Is Velocity Really the "Gold Standard"?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by ColoradoContrails, Apr 24, 2017.

  1. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    A lot of comments have been made over the "Throwing Velocity" numbers from the Combine, and many of those comments have all but ruled out Deshaun Watson ever making it in the NFL because of his 49 mph showing. But is "Throwing Velocity" really that important? Does Watson's numbers really sink him?

    (Apologies in advance for the length of this post, but I tried to include relevant info in the body)

    Well there's these tweets from Benjamin Allbright:
    "For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this.

    Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure"


    And:

    "2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft travelled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"

    This would seemingly answer the question, BUT there's this from Greg Gabriel on Pro Football Weekly:

    http://www.profootballweekly.com/20...or-of-how-good-he-will-be-in-the-nfl/a93ef5p/

    "After these results were tweeted out, there were a number of other tweets saying things such as, “The minimal number a QB can have is 55" or, "Anyone with less than 55 will struggle to play in the NFL,” etc.

    I found these tweets amusing, as the people who were posting these things don’t have any idea of what they are talking about. Why? The “velocity” stat has only been used for a few years and there is not nearly enough evidence to tell us a thing other than the miles per hour a quarterback's throw is traveling. Ten years from now there may be some evidence, but today there is nothing. In fact when I asked some GMs and coaches around the league that I know about the stat they all agreed it was meaningless at this time as far as predicting anything. Again, not enough data.


    Most if not all of the top quarterbacks in the league never had their velocity measured at the Combine. I guarantee you that some of the greatest of all-time would have “flunked’ the velocity test. Coming out of college Peyton Manning had a good, but not a great arm. Tom Brady actually had a bit less than a good arm and Drew Brees' arm strength coming out was below average at best."

    And in this long and "technical" article from PASS - (Player Analysis & Scouting Service):
    http://pass2win.com/ball-velocity-exposing-the-power-qb.html

    Perceptions, Misconceptions and setting the Record Straight

    Over the years we’ve marveled at the power quarterbacks generate throwing the football. Some turned that arm-strength into championship results while others experienced sporadic moments in the spot-light. Past power-passers such as John Elway, Brett Favre, Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Randall Cunningham, Vinny Testaverde, Jim Kelly, Sonny Jurgensen and Daryle Lamonica all dazzled fans through the years with highlight rainbow trajectories deep down field for touchdowns and fastball strikes into seemingly invisible seams through defensive secondaries. Others, like Kyle Boller and Jamarcus Russell, never could harness their arm-power to make it work for them. When examining and breaking down the glorious power-passers of the past we had to rely on the “eye test” to confirm their reputations of possessing strong throwing arms. Today we still use “game tape” to gauge a quarterback’s ability to generate “heat”, but now we can confirm what the eye sees by measuring ball velocity with a JUGGS gun, or other speed-reading radar devices. In an article posted on Livestrong.com (Maximum Speed of a Football, October 21, 2013 by Rogue Parrish) the speed at which past quarterbacks could spin the football was “largely anecdotal but indicate that the greatest quarterbacks had exceptional throwing speed.” Mr. Parrish noted that Packer gunner Brett Favre was estimated at 63 mph. Now retired passing star and Hall-of-Famer-to-be Peyton Manning (pre-neck injury) could hit 59 on shorter throws. Saints’ QB Drew Brees was clocked at 52 MPH in a “Sports Science” segment for ESPN. According to some, including former Bronco wideout Rod Smith, John Elway brought the greatest velocity to the field. It is said Elway ripped it consistently in the 60-plus MPH. “


    Taken all together, I think that there's more to judging a QB's probability of success than just how fast he can throw a football, although it does seem to be a common thread among the best QBs. But using an arbitrary "cutoff" of 55 mph meaning anything below that means failure isn't accurate either. And whatever their current velocity is now, for those that go onto pro careers usually increase it substantially. So no doubt there will be teams scared off by Watson's 49 mph, but they may regret that decision.
     
    NCJetsfan and westiedog1 like this.
  2. Martin&theJETS

    Martin&theJETS Well-Known Member

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    Interesting read, thanks.
     
  3. JetsFan

    JetsFan Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is that important! When at least 10 of your 16 regular games will be outside in the northeast weather, velocity can play a big part in helping a team win in bad weather.

    Watson has a slow ball, which is not that accurate, regardless of the stats. This is the reason he posted 30 INTs over the last two years. He had 17 INTs this year playing against college DBs and throwing to four guys who will be on NFL teams when this draft is over. If he had 17 INTs in college in a good year, what will he throw against the NFL's best DBs?

    Watson played 5 of the same teams that Trubisky played and completed fewer TDs, with twice as many INTs. Nothing kills a team like a QB that throws INTs. All Jet fans know this since we have had the worst INT rate in 5 of the last 6 years (Sanchez, Smith, Fits).
     
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  4. Big Cat

    Big Cat Well-Known Member

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    I've been saying all along that Watson needs to go to a dome or a warm weather team to be successful. Bringing up Brees is an interesting comparison because he has a reputation for only playing well at home.
     
  5. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    30 picks in 30 starts at the college level does not translate well to the NFL. Defenders are quicker and have better ballhawking skills. Now factor in the Northeast winds and I'd stay away from Watson if I were the Jets.
     
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  6. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Watson only threw it 49? wow, that's a big red flag.
     
  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I didn't post this to advocate for taking Watson...just food for thought, and alternative POV. That said, I DO like Watson, but agree that he's probably not a good fit for an outdoor stadium in the NE.

    Now Mahomes OTOH...:D
     
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  8. westiedog1

    westiedog1 Well-Known Member

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    I think velocity is very important in the pros. This is the main reason why I didn't consider Chad Pennington a top QB. What I question is whether the velocity measurement taken by third parties when the test participants are being judged on other measureables is legitimate. I have no problem if they want to measure ball velocity, but if so, create a test that is a league sanctioned standard in which the participants are aware of the objective.
     
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  9. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Good question and interesting post.

    I think Watson can possibly succeed in the NFL, but not in the NE. If he's gonna succeed, I think he needs to be in a domed stadium, or in a warm weather place like Florida, Arizona or Southern California where there aren't strong winter winds. The winds in the NE are just too strong and it would limit his effectiveness and his team's offense too much.

    There's also the factor of the type of offense. I think he will need to play in a short-passing type offense where he doesn't have to throw a lot of long out passes to the sidelines or a lot of post patterns.

    Remember when Chad was our QB. There were certain routes the Jets never threw because Chad didn't have the arm strength. It gave opposing Ds a real advantage as they didn't have to worry about covering those routes.

    There's also the issue of coverage in the NFL is a lot tighter than it is in college. DBs are faster, read patterns better, and windows get smaller. Not having a the gun to throw it into tight windows consistently, would have a negative impact on his ability to succeed.

    IMO in order to succeed, he's going to have to anticipate throws a lot more, have pinpoint accuracy, and have receivers that are very good at getting open.
     
    #9 NCJetsfan, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017

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