Bowles Made the Right Decision to Go for 2

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by HomeoftheJets, Sep 10, 2017.

  1. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,481
    Likes Received:
    2,772
    Bowles is getting a lot of grief over going for 2. But even though it's intuitive to think he should have kicked an extra point and kept it to a one score game, he actually did the right thing.

    When Bowles went for 2, we were down by 2, and there was enough time left for a few more possessions. There are four cases. 1: Nobody scores for the rest of the game. 2: The Bills score and we don't (which is what happened). 3: The Bills score and then we score. 4: The Bills don't score a touchdown, but they get a field goal.

    To keep things simple, I'll assume an extra point has a 100% chance of success and a 2 point conversion has a 50% chance. In reality the numbers are more like 94% and 48%, which means my assumption is actually being generous to the extra point.

    In Case 1, by going for the extra point we lose every time by 1 point. By going for 2, half the time we lose by 2 points and half the time we go into overtime. In overtime let's assume we have a 50% chance of winning. Then by going for 2, we give ourselves a 25% chance of winning the game, as opposed to a 0% chance by kicking the extra point.

    In Case 2, we lose by several points no matter what we do, so it's irrelevant.

    In Case 3, if we go for 1, we'll be down by 8. We then score and have to go for 2. So half the time we go into overtime and half the time we lose by 2. OTOH if we go for 2, half the time we'll be down by 7. Then we score, kick the extra point, and go into overtime. The other half, we'll be down by 9, and we'll lose. So no matter what we do, we have a 50% chance of going into overtime and a 50% chance of losing.

    Actually going for 2 early might be a good thing if we fail early, there's still a very slim chance we can kick a quick field goal, recover an onside kick, and then get the game winning touchdown. Whereas if we go for 2 late and fail, we won't know 2 scores really were necessary until it's too late.

    Finally in Case 4, kicking the extra point doesn't help us because there's no difference between being down 4 (making the extra point and conceding a field goal) and being down 5 (failing the 2 point conversion and conceding a field goal). But a successful 2 point conversion allows us to kick a game tying field goal if our drive stalls.

    In conclusion, burn Bowles for punting on 4th and 7 and coaching an abysmal defense. But don't burn him for the one thing he did right.
     
    #1 HomeoftheJets, Sep 10, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2017
  2. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2006
    Messages:
    2,049
    Likes Received:
    805
    Bowles and making the right decision has never gone together.
     
    matt robinson 17 and SonofDinger like this.
  3. jetsclaps

    jetsclaps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2010
    Messages:
    1,215
    Likes Received:
    561
    I agree, but I see both sides. There's sound rationale for both decisions (unlike the punt call, which Bowles was basically saying I'd rather take our chances with an onside kick than a 4th and 7). I wish this was the biggest issue from the game.

    However, the defenses inability to stop big plays, stop the running game, and our failure to get our running game going are all miles ahead of a 2 point decision.
     
    SonofDinger likes this.
  4. LarryAlRalph

    LarryAlRalph Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2016
    Messages:
    575
    Likes Received:
    398
    Of course it was the correct decision. There's a difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. I'm not a Bowles guy, but this is a no brainer. Give the guy some credit, he called it right.

    The punt, however, is another story.
     
  5. Mogriffjr

    Mogriffjr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2010
    Messages:
    875
    Likes Received:
    436
    Some fans hate Bowles and won't give him credit when he actually does something right or aggressive. Hence in point the two point conversion try. I do agree the punt was bad though.
     
  6. Dierking

    Dierking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2006
    Messages:
    9,091
    Likes Received:
    4,365
    The Jets are terrible in short yardage and never convert two point tries. Poor call ends with poor result.
     
  7. Tamba_Trio

    Tamba_Trio Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2006
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    6
    It wouldn't have been so bad but we'd just failed on 2nd & 1 and 3rd &1 - we'd proven pretty conclusively that we couldn't move the ball one yard so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought us capable of moving it two.

    As a rule, the Jets should NEVER go for two unless it's absolutely necessary (or the one point is useless - see Buffalo last year). The decision to go for it was a transparent "I'll show them how aggressive I am this year" which I could live with IF they hadn't then reverted to type and punted to end the game.
     
