QB options for Jets (Merged Thread)

Ben Had · 01-01-2013, 10:07 AM

One of these should be there at 9.

Geno Smith
Matt Barkley
Tyler Willson

Do you think Rex will want one?

Harpua · 01-01-2013, 10:12 AM

great topic that may or may not have been discussed in the draft forum... ... for months ....

TNJet · 01-01-2013, 10:13 AM

No to present and future QBs from USC.

Br4dw4y5ux · 01-01-2013, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Had

One of these should be there at 9.

Geno Smith
Matt Barkley
Tyler Willson

Do you think Rex will want one?

Does it matter? He's not going to have much pull with the new GM. The question is whether Woody sits back and lets the new GM do his job or whether he can't imagine a season in which the Jets have no QB jersey to sell that anybody wants. Getting the QB decision right is the key thing in the Jets rebuild. Taking a guy just because you have to sell jerseys is going to be a killer if that is what it comes down to.

BeastBeach · 01-01-2013, 10:14 AM

Mike Glennon is another name I've seen mocked to the Jets

cromartiecove31 · 01-01-2013, 10:17 AM

No, we aren't reaching for a top 10 QB

LAJet · 01-01-2013, 10:23 AM

Hell no to barkley. It is another sanchez/cassel/linart/palmer/fill in the usc blank

xxedge72x · 01-01-2013, 10:32 AM

Sanchez was more impressive coming into the draft than Barkley is now. Pass.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

Br4dw4y5ux · 01-01-2013, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxedge72x

Sanchez was more impressive coming into the draft than Barkley is now. Pass.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

None of the QB's this year stand out from the others. Geno Smith is on top by default.

That said, the last time we had this situation Alex Smith went on the 1 and then deep in the 1st round the Packers got Aaron Rodgers. They had the luxury of sitting on him for three years though. Put rookie Aaron Rodgers on the 2013 Jets and starting and he's a career backup in the making.

The Waterboy · 01-01-2013, 10:36 AM

If they can drop to later in the second round and pick up an extra pick I would like to see them take a shot on someone like Nassib. I just can't see using the first round on any QB out there.

hornblower · 01-01-2013, 10:37 AM

No one will take the GM job unless he has full authority to remake the franchise. Rex will not have the call.

YOYOYO · 01-01-2013, 10:51 AM

Throw Glennon in that mix but at 9 any of them are a big reach. If you wait till the 2nd or 3rd you may find a QB just as good.

Greenday4537 · 01-01-2013, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Had

One of these should be there at 9.

Geno Smith
Matt Barkley
Tyler Willson

Do you think Rex will want one?

Could you list a valid option at #9? Cause none of those guys are good enough.

ConcordeChops · 01-01-2013, 11:24 AM

Trade down with an idiot team reaching for one of these "franchise" QBs.

mezzavo · 01-01-2013, 11:30 AM

There is NOT a QB worth taking in the top 20 this year...let alone top 10.

Ben Had · 01-01-2013, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greenday4537

Could you list a valid option at #9? Cause none of those guys are good enough.

I think Geno Smith will be a good pro. It will be interesting to see if he's still there at 9.

GoldenShowers · 01-01-2013, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Had

I think Geno Smith will be a good pro. It will be interesting to see if he's still there at 9.

Thank god you aren't in scouting in that case!

JetsFan · 01-01-2013, 11:39 AM

USC QB! Hell No!

I say no QB at #9! Second round at earliest.

Br4dw4y5ux · 01-01-2013, 11:52 AM

So here's the cloud of guys you could reasonably take in the top 10:

Geno Smith
Matt Barkley
Tyler Wilson (Ryan Tannehill)

Here's the group that could go mid 1st to early 2nd:

Aaron Murray (if he declares)
Mike Glennon
Landry Jones
Tyler Bray

Here's the group that will go later than that:

Ryan Nassib
Zac Dysert
EJ Manuel
Collin Klein

There will be more QB's selected than the 10 above. The NFL has selected at least 11 QB's in every draft since 2007.

Ok, so here's what we know about the guys above for sure:

1. Nobody stands out as a must-take franchise QB in the top 3 picks of the draft.

Geno Smith is closest but he's not a build the franchise around him type of prospect. Other than him nobody projects as a sure top 10 QB. There's no crowd at the top and if Barkley or Wilson is chosen in the top 10 there will be fans of the choosing team very disappointed by the pick.

2. The top 7 QB's are almost impossible to separate in terms of their ability to be elite.

Nobody will be surprised if Landry Jones is tearing up the NFL in 4 years while Geno Smith is busting out of the league. You'd rather have Smith than Jones but the X factor that says Smith is greater than Jones just doesn't exist.

3. There will be a big market for QB's in the draft and so guys who sell well will find takers early on.

The teams in need of a QB moving forward are #1 KC, #2 Jax, #4 Philly, #7 Arizona, #8 Buffalo, #9 Jets. You might see Dallas take a QB at 18 and maybe Denver on their pick. There's a big market out there for QB's this year and a lot of candidates who clump together kind of indistinguishably.

Given the situation the Jets won't likely find a strong QB candidate on the 40 or so. Too many teams that need a QB will either have pulled one out of the pile before that or passed twice on what is left.

So to get a good QB on the 40 the Jets basically have to get very lucky and find the guy everybody else passed on twice. The odds on this happening are very, very low. it's probably a 10% chance that a QB taken on the 40 is not a bust as a starting QB given the dynamics in play.

