can't afford to lose you. Please reconsider and get out of there. Don't take any chances and don't leave us to @FJF hands come winter time. :(
     
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  2. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    good luck jay.
     
  3. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    I stand corrected stay safe brother
     
  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Help me out guys what am I looking at here,,,,,,,no definite location for landfall yet ????? Looks like Wilmington ( I think thats Jays Neighborhood but could be wrong about that let me know Jayster ) gets destroyed, does it stall there and is Florence really headed towards SC after hanging out and making landfall in NC ? I even saw one model that has it around the SC / Georgia border after arriving at NC . The High to the North has not weakened in fact it looks even stronger to me so this thing will not head North but where will it head after making landfall ?
     
  5. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    That's exactly what the models are saying - landfall somewhere between Cedar Island, NC and St. Helena Island, SC, and then it heads west, even getting as far as Tennessee or Kentucky before finally turning north.


    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Satan

    Satan Well-Known Member

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    Good luck to those in Florenceā€™s path. You can replace a house but not a oerson
     
  7. Satan

    Satan Well-Known Member

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  8. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Well good luck to anyone who makes a living being a weatherman. Days ago I was wondering if the high to the North could weaken and this thing "might" head North and I was dead wrong as the High only got stronger and will only allow Florence to go so far North then push her into the coast but DID ANYONE SEE THIS COMING ???? It appears that she hits NC but then heads South to Georgia ! Did anyone see this coming or better yet actually happening ???? thoughts ???
     
  9. dawinner127

    dawinner127 Well-Known Member

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    Stay safe Jay.
     
  10. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Be safe dude.... not sure about your elevation, but it looks like that area would be prone to surge flooding due to all the salt marsh creeks... especially if the storm comes ashore a little south. The worst flooded areas here werent on the ocean, but near the ICW / Marsh
    Hopefully you have a 2 story house in case it floods, but seal that bitch up tight! if it looks its gonna bad, you can spray foam your last door shut from the inside to minmize water intrusion.

    Hopefully you have impact windows, if not go board that thing up

    Good Luck
     
  11. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    Apparently the high over Bermuda, which steered it west but would now steer it north, is predicted to weaken, while the high centered over St. Louis is predicted to strengthen and drift to the northeast. That would force the storm to first stall, and then drift south and west. This storm is a wonderful example of how (1) hurricanes move completely at the whim of the upper air highs and lows, and (2) we still don't really understand why those highs and lows do what they do more than a day or two out.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    will be updating in a few hours. I know this isn't the smartest thing in the world to do. We have the cape fear river about a half mile away. You guys know I live for this stuff and its not the smartest thing to do...but we are pretty far from the beach. Several miles from Wrightsville beach. To experience over 100 mph winds and 2 feet of water isn't smart...but 2 story home....we will be ok. Will check maps this afternoon and update anything I see here....thanks guys
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Here is the NWS for our area of Wilmington:

    This Afternoon
    Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Tonight
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
    Thursday
    Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
    Thursday Night
    Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
    Friday
    Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
    Friday Night
    Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
    Saturday
    Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
    Saturday Night
    Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. Low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
    Sunday
    Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    As you can see from that...the STALL and barely no movement is the worst part
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    and the discussion from our National Weather Service...pretty bad:
    As of 430 PM Tuesday...Hazard additions include `Flash Flood
    Watch` across SE NC and NE SC Thursday through Saturday, with
    Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings maintained, as well as a
    Tropical Storm Watch over interior NE SC.

    This is shaping up to be a very dangerous scenario, as Florence
    nears our coast and stalls, unprecedented, and life-threatening
    flooding may unfold. As a Cat-4 system, ocean overwash across
    the barrier islands is becoming more likely, associated with
    storm surge, and right now forecast to inundate between 7-11
    feet along the Pender/New Hanover beaches, north of the center
    of Florence initially. If the slow SW drift of Florence pans
    out, this to bring very dangerous conditions to the NE South
    Carolina coast as well, late Friday into Saturday.

    Isolated tornadoes will become a threat Thursday along the NC
    coast, as helicity associated with the rain/shower bands of
    Florence`s NW quadrant begin to impinge the SE NC coast.

    &&

    .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    As of 330 PM Monday...The main change this period, to increase
    POP values as the effects of Florence linger over the area this
    weekend, with a gradual lessening of wind and rain as the
    remnants of Florence rotate away from the local area. It is
    this period that significant river flooding will begin to emerge
    from potentially enormous rainfall run-off. Any residents along
    rivers should make plans now to leave, due to the potential of
    fast and potentially big river rises. This is becoming more to
    be a dangerous weekend across the area and preparations should
    be underway right now.
     
  15. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay be smart about this , you don't need me or anyone else to tell you what to do but this aint a snowstorm we are talking about here. A 2 story house or not the storm surge will be ridiculous and getting thru the storm is one thing getting thru the aftermath is another,,, no electric and damage everywhere ( hopefully no where near you or family or pooch ) and water all over the freaking place ,,,,,,as others have said ,if it was me I would seal up the place best I could and lock it up and get out of dodge,,,hell I like the mouse maybe a few days with the family at Disney to take my mind off things . Keep us posted,,,,be safe and " one of these years answer your effing phone " lol
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol....I just saw missed call...left phone back during vaca. Phone is now on.

    I hear what you are saying and we are beginning to talk about it now. The last model runs destroy Wilmington....will update you. Truthfully...huge amounts of people staying....tough call.
     
  17. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    Meanwhile, at the same time Florence hits the Carolinas Tropical Storm Isaac will hit the Lesser Antilles, with some places expected to get 8" of rain. That might not sound so bad in a comparative sense, but Dominica is directly in its path, and it was only a year ago that the island was totally devastated by Hurricane Maria, a Category 5 storm when it hit the island.
     
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  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey staff,
    That would be horrible...horrible for D.R. They couldn't handle that again.
     
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  19. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    D R is farther West then Dominica but not too far,,,,,,,,but Dominica would be hit first and soon as it is in Isaacs path as of now,,,,,,,,in other news to quote THE CLASH You staying or going Jay ?
     
  20. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Depending how high your base elevation is, This should be your concern over everything else
     
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