My thoughts on the QB's in the 2018 draft, 18 hours before the draft. #1 on my list. Josh Rosen. I don't care what the naysayers say, long term (barring injury, but that goes for all QB's) I think Rosen will be the best of this years crop. I think he'll be the best out of the gate and the best over the course of his career. he doesn't have the ceiling of Darnold or Allen but he's got a much higher floor than either of them, and his ceiling isn't that much lower. #2 on my list is Darnold. Full Disclosure, I don't like USC QB's, the school has a horrible history with NFL QB's. Maybe it's not fair to hold that against him, but I do. Just about any other school if he put up what he's done over his college career I'd probably have him higher than Rosen, he's got a higher ceiling...but he's got a lower floor and a bigger bust factor. #3 on my list is Josh Allen. To be fair this is a toss up between him and Mayfield, almost. Both have a huge bust factor in my eyes, but Allen has the higher ceiling, in fact the highest ceiling in this draft. But he's also got about the lowest floor. Whoever drafts him will either hit a grand slam or strike out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th.....very little mid ground. I give Allen the edge over Mayfield due to the higher ceiling. #4 on my list is Mayfield. I get the buzz, I do....but I don't think he translates well to the NFL. He's not got Drew Breezes arm or the athleticism of Russell Wilson. and his rollouts that work so well in college will get his body crushed at the NFL level. He's got a lower ceiling than any of the other 3 QB's and he's got a Manziel bust factor (not that he has the character issues of Manziel, but the game just doesn't translate to the NFL.) Sorry, that's how I see it. And I'll stand by what I've said, Rosen's my choice, hands down.
#1 is Rosen. He's the only one I can see succeeding here in spite of the coaching & management. I don't have faith in us developing a raw QB. #2 is Darnold. I don't get the hype, but I'll accept the hype. Like you, I'm torn between Mayfield & Allen. I probably lean towards Mayfield a bit, but either one is simply a consolation prize.
As everyone here knows, I'm extremely opinionated and confident in my opinions. I have very strong opinions, but am always willing to admit when I am wrong and would rather be wrong and the team right than vice versa. I will be disappointed if Mayfield goes before our pick or if Mac chooses another QB tonight instead. While I may wind up disappointed and not very optimistic, for all of our sake, my fervent hope will be that the Jets either by skill or luck, get the QB tonight who will prove to be the BEST in this draft and that he will develop into one of the best of the next decade. If that proves to be one of the QBs other than Mayfield, and we have him, and Mayfield doesn't develop into a great QB in the NFL, I will happily admit that I was wrong. I will root like crazy for which ever QB the Jets take tonight, and I hope that ALL of you will!!!!
#1. Darnold. I love his character, athleticism, and general playmaking ability. Concerned about his mechanics and turnovers, but he's very young and those can be fixed. Not concerned about USC, worrying about that is like worrying about Derek Carr because his brother was a bust. #2a. Mayfield. I had Rosen as slightly above Mayfield, but I've said before that of these two I'd take the guy I liked better in the interviews. And Mayfield seems to have done better in them than Rosen. I can see Mayfield having the best rookie year of these 4 QBs, assuming he goes to a team that lets him run an offense he's comfortable with. #2b. Rosen. See #2a. One of the best things about taking a pure pocket passer is he'll stay healthy (see Brady who only missed one season compared to Rodgers who's always getting hurt). But Rosen already comes with injury concerns. #4. Allen. Nothing to do with the tweets, everything to do with his struggles in college. While he's way too athletic to be Hack, he has a long way to go before he can be a good NFL QB. He'll do best in a cold weather environment because unlike other QBs, the conditions won't affect his game. I also think Lauletta is very good value for whoever drafts him in the 2nd/3rd round. His arm is weak for a rookie, but there are several weak-armed QBs who play well in the NFL. And they were usually undervalued in the draft.
I will support whoever is drafted, though I may complain some. But I will wish them the best and hope they do the best. I will extend to whoever is drafted the same courtesy that I bestow upon all players, not to be too critical of them for their first two seasons. I expect rookies to struggle on occasion, as long as I see progression and growth I'll be happy....however, if they're a turnover machine I do reserve the right to criticize that portion of their game regardless of who is drafted, even if it's my guy. Oh I will crow if someone other than my guy is drafted and my guy performs better over the years. I am not comparing Rosen to Marino as to how he'll play in the NFL, I never want to compare any draftee to a hall of fame member, however the talk of a Rosen 'fall' reminds me of Marino's fall in the draft due to talk and interviews and rumors. Mayfields rise on the other hand reminds me of Todd Blackledges rise in that same draft. Not saying either player will be those players, only that the draft situation reminds me of the 1983 draft in that regard.
Sam Darnold has Elway qualities also. It really is a weaker version of the '83 draft in my opinion. I have 5 or 6 QB's going in the 1st round at this point.
83 Redux is here. All I say is don't sway away from the tape, Jets can't overthink this. Rosen by far is the most talented passer with an idea on how to succeed in the NFL (read his ideas on progressions). To him, its a game of chess. We haven't had a player like that since Pennington. This is the type of IQ that can create an identify on offense. We protect him, we win. We already have the weapons on the outside.
1. Mayfield 2. Rosen 3. Darnold 4. Allen Jets need to hit on this one. Mayfield / Rosen will both be good to great. Darnold and Allen may have the higher ceilings, but I think both could end up busts.
Still can't stress it enough. Saquon Barkley is my favorite player from this draft class. But since we're going QB; Josh Rosen is my pick. Has that Brady/Manning type of pocket passing presence. He's going to become a top tier QB.
F it! I’m jumpin on the Baker train! Agreeing with Brook and N.C. is a bad sign tho, those guys don’t kno anything about football!!
I think the raw athletic ability and performance over two seasons is sort of comparable to Elway and that's why he has been the default #1 for so long. Elway took a couple of seasons to hit his stride but he was playing in season one and I expect the same will be true of Darnold. Elway had four years as a starter in college to Darnold's two, however I think the NFL is much more passer friendly now than it was in '83 so the learning curve will be similar for Darnold.
Very nicely said NC. I'm right there with you. I know for an absolute fact that even though I have a favorite, I'm not remotely qualified to make the pick tonight. That is what we are paying Mac and his crew to do. May they be extremely successful and hit a gold mine by choosing the one we have all being waiting so long for. The one that will soon become the FQB we so desperately need.
We’d be better served not taking anyone not named Rosen or darnold. I understand we traded up for a QB but overdrafting one by a solid round doesn’t help anything