Yeah I know it's just the pre-season. And I know last year his overall (more on that later) accuracy last year was only 56%. And I know calling Geno elite at anything right now may seem a little premature. But I think Geno may actually already be one of the elite passers in terms of accuracy in the NFL. In the pre-season he has been 23 for 33 (69.7%) against some pretty good secondaries. Atleast 4 of those 10 incompletions should have been caught, and the 5th was the one by Hill in the game against the Giants that was a tough catch to make, but it was no doubt in the right spot. If at the very least 2 of those get hauled in, then we are looking at 75.7%. Last season he was also already in the top 10 in the NFL in terms of passes thown atleast 20 yards downfield (21 for 50, 46%), which are the toughest to make. His main struggles last season came on the short passes, and many times they fell incomplete just because nobody was open, especially when Kerley was out. In the games where Kerley was in his completion percentage was actually better then Sanchez's during any of his 4 years with the Jets. In college his completion percentage over the course of his 3 full seasons at West Virginia was also 67.6 percent. Now with much better options to throw to in Decker, Amaro, and CJ2K we are seeing that same type of accuracy that Geno had in college. My point is that I think his accuracy issues last year were just an outlier when you look at his playing days as a whole, and he is truly a 65 - 70 percent passer right now. That would put him up there with Manning, Brees, Rodgers, and Rivers in terms of accuracy. I think time will tell when it comes to other things such as decision making, but right now I do think that he already has elite accuracy.
If Geno can keep up 62-65% during the regular season I'll be jizzing in my pants. I doubt he'll average as high as 70-75, but stranger things have happened and he does have some new security blankets this year (Decker, CJ & Amaro). Last year the big problem with Geno in regards to accuracy was consistency. He'd bounce up and down from game to game. His best game last season he was 80% (Falcons) and his worst was 34% (Buffalo). That's a huge difference, and pretty much what you expect from a rookie. Against TB, TEN, ATL, CIN, OAK, MIA, he was near 65% or better but for NE, NO, BUF, BAL, other MIA he was in the low 40s or worse. For the remaining games, he was in the low 50s near his average for the season. Since 2009, the Jets haven't had a truly accurate QB, and it would be a breath of fresh air. Geno seems to be more confident now, and has a better grasp of the system. Hopefully it will translate to the regular season.
His really bad accuracy games came with Kerley on the sidelines, and most of his ones in the 50's he was against really good defenses like the Panthers. The schedule is going to play in favor of Geno too. The Raiders, Packers, Bears, Lions. and Chargers all have terrible secondaries and are our 1st 5 games. If he is throwing for 67 percent against top 10 secondaries like the Bengals and Giants, I can't fucking wait to see what he does to awful ones like those teams have. It's part of the reason too why I think people are overreacting about our schedule. The Pack, Bears, Lions, and Chargers all have mediocre to bad offensive lines and really weak secondaries. That completely plays into the Jets strengths. If our defense can hold those teams to about 27 points each I wouldn't be shocked at all if we start the year 4-1, and the offense carries the team early on to a bunch of wins.
I just don't see him going from being extremely poised three weeks in a row, to all of a sudden becoming a mess, especially when the quality of secondaries he is about to face is about to plummet. People have been so trained to call the preseason meaningless when that couldn't be further from the truth. The final score is meaningless. The way the starters are playing though is beyond meaningful though. After seeing EJ Manuel these 1st three weeks, I really doubt he is going to all of a sudden take off and play great once the season starts. Same deal with Eli Manning. He is playing very poorly in the WCO. He's not going to start playing awesome football all of sudden in week 1. We saw it with Geno last year. He sucked in the preseason and sure enough he sucked in the regular season.
