Jay still a long way to go but it appears from the latest runs that N n W gets hit hard,,,,,IF IF IF it happens 4-8 seems low even for Fjay ---thoughts ?
Jay , Fjay ,,, or anyone else,,,,Here is what I will say to give snow amounts or totals NOW is comical. Yes this is getting close but its still all very much in question .There is still a chance that this could BUST and not happen or not happen as bad as advertised . Weather peeps on TV and such can see the potential that is there but the track of this storm and how it comes together on Wednesday is still very much in question. The fist wave which is today Tuesday will effect the second wave ( Wednsedays ) and what it might do .I think we need to wait until later today and possibly even tomorrow to have a better idea what will happen. I will tell you that The NAM model that has had a decent handle on the other 3 storms as far as dynamics and track came out 2 hours ago and moved this thing real REAL FAR EAST which was a drastic shift and it might have been a blip or hiccup ( it happens sometimes ) or it might be on to something we will have too see if other models say the same today or if it was just a bad model run but way east would effect snow totals from Manhattan west. Long story short is this storm still needs to be watched and there is a lot of liquid and wind involved, and the temps appear to be cold enough for everyone but when and where this goes is still very much up in the air---it could be a bomb or it could still bust but for me its too early to say one way or the other. Watches and Warnings are a safe way for the NWS to go but to talk in absolutes right now and say what WILL happen instead of what COULD happen is not the way to go.---thoughts ????????
Well, I know most of you dont want this one, but the last 2 storms barely tickled my balls in Nassau county and BK, so I want to get crushed this time. I want all my trains cancelled and I want to stay in bed all day, while my building maintenance cleans up the mess!
quoting myself here because these numbers are too LOW. It now looks like a 12-18 storm for many. Amazingly...we are back at the original numbers when this storm was first being tracked.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 344 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-178-202000- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0008.180320T2200Z-180322T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0008.180321T0400Z-180322T1200Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 344 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed winter precipitation transitioning to heavy snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches and light ice accumulations are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.
Just checked NAM...hmmm....FJF..you hit it...this sharp cutoff will have to be watched because there will be MAJOR busts where that is..remember this...MAJOR BUSTS.
I hope where I am (FAIR LAWN, NJ...BERGEN COUNTY) I end up in the "BUST" category but the latest for me shows 5-8 tomorrow afternoon with an additional 2-4 tomorrow night.
MMM....think you are forecasted for much higher then that Greg. Fairlawn, NJ from the NWS: Tonight A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 11pm and 1am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 8am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. If my math is ok...that's 10-18 and here we go again with the "thundersnow" These have been some really powerful storms. Areas around the coast that do end up primarily snow..will have blizzard conditions.
Now..I know this is vague but I do believe the bust potential meter is reading high for this one. Where is the bust potential? Tough call but would put it at west of I95...southern NY State...interior CT. Now bust doesn't mean no snow...but..man...that cutoff line is a real hard cut. Could easily be wrong...but between the cutoff line and a daytime snow for the final 2/3rds of March? Highs at the freezing mark? Where it does come down, it will snow buckets. So that could overcome the time of year..easily..it happens. Still...that cutoff line? Tough call. Again...banding...where does that band line up?
and just checked long term...this pattern..at least temps..doesn't want to go to spring anytime soon. Crazy. Even freeze warnings for down there Thursday morning and Friday morning. Yes..I agree...this sucks.
So TWC has me for 1-3 2-6 while showing the WSW advising 6-12 locally more. So basically no one knows
Thanks for the update. I hope its closer to 10 and I really hope its the light and fluffy snow although I know it will probably the heavy wet stuff. Any idea yet when the worst will be over in Bergen County. Thanks for the updates.
Anytime Greg...great to see you. They have the end time for Wednesday night and I always move up end times by 2 to 4 hours but not sure here...if you look at the accumulations for Wednesday night for you, it has more at night then during the day for 2 reasons. 1. They believe the banding of heavy snow will set up over your area late Wednesday after 2pm or so. 2. More importantly, once the sun begins to go down, accumulations will increase faster...so I would stick with what they are calling for except perhaps 8 to 9 pm? I do believe they are incorrect that you will get that much snow at night...I believe most of the snow will fall before 7pm. Example for most..if you get lets say 10", you will have that by 7pm or close to it.
You sir are right on that line and your area will tell those south of you what happens. If you get 7 or 8? Those areas in NNJ and east will get the worst case scenario. Your area will tell the story to the south.
Here is what I'm trying to explain..and probably doing a shitty job of it. This is the forecast for Sparta, NJ from the NWS. If this comes true...all areas east and south and northeast will get over a foot of snow. Sparta in in NW Jersey...if this holds up? Most will get over a foot of snow: Sparta nj from the NWS: Tonight A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Northeast wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. and for the record...and area like Sparta would be in the possible bust range. If Sparta gets this..many in NNJ will get over a foot..and closer to 14-18
Thanks I will definitely be checking throughout the day for the latest. One thing I am planning tomorrow is multiple trips outside with the snow blower. I will go out at least 2 or 3 times for sure.
Brilliant...doesn't need repeating but what the hell...HEAVY WET SNOW. Do not wait until the end to do it. Great move.
and again...have to keep repeating this...2 SYSTEMS. First one is not much at all later this evening tonight....so don't let your guard down because you wake up to nothing or not much. First system is a joke compared to round 2.
