Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Well this latest Euro doesn't look good for me. Rides the coast and comes right up into Tampa Bay as a Cat 3. on 9/11
    It still has time to push further out into the gulf but that would likely mean devastation for the panhandle or Bama, Miss. or LA., I think those areas have seen enough of storms over the last 10-12 years.

    On the plus side, my palms are already getting trimmed for me, that was on my to do list for next week.
     
  2. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Fell asleep,,,,just looking at last nights runs,,,,,,being over Cuba has really weakened Irma,,,,but all mets talking about how this will intensify as it gets over the warm water away from Cuba. Looks like Tampa or just South of Tampa takes the hit,,,,not a good scenario,,,,,still time to change but be safe all
     
  3. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    I spent 3 days turning my house into a concrete submarine after last year..... and now the track has shifted way west, so fuckit, I'm staying on the island. Still a chance we get some of the nasty NE side affects over here as it expands, but where to go at this point, plus my dad was being stubborn, so I'm gonna stay close by to "babysit" my parents. I think we'll be ok. I'm expecting cat 1 style winds, half the surge of last year, but a shitton of rain

    Good Luck Waterboy.... be safe! Shit can still get real bad for you.....

    Sorry Cuba, but we appreciate the help!

    normally I'd be pretty pissed about missing JETS opening day (power will most likely be out) but this year... ehh, just a technicality o_O
     
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  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Stay safe Stinky,,,keep your guard up buddy and that goes for everyone , models say one thing but Irma could still have other things in mind .
     
  5. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    I was living in an apartment 4 houses from the beach..... 1st time I've evacuated. We were the last ones to leave the island and headed to Ocala to my buddies dad's house. We wanted to surf first...
    When we got there, other people that went there from JAX said they saw 2 guys jump off the St. A pier with surfboards on First Coast News..... well guess who? ha
    We headed back as soon as they opened the bridge the next afternoon (we were drinkin beer and shooting skeet), but came back to double overhead offshore surf... My buddy said "LETS GO!" "uhhh... dude, not sure about that (6 pack of sammy in my gut)" we got in his van, hopped over the pier railing, hopping over missing boards to the end, for a shortcut to the lineup.

    I sure sobered up quick as I took one of those waves to the head (mistimed jump off the pier to avoid the Po-lease)

    I caught one bomb.... that I rode too far, and got smashed and sent down the beach, then it got dark and we met friends at Sunset Grille for food and beers as it was the only place open in town.

    We got SPARED by that storm. it wouldve destroyed EVERYTHING. If anyone isnt familiar, google a sat. image of Floyd :eek:
    I have one framed on my wall
     
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  6. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    10-4... thanks

    my original evac location will prob gonna get it worse than here now..... trucks full of gas and tools, cooler has 60lbs of ice.... and 2 cases of beer if I need to split
     
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Quick question ,,,,my in laws who are on the East Coast and and others who did not leave the East, what type of Winds (IF IRMA ACTUALLY follows the models ) should they expect ? My In laws are between West Palm n Boca and if I'm reading this wind graph correctly they could still hit high 70 s or 80 mph winds,,,,am I mistaken would winds be lower / higher ? I understand storm path could easily change Im asking as of now latest models ?
     
  8. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    As of the 5 am update, they are saying only about 9% chance of hurricane force winds, 31% chance of 58mph winds and 83% chance of 39mph winds for WPB. Of course gusts can be higher and they still have to worry about storm surge but they are looking 100 times better than they were 36 hours ago.
     
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  9. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, you be careful too, still a good chance of 50-60mph winds over there plus higher gusts. NHC says winds are probably going to be higher up there than they will in Broward and W Palm Beach
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    SB and WB....good luck guys....please keep us updated as long as power allows.

    Link provided shows incredible agreement but still...a wobble here or there means 20 miles. Naples...being on the NE side of the eye is the first after the keys to get blasted. Problem is there is agreement but not much (on the strength...not track) +on what Irma does over the incredibly warm waters from cuba to Florida as it starts the north turn. Unfortunately there is a lot of room for strengthening..A LOT. Keep us updated guys...please.

    Model Spaghetti plots:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png
     
  11. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

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    ABS is drunk
     
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  12. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Nam more East,,,,can Nam really be looked at for tropical storms at this time of year ?
     
  13. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I'll post here as long as I can. We'll be heading out tomorrow morning, only have a10 minute drive to where we'll be staying but we'll have the generator going if we lose power.

    I picked the wrong day to lose my keys, have my back up car keys but at a time like this really needed to have both sets. My truck is loaded, wife will be home by 12:30 and we'll get her loaded and be ready to go in case Irma gets here sooner.
     
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  14. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Tornado sightings over the water and warnings are up,,,,,,be safe all ,,thoughts and prayers !
     
  15. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    We caught a huge break when Irma tracked west slightly over Cuba. Maybe it will land as a Cat 4 now and the surge will be lower than it would have been with 150mph winds.
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Use NAM as a trend ...if no models follow lead...no...but if one of them do...keep an eye out. Also...I like it within 48 hours.

    ALSO...KEEP TRACKING AFTER THIS IS OVER AND WATCH WHAT JOSE MIGHT DO. Loop d loop with an eye on the east coast...NJ on the last run...BUT WAY OUT. Just keep tracking.
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Good point but several models have it exploding...dropping record number mb's once it turns north. Still wouldnt rule out cat 5..in fact with some of these drops..would think very possible.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    just looked at the latest GFS and even if its overdone...i would be totally shocked if this doesnt go back to CAT 5 before landfall. Really shocked.
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    to my extremely uneducated eye, it looks like Irma is wrapping up with CUBA and will begin its turn north. It also looks like its picked up that CUBA is no longer under it, and is beginning to feed off the warm ocean. Looks like she is about to begin the deepening process. Dont like how fast that started at all.

    LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
     
  20. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Oh man stink, i remember seeing that, well done sir.
     

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