That leaves the 1st round, where the Jets will have some choices that have not been scorned by the QB-needy teams in the draft, and late picks to try to get really lucky.

ajax · 01-01-2013, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ConcordeChops

Trade down with an idiot team reaching for one of these "franchise" QBs.

I'm hoping all those QB are available when Jets draft. Nothing like QB left on the board to make teams behind you eager to trade up.

01-01-2013, 10:13 AM	#3
TNJet Totally Addicted Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tennessee Posts: 2,045 vCash: 25	No to present and future QBs from USC. __________________ So long sanchez, Hello Geno.

01-01-2013, 10:17 AM	#6
cromartiecove31 TheGangGreen.com Regular Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 250 vCash: 500	No, we aren't reaching for a top 10 QB __________________

01-01-2013, 11:30 AM	#15
mezzavo Totally Addicted Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: California Posts: 2,004 vCash: 2000	There is NOT a QB worth taking in the top 20 this year...let alone top 10. __________________ Grab the bull by the horns or you might find a horn stuck you know where! www.garnetglobal.com www.trebleradiorockshop.com www.sandrasrunway.com www.trebleradiorocks.com

01-01-2013, 11:39 AM	#18
JetsFan Totally Addicted Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: North of Cincinnati Posts: 5,173 vCash: 1200	USC QB! Hell No! I say no QB at #9! Second round at earliest. __________________ The NFL is my church on Sunday, and Football is my religion. My home is the AFC East and my blood is Jets Green.

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01-01-2013, 10:07 AM	#1
Ben Had TheGangGreen.com Regular Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 466 vCash: 200	QB options for Jets (Merged Thread) One of these should be there at 9. Geno Smith Matt Barkley Tyler Willson Do you think Rex will want one?

01-01-2013, 10:14 AM	#5
BeastBeach Totally Addicted Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,452 vCash: 452	Mike Glennon is another name I've seen mocked to the Jets

01-01-2013, 10:23 AM	#7
LAJet Totally Addicted Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 1,017 vCash: 2123	Hell no to barkley. It is another sanchez/cassel/linart/palmer/fill in the usc blank __________________ Looking for the promised land

01-01-2013, 10:32 AM	#8
xxedge72x Totally Addicted Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 8,356 vCash: 25	Sanchez was more impressive coming into the draft than Barkley is now. Pass. Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 __________________ 2004 Football Pool Champion Thanks to Rambo13 for the awesome sig pic!

01-01-2013, 10:36 AM	#10
The Waterboy Totally Addicted Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Weeki Wachee,FL Posts: 1,085 vCash: 25	If they can drop to later in the second round and pick up an extra pick I would like to see them take a shot on someone like Nassib. I just can't see using the first round on any QB out there.

01-01-2013, 10:37 AM	#11
hornblower Bench Warmer Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Eastchester Posts: 92 vCash: 500	No one will take the GM job unless he has full authority to remake the franchise. Rex will not have the call.

01-01-2013, 10:51 AM	#12
YOYOYO TheGangGreen.com Fanatic Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 596 vCash: 2050	Throw Glennon in that mix but at 9 any of them are a big reach. If you wait till the 2nd or 3rd you may find a QB just as good.

01-01-2013, 11:52 AM	#19
Br4dw4y5ux 2009 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 19,576 vCash: 2000	So here's the cloud of guys you could reasonably take in the top 10: Geno Smith Matt Barkley Tyler Wilson (Ryan Tannehill) Here's the group that could go mid 1st to early 2nd: Aaron Murray (if he declares) Mike Glennon Landry Jones Tyler Bray Here's the group that will go later than that: Ryan Nassib Zac Dysert EJ Manuel Collin Klein There will be more QB's selected than the 10 above. The NFL has selected at least 11 QB's in every draft since 2007. Ok, so here's what we know about the guys above for sure: 1. Nobody stands out as a must-take franchise QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. Geno Smith is closest but he's not a build the franchise around him type of prospect. Other than him nobody projects as a sure top 10 QB. There's no crowd at the top and if Barkley or Wilson is chosen in the top 10 there will be fans of the choosing team very disappointed by the pick. 2. The top 7 QB's are almost impossible to separate in terms of their ability to be elite. Nobody will be surprised if Landry Jones is tearing up the NFL in 4 years while Geno Smith is busting out of the league. You'd rather have Smith than Jones but the X factor that says Smith is greater than Jones just doesn't exist. 3. There will be a big market for QB's in the draft and so guys who sell well will find takers early on. The teams in need of a QB moving forward are #1 KC, #2 Jax, #4 Philly, #7 Arizona, #8 Buffalo, #9 Jets. You might see Dallas take a QB at 18 and maybe Denver on their pick. There's a big market out there for QB's this year and a lot of candidates who clump together kind of indistinguishably. Given the situation the Jets won't likely find a strong QB candidate on the 40 or so. Too many teams that need a QB will either have pulled one out of the pile before that or passed twice on what is left. So to get a good QB on the 40 the Jets basically have to get very lucky and find the guy everybody else passed on twice. The odds on this happening are very, very low. it's probably a 10% chance that a QB taken on the 40 is not a bust as a starting QB given the dynamics in play. That leaves the 1st round, where the Jets will have some choices that have not been scorned by the QB-needy teams in the draft, and late picks to try to get really lucky.