Allen Vs Mayfield at the 3 pick - what the film shows

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by SolidGoldBowles, Mar 26, 2018.

?

If Rosen and Darnold are gone, who would you pick with the 3rd pick?

  1. Mayfield

    63.7%
  2. Allen

    36.3%
  1. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    I know there are a million discussions on this and it'll likely be moved so mods do as you please, but i felt this was going to be long enough to warrant it's own discussion. Before we get into the film, lets look at the tangibles

    Allen - 6-5 233lbs. Your prototypical QB size you want in the NFL. comparable to big ben and cam newton. Rocket arm. Biggest in the draft and will be one of the biggest in the NFL

    Mayfield between 6' and 6'1" 220 lbs. In the modern NFL the only successful QB of that height or smaller is russel wilson. wilson was a 3rd round pick and went to a team with a great defense and great run game. he never had to carry a team or really play from behind much. Average Arm strength, which can be tough to play on the east coast in bad weather.

    Now lets look at the film breakdowns. a few things to note, this is "highlight reel" film. Meaning you won't see consistency, you won't see bad plays, you won't see INTs or anything of the like. It's going to be the best plays the QBs can do or in other words, their ceilings. I'll break down every play form the videos on each

    Some abbreviations used
    UC (under center)
    SG (shotgun)
    PA (play action)
    RO (roll out)
    QBD (QB draw play)

    Due to post length i'll only do about the 1st 3 mins or so. I also ask people refrain form commenting until I post it all as it'll take multiple posts

    Josh Allen.
    Link:
    Length 12min
    Date 3/2018

    :)17) UC, PA, steps up in pocket, guns a 27 yard TD perfect placement between 2 DBs. play length 4 seconds
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    :)36) UC, PA, timing route on a slant pattern. throws on time. perfect accuracy. 17 yard TD.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    :)54) SG, PA, pocket collapses, rolls out to his right, jumps off one foot before going out of bounds and launches a rocket 47+ yards downfield for a TD. Very similar of a throw to the famous "wentz one" in the NFL this past season

    [​IMG]

    (1:10) SG, Pocket collapses, rolls right. Jumping throw 40ish yards and high to the back of the end zone. perfect placement and a TD
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    (1:23) SG, clean pocket, steps up to throw, perfect 50 yard TD dropped in over the head of the WR in stride. This is a big one, because as we'll see later, mayfield just doens't make throws like this
    [​IMG]

    (1:46) SG, 35 yard bullet, clean pocket, leads WR into the endzone for a TD.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    (2:06) UC, PA, RO, Stands in the face of pressure and delivers a 30 yard perfect TD pass with touch dropped in front of the WR

    [​IMG]

    (2:26) SG, PA, from the 15, avoids rush to buy time, fires into a tight window for a TD
    [​IMG]

    (2:43) UC, RO, from the 25, pump fake twice, throws against his body (all arm) 35ish yards on a rope with a perfectly placed ball for a TD
    [​IMG]

    (2:55) SG from the 47, avoids the rush, throws on the run 50 yards downfield on a rope in a perfect spot to a covered WR for the TD
    [​IMG]

    Conclusion:
    What i see from this is a QB who can buy time and make throws very few can make. Accuracy isn't a number or stat, it's the ability to place the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there, and Allen shows that very well. You can see "NFL" passes in these clips. throwing into tight windows, throwing on time, huge arm, accuracy on the run. the ability to play from under center. timing routes, and the ability to drop it in the bucket in stride to a WR with 1 step on the DB.

    Now onto post 2. Mayfield
     
  2. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    Baker Mayfield
    Link:
    Length 7:02 (it was hard finding a newer long video of his)
    Date: 12/2017

    :)00) SG, PA, Wide open TE, misses high, TE makes the catch but falls down short of the goaline. should have been a walk in TD (missing high down the field is a theme for him as you'll see)
    [​IMG]

    :)07) SG, from the 17, WR has a step on the DB, perfect time to drop it in the bucket ahead of the WR like allen does above
    [​IMG]
    He misses outside and WR has to adjust to make the TD harder then it should have been
    [​IMG]

    :)18) SG form the 5, PA, 1 read timing route, TE is wide open, completes the pass, but again high and the TE has to adjust on what should have been an easy TD
    [​IMG]
    :)24) SG, from the 4, PA, RO, hits wide open WR in the end zone in stride. perfect pass but no pressure and very easy routine play to a wide open WR
    [​IMG]
    (35) SG from the 18, PA, timing route on the slant. he throws high and behind the WR. the WR makes a nice catch and gets the TD but takes an unnecessary hit on what should have been a walk in TD.
    [​IMG]
    :)45) From the 10, SG, pocket collapses, he buys time and makes a great throw to his target in between 2 defenders in stride. Best play i've seen mayfield make but it was a under 10 yard pass on the run
    [​IMG]
    :)53) SG from the 25, 3rd and 8, clean packet, timing route back shoulder throw, solid throw and the WR makes a great play on it. no complaints here. one of his better throws
    [​IMG]
    (1:00) SG, PA, perfect pass to a wide open WR downfield on a blown coverage
    [​IMG]

    (1:12) SG form the 22, rolls out, throws downfield high again
    [​IMG]

    (1:22) SG form the 21, clean pocket, easy TD to pass to a wide open WR he underthrows
    [​IMG]
    (1:28) SG form the 12, timing route on the slant. WR wide open. throw is high and outside and WR has to adjust on what should have been an easy TD
    [​IMG]
    (1:36) SG form the 24, clean pocket, pump fake, throws downfield to an open WR. throw is behind and WR needs to adjust leading to an unnecessary hit on what should have been an easy TD
    [​IMG]

