okay, I've always done a pre-draft mock. This year I've done it in a weird way because between work, health issues and the lack of a 2nd round pick I haven't followed the draft very well this year. So I used a draft simulator so I could at least kind of fake the 3-7th round picks. My rules on using the simulator was #1 no obscene trades, only if I could make a good solid argument for the draft falling a particular way. That said, I did make 1 early trade and a series of trades from the 4th round on. I did not go trade crazy, though I did obtain a few 7th round picks and an extra 6th..rounds 1-5 I only had 1 pick per round so it's not like I went crazy on trades. I did make a trade in the first round. I'll explain why I allowed the trade and took it. I have made a very real argument for the Browns taking Saquaon Barkley at #1 and still getting their prime QB at #4, I've made that argument on the board and I've seen that argument made in a couple other places, though I don't expect it to really happen but I can make a very good argument for it since all the QB prospects of the top 4 all have question marks and in my book all grade out pretty close together. The sim did indeed pick Barkley for the Browns at #1. The sim then picked Bradley Chubb for the Giants. I have seen Chubb linked to the Giants, I have seen the Giants linked to Barkley, I've seen the Giants trading out of the 2nd pick...it's only been about 50/50 that they take a QB. I could not argue against this pick. Now this left the Jets on the clock with all 4 QB's still on the board. My personal grade on the top 4 QB's is as follows. Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are tied for first, I view these two as the most all around and most likely to have a good to great career and be nearly NFL start ready. Both have questions, and I'll be full disclosure here, if Darnold wasn't from USC he'd be my #1 and Rosen my #2 but I have no faith in USC QB's, they've just produced too many bust QB's and only 1 successful or semi successful QB in Palmer. Maybe it's not fair to hold a school against a player...but...I do. Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen are tied for 2nd. If Mayfield were taller with bigger hands He'd be in the first group, but he's not...the NFL is littered with short QB's who bombed in the NFL and only a very small palm full of those who have succeeded....he's exciting, but he's a risk. Allen's concern is his short passing accuracy. If he completed 60% he'd be the easy #1 pick....but he's not. Back to the draft. The sim had the Browns offering me their 2nd round pick to move down one spot in the draft...I wasn't going to trade down in the first but in this case I said OK. Why? I'm 100% guaranteed to get one of the two QB's that I have graded equally. the Trade makes sense for the Browns IF they have a preference for a particular QB over the other 3. In this case they get the QB they want, I get the QB I want, or at least one of the two I have equally graded as top choice. AND I get a 2nd round pick back. Win for the Browns, Win for the Jets. Browns took Sam Darnold. That worked out perfectly for me, Now for the draft. Round 1 Pick 4 (CLE): Rosen, Josh, QB, UCLA (A+) I view him as the most ready to start QB in the draft. He does have an injury concern on his shoulder, but lets be fair here, QB's are always at risk of injury, especially running QB's..Rosen isn't a running QB so as far as I'm concerned the injury concern balances out. Round 2 Pick 1 (CLE): Guice, Derrius, RB, LSU (B+) This is the pick obtained from Cleveland, big win for the Jets IMHO, despite the B+ grade. He has injury concerns, so it's a risk, I could have gone O-line here but I don't have faith in the jets RB depth and Guice is a very good choice IMHO at RB. Round 3 Pick 8: Hurst, Hayden, TE, South Carolina (A) Honestly I don't think Hurst lasts this long, but he was here so I took him. Not really a need but he's a 2nd round talent, possibly late first and he fits for a more pass friendly middle of the field game and he's not a bad blocker, needs some work but he's not a liability in that department, imho. Round 4 Pick 10 (OAK): Jones, Jamarco, OT, Ohio State (A+) This was my next trade down, I don't remember what I got in return but pretty sure I used that to trade down again later. I like Jones as a developmental OT/OG. It's a 4th round pick and I like his upside despite a horrible combine. this is a case of tape over combine in my book. Round 5 Pick 20: Mataafa, Hercules, OLB, Washington State (A) I like Mutaffa as a developmental edge man. He's got question marks, but that's why he's available in the 5th. He's not a sure thing but his upside is worth a flier in the 5th. Round 6 Pick 3 (HOU): Crabtree, Zachary, OT, Oklahoma State (A+) This pick was obtained (directly or indirectly) from the 4th round Oakland trade, I'm pretty sure I had a 5th from the oakland deal and traded down since I wasn't in love with the value in the 5th. Crabtree is probably a right tackle/guard prospect. Probably grades out around the 5th round and I needed O-line to develop. He's a good developmental choice I think. Round 6 Pick 5: Scott, Jaleel, WR, New Mexico State (A+) WR is not a need on this team, but Jaleel I think is the type of receiver who could be surprise value this late in the draft as a slot or gadget receiver. There were other receives I liked more but the outside WR's on this team already has steep competition but the slot/gadget WR is a spot I think the Jets can improve in. I stocked up on 7th round picks and took a few fliers on players who if you eliminate injury history would have higher draft stock in most cases, or guys who are a little undersized but have a hard playing instinct that at least should translate to special teams. I focused on two areas the Jets are thin at imho, CB and LB, Most are high risk high reward picks with a very high risk factor but worth a flier in the 7th. Round 7 Pick 7 (MINN): Facyson, Brandon, CB, Virginia Tech (A+) He's a guy I've seen rated anywhere from 4th round all the way down to 7th. He's got size and tools but he's very inconsistent. He's most likely a backup CB or special teamer, but with coaching he could be more. Round 7 Pick 17: Nickerson, Parry, CB, Tulane (A+) This one is iffy, I really think he's gone by the 5th, but stranger things have happened. He's slight and not a good tackler, but he's a ball hawk. Probably a nickle back, possibly deep safety or slot coverage. Round 7 Pick 18 (DAL): Phillips, Darius, CB, Western Michigan (A+) Another high reward very high risk choice. He's short, he's a bit hands on incoverage, but he's got good ball skills and cover skills, but his small size and perceived lack of toughness knocks him down.. Round 7 Pick 26 (ATL): McCray, Mike, OLB, Michigan (A+) I'm mixed on him as he's not really suited to todays game, old school LB he'd probably go by the 4th round, but in today's pass happy league he's a liablity in coverage, though he can slide in to the backfield but he's not explosive. Probable backup line backer special team player with a chance to play OLB or ILB. Round 7 Pick 38 (ATL): Sam, Christian, ILB, Arizona State (A-) probably should be a 4th round pick based on tangibles but he gets knocked down for other concerns. worth a 7th round flier special teams depth pick. I'm not in love with the picks after the 4th round, I probably could have done a little better overall...but I'm also in love with the first 3 picks.
Just a few notes from the sim's draft. the Bills wound up with Baker Mayfield. the Cardinals got Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson wound up on the Giants, they traded back in to the first to grab him. The Saints took Luke Falk in the 5th (I really like him as a developmental QB to sit for a couple years). Rudolph Mason went to the Bronco's in the 2nd.