  8. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    16,392
    Likes Received:
    5,675
    Jets had the momentum, I had no issue going for 2 on that play. Going for it on 4th was smart. But then he punted at the end of the game so its moot
     
    boozer32 likes this.
  9. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2013
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    377
    And this surely should have been factored into the decision. The Bills, on the other hand, had just waltzed through us twice for short yardage conversions. I don't think we looked like stopping them. If the situations had been reversed they could legitimately say we thought we would convert it. The Jets? Not so much.
     
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  10. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    1,875
    Likes Received:
    765
    I won't crush him for going for 2 on that play. It was one of those plays, that if it didnt work, he would have been killed either way. Was it 100% the right move, perhaps not. But was it some egregious mistake, I dont think so.

    Now punting with 4 minutes left down two scores, that was an egregious mistake. And that is 100% on him.
     
    IDFjet likes this.
  11. LarryAlRalph

    LarryAlRalph Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2016
    Messages:
    575
    Likes Received:
    398
    "You tried, and you failed miserably. So, the moral to the story is 'Never try.' "

    ~Homer Simpson
     
  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    2,138
    Likes Received:
    1,614
    The attempt for two - by itself - wasn't horrible. According to the "book", it could be justified, BUT...this is what exposes Bowles for the failure he is as HC. He completely ignored the reality of the situation. The Jets "O" had been anemic up to this point, They had failed to convert several short yardage situations already. BUT, they had suddenly seized momentum with the TD! If they kick the XP they're down 8 - potentially one score plus a two-point conversion at that point, AND they have momentum and renewed confidence. However, by trying the two pointer then and failing, all the momentum went out of their sails, and more seeds of doubt in their ability to do anything offensively grew. This doubt is confirmed by Bowels's own decision later to punt on 4th down with 4 minutes to go because even he didn't believe in his offense!

    But let's not overlook the entire picture: what Bowles did yesterday with his in-game decisions was exactly what he's done in his previous two seasons, thus proving that he hasn't learned anything. THAT'S the real indictment.
     
  13. JCLA

    JCLA Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2013
    Messages:
    129
    Likes Received:
    87
    This works both ways

    After scoring a touch down, the team decides to go for two to capitalize on the "seized momentum" AND have renewed confidence to drive down the field for their next drive.

    I understand everybody's resentment to Bowles and he does make some boneheaded decisions (the punt for example). That does not mean every decision he makes is wrong just because you don't like him though.
     
  14. ChrebetCrunch

    ChrebetCrunch Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2015
    Messages:
    510
    Likes Received:
    482
    This is a great point. If we had the type of offense that could punch it in, the call MIGHT have been the right decision. With our current team, the call seems even worse now.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  15. Peebag

    Peebag Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2014
    Messages:
    473
    Likes Received:
    490
    Of all the things to criticize Bowles for, the 2 point play is very low on the totem pole.
     
  16. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    2,138
    Likes Received:
    1,614
    Yes, it CAN work both ways, and often does - for a good team. But for a bad team, which the Jets are, the odds are that it will backfire, which is did. You can say that's hindsight, but I say that it's based upon knowing your team and the conditions at the time, and IMO this is Bowles's consistent failure.
     
  17. Jedi mind tricks

    Jedi mind tricks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2011
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    374
    Sure it SEEMS like the right call but then you realize he only went for 2 because punting wasn't option
     
  18. zace

    zace Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2008
    Messages:
    5,112
    Likes Received:
    1,065
    He actually coached a pretty good game. Other than the punt, it was pretty well managed. Offensive play calling was good and defense was too. Guys just weren't executing.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    Red Menace likes this.
  19. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    2,138
    Likes Received:
    1,614
    Whatever happened to adapting to what's actually happening as opposed to your game plan? If his players weren't executing why didn't he make changes in players or game plan? This to me is what makes Bowles a failure.
     
    TwoHeadedMonster likes this.
  20. TwoHeadedMonster

    TwoHeadedMonster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2012
    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    1,204
    I agree with you on Defense--way too slow to adjust.

    On Offense, I agree that swing passes and standing hand-offs weren't getting it done, but I also don't see what they could have done differently. It's easy to say they should have been throwing 60-yard bombs to space out the defense, but the reality of a slow QB behind a very poor line is that a 5-step drop is risky and a 7-step drop is suicide. Being on the receiving end of a bunch of minus 12-yard sacks wasn't going to help the Jets win this game.
     

Share This Page