    Conclusion:
    What i see from this is a QB who can buy time and has good accuracy on shorter passes. Down the field however he struggles with ball placement often having deep balls sail on him, or under throwing his WRs. he's also benefited from having huge windows to throw into, that he won't have in the NFL. Accuracy isn't a number or stat, it's the ability to place the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there, and mayfield struggles doing that over 10 yards. While many went for TDs and completions, they weren't well thrown balls which is why you can't go by stats. You don't see many "NFL" passes in these clips. no throwing into tight windows, no film on playing from under center. timing routes, and no ability to drop it in the bucket in stride to a WR with 1 step on the DB. This is why i don't see mayfield as an accurate QB or a successful QB in the NFL

    If there is a high enough demand i can do more breakdown of each play in the clips above as well. You are all now free to comment
     
  3. Brook!

    Brook! Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    4,980
    Likes Received:
    2,833
    Solid.

    Excellent work. That’s why you are one of my favorites. I added a poll to this thread to see what people think. There is a chance both Darnold and Rosen will be gone and we will have to chose between Mayfield and Allen. Let’s make this thread ultimate Allen vs Mayfield thread.
     
    egelband and SolidGoldBowles like this.
  4. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    thanks! I think the pics above speak volumes about accuracy much more then people just yelling at each other lol
     
  5. PennyandtheJets

    PennyandtheJets Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2004
    Messages:
    10,770
    Likes Received:
    715
    The work you did in putting those posts together is very solid, but your analysis of Mayfield throwing high in some of those pictures doesn’t seem...well...accurate.

    Specifically the 2nd and 3rd Mayfield pics. He placed the ball high there because there was a DB playing under that receiver. If he puts the ball too low, it gets picked. The fact he put it where only the receiver had his hands on it, is a plus to me.
     
    HomeoftheJets, zace, K'OB and 4 others like this.
  6. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2006
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    2,272
    I think the question should be Mayfield vs Rosen for the 3rd pick.
    Looking more and more likely that Darnold and Allen go 1 and 2, and we miss out on both.

    Maybe start a separate thread/poll for that discussion?

    good work on the still shots..
     
    SolidGoldBowles likes this.
  7. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    the 2nd pic the WR has a step on the DB, the throw should be high and leading him aka a "drop in the bucket throw" he throws it way outside instead of dropping it in front of the Wr like you should, and the WR has to turn around and jump outside to make the play.
    [​IMG]
    there was nobody behind the WR to contest the throw, this was a typical seam route that should have been dropped into the back of the end zone over all the coverage. the WR ha to stop and make a big adjustment on a poorly thrown ball

    the 3rd one
    the TE was wide open off the line. nobody behind him and everyone beat. mayfield jumps in the air fading backwards for no good reason (possibly lack of height) making the throw sail and be behind the TE. He could have easily dropped it in front of him. nobody was there
    [​IMG]

    He seems to "throw to the WR" in situations he needs to "throw to a spot" you don't get more open then that in football in the red zone
     
  8. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    I could but i think the general consensus here is that most would prefer rosen if darnold isn't there. the board was much more divided after darnold/rosen. I could do a jackson one as well i guess. maybe a jackson/rosen one? that would cover everyone but darnold who seems like he'll be a brown 1st overall so not much of a point
     
  9. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2006
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    2,272
    I'm seeing more and more experts predicting Darnold and Allen the first two off the board.
    Would be interesting to see how this board feels between Rosen and Mayfield. There may not be as much consensus as you think.
     
  10. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    18,180
    Likes Received:
    7,505
    Not even a debate, the choice is Rosen. What arguments can you have in terms of Mayfield over Rosen?
     
    FJF, KurtTheJetsFan and Red Menace like this.
  11. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    it wouldn't suprise me. I wasn't very high on allen to start, but the more i look at his film, the more i like him. his pro day was excellent and he improved his mechanics a lot. plus he has the talent you can't teach, an arm that can make some pretty rare throws. At this point, i'd be pretty happy to have Allen as a jet. I'll try and do a jackson/rosen one as well. I doubt we take jackson as 3 is quite a reach for him, but it'll be nice to compare directly with the other 3
     
    SettlerDawg and KurtTheJetsFan like this.
  12. Harpua

    Harpua Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2007
    Messages:
    7,694
    Likes Received:
    392
    Health and mobility
     
    abc and BacktoQueens like this.
  13. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2006
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    2,272
    and attitude and work ethic...
     
    abc likes this.
  14. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    18,180
    Likes Received:
    7,505
    Mayfield has 2 concussions as well. Rosen is better in terms of progressions and running the offense.

    I see no pros to taking Mayfield over Rosen.
     
    SolidGoldBowles likes this.
  15. Brook!

    Brook! Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    4,980
    Likes Received:
    2,833
    Somebody start a Rosen vs Mayfield thread please and add a poll. Leave this thread for Allen vs Mayfield discussion. :)
     
  16. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    3,076
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    lol ok give me a bit
     
  17. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2016
    Messages:
    3,097
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Everyone knows Allen's highlight reel is more impressive than Mayfield's. It's everything else that's the problem.
     
  18. abc

    abc Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2017
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    214
    I see a qb who doesn't read defenses well, who fails to anticipate the receiver, who's accuracy is suspect at best & who will not be at all good in the NFL.
     
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  19. abc

    abc Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2017
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    214
    what!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hahahahahaha
     
  20. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    42,806
    Likes Received:
    7,891
    He means the garbage throws that don't make the highlight reel, among other things.
     

Share This Page