Accuracy and completion percentage are two different things. What Geno has been doing this year that has made the difference so far in terms of completing passes is to make the correct read and deliver the ball in a manner that his receiver can make the catch. He's still only average in accuracy overall. It's his decision-making that has given him the 70% completion rate. Look at the passes not completed and you will see Geno's accuracy as one of the main factors alongside the Jets tendency to drop balls this pre-season. When Geno makes the right read he can complete 70%+ of his passes without breaking a sweat. At WVU they basically had two types of plays. The first type was a single read play that was often a very short pass designed to get yards after the catch. The second type was a two read play with both the receivers on the same side of the field and that's where most of their long passes came in. Geno was extremely accurate on the first type and had average accuracy on the second. The game plan on the two reads was just to watch the deep safety and see where he went. If he was looking at the deep receiver, usually Stedman Bailey, Geno would check down right away and throw to the other guy just up the seam, usually Tavon Austin. If the deep safety was somewhere else Geno would throw the ball to Bailey even if his man was literally glued to him. Geno knew Bailey would win 90% of the fights for the ball and come down with it. Note that in neither type of play did Geno really have to scan the field. That's what he has apparently learned to do now, giving him a shot at being a very good NFL QB.
completion percentage isn't necessarily a sign of accuracy, and I wouldn't call Smith's anywhere near "elite" despite his progress. However it is improving along with his decision making, its a positive step but lets not crazy.
Yes, but I was also loving seeing him step up in the pocket and throw the ball to receivers while a guy was in his face. That crossing route he threw to Hill was great as he timed it perfectly and I think it was Kiwanuka coming in hot right in his grill
80% of all incompletions this year will be negated by defensive contact penalties anyway, so Geno's completion pct. should hover around the 102% mark. Which will be good for 17th in the league.
For all of his stats, he only led the team to one TD drive the whole time he was in there against the giants. and that's against vanilla coverage by the defense as these are pre season games. While I do like some things he did, I want to see this on a consistent basis during the regular season when he is facing disguised coverages. Personally guys I don't think he is going to get past 50% completion rate. He will give us the same thing that he gave us last year, inconsistent quarterbacking. Honestly I hope I'm wrong, but preseason football and everything these guys do or don't do is overrated. Teams are just trying to get through it without major injuries and filling in holes on the depth chart. JMO
One thing that will have a big effect on Geno's completion percentage is less balls thrown away intentionally. I have never seen a QB throw away more balls intentionally last year than Geno. He was throwing away (up until the last few games) 3-8 balls away each game. That is 10-20% of his passes. When he has more confidence and less of a need to play it so safe, understands the offenses and defenses better, and the game slows down more, and he learns to tuck it and run more like the last few games last year, he will obviously have a big jump in completion percentage. I have no idea how he got 56% with all those intentional throwaways. That is pretty amazing. But pre-season is pre-season. Lets see how much he has learned when the season starts. The amount he had to improve on the mental part of his game between last year and this is pretty huge. We need to be realistic in our expectations as far as improvement.
Geno Smith's accuracy has been erratic going back to college. I think he's improved his accuracy just by working on his mechanics. His footwork looks noticeably better. I still stress that he needs to do a better job executing pass plays under center. Hopefully someday
He truly looks much more comfortable this pre-season. Let's hope that is the case when the games count. I think that he will do quite well.
Already elite accuracy based on completion percentage and in preseason? Hard to comment on such an ignorant post. Geno has been much better but very conservative this preseason. Brad talks about making the correct read but it is more about not making the risky throw. If it is not there run. To score TDs he will have to take more risks. As far as accuracy he has been better on the slants driving the ball. He has been pretty poor this preseason on the touch throw or throwing off balance. He looks better than last year no doubt but even this preseason we have relied on the run for most of our offense success. Geno will have arrived when he can carry a game.
Already "elite"? Geno has looked very sharp this preseason but let's pump the breaks on the elite talk yet. Do you know who is even more elite this preseason (if we're equating comp % with accuracy?): Logan Thomas Brady Quinn Connor Shaw G J Kinne **** ******* (he who shall not be named) Chase Daniel Kellen Moore Matt Cassel Sam Bradford Zach Mettenberger Tom Savage Ryan Tannehill Kellen Clemens Zach Dysert Josh Johnson David Fales Jordan Palmer All told there are about 50 QBs with a completion percentage at or above 65%. Geno at 69.7% is great but he's 30th on that list. Of course some are in very limited action, but you can't give too much weight to preseason. _
