[hwismer]

Lack of PT costs Tebow shot at big bucks

November, 21, 2012

7:13

PM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com


Conspiracy theorists will have fun with this.

Jets backup QB Tim Tebow has a playing-time incentive in his contract that triggers huge salary increases in 2013 and 2014, fueling speculation the team has purposely limited his snaps on offense to avoid a big salary-cap hit next season.

Based on his rookie contract, which he signed with the Broncos in 2010, Tebow receives a $5 million increase next season and a $6.25 million bump in 2014 if he plays in at least 55 percent of the offensive plays in two of his first three seasons, according to league sources.

Tebow reached the 55 percent mark last season, appearing in 76 percent of the Broncos' plays as an 11-game starter. This year, he has participated in a total of only 57 plays (9 percent), meaning it's a mathematical impossibility he will reach the 55 percent threshold.

Tebow's lack of playing time has been an ongoing theme, with many wondering why he hasn't played more in the Wildcat. Some even questioned why he didn't get mop-up duty in blowout losses to the 49ers and Dolphins. Others believe he should've replaced Mark Sanchez weeks ago.

Before the season, Rex Ryan said Tebow could play up to 20 plays per game. If he were averaging, say, 15 per game, he'd be up to 150 plays. Throw in some mop-up duty, and he'd have roughly 170 plays. He'd need an estimated 550 to hit the incentive, which means he'd have to start about six games. The Jets have six games left. Obviously, that ship has sailed -- but not long ago.

A team spokesman told ESPNNewYork.com that Tebow's incentive clause, brought to light by nyjetscap.com, has had no bearing on his playing time.

As of now, the Jets face serious cap problems for next season. If Tebow had hit the incentive, his 2013 cap figure would have ballooned from $2.6 million to $7.6 million. There's no way the Jets could afford that, considering they owe Sanchez $8.25 million in guaranteed money in 2013.

Tebow still could cash in with a $6.25 million salary increase for 2014. To do that, he'd have to participate in 70 percent of the plays next season.

[Awesomo 3000]

I think it was true with the Orton-Tebow situation last year. After they failed miserably at trading Orton, they were stuck with his price tag, and he looked better in practice anyway. Might as well play him.

I really doubt that's the primary reason the Jets are doing that this year. It's the type of reason that would only come up if they were on the fence about the guy. Which is very possible, considering the sucktitude of sanchez. Any other backup would've been out there by now, even if was just 1 or 1/2 game to give the starter a reality check. So there is something strange going on...

[Cellar-door]

I really think this is being overblown. If it were merely contract then Tebow would start this week since he can't make his incentive now.

Far more likely is that they were telling the truth all along and don't think of him as a possible starter at QB. The planned to use him more as a wildcat QB, and WR, but the offense struggled and they are trying to keep rhythm which reduces his snaps (as does the fact that the offense is terrible so there are less snaps to go around) and he can't catch or run routes so playing WR isn't happening.

[DirtySanchez]

Makes a lot of sense, there is no way the jets could tie up all that money along with Sanchez's abortion of a contract.

[Greenday4537]

Originally Posted by Cellar-door

I really think this is being overblown. If it were merely contract then Tebow would start this week since he can't make his incentive now.

Even though he has a few broken ribs? I doubt it.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by Greenday4537

Even though he has a few broken ribs? I doubt it.

I don't think he would have started anyway. The jets have shown no interrest in starting him before, and they could probably have done it a couple weeks ago and not worried about him hitting 55% of the plays. (Especially if he spends the first 57 minutes of most of the games punting the ball after 3 or 4 plays like he did in Denver last year when he led the league in three and outs.

...and who would care if he DID hit that mark if the Jets were winning? The owner seems to love him.

Personally, I think people are grasping at straws as to why he isn't starting. The elephant in the room is that he just isn't very good a QB. That can't be right, can it?

[Awesomo 3000]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

I don't think he would have started anyway. The jets have shown no interrest in starting him before, and they could probably have done it a couple weeks ago and not worried about him hitting 55% of the plays. (Especially if he spends the first 57 minutes of most of the games punting the ball after 3 or 4 plays like he did in Denver last year when he led the league in three and outs.

...and who would care if he DID hit that mark if the Jets were winning? The owner seems to love him.

Personally, I think people are grasping at straws as to why he isn't starting. The elephant in the room is that he just isn't very good a QB. That can't be right, can it?

The contract isn't what's keeping him from starting. It's just the last in line for reasons they wouldn't want to play Tebow.

However, the Jets really are going into cap hell, so it's not unreasonable to think they'd very much want to avoid those extra millions.

And the elephant in the room is that Rex has a horrible horrible obsession with starting Sanchez no matter what. At this point McElroy should've gone in if he didn't want to play Tebow. Keeping Sanchez out there is inexcusable.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by Awesomo 3000

The contract isn't what's keeping him from starting. It's just the last in line for reasons they wouldn't want to play Tebow.

However, the Jets really are going into cap hell, so it's not unreasonable to think they'd very much want to avoid those extra millions.

And the elephant in the room is that Rex has a horrible horrible obsession with starting Sanchez no matter what. At this point McElroy should've gone in if he didn't want to play Tebow. Keeping Sanchez out there is inexcusable.

Unless Rex thought he would be worse off starting either of them.

I know you guys are frustrated with Sanchez, and you just want to see somethign different out there, but it CAN get worse. Start the guy that can't hit the broad side of a barn or the other guy who may not be ready to be thrwon into the fire yet and you will see.

This, "horrible" obsession with starting Sanchez could be that he's still the best QB on the roster. Maybe that obsession is on your part insisting on putting the punt protector in at QB?

[DirtySanchez]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

...and who would care if he DID hit that mark if the Jets were winning? The owner seems to love him.

The Jets can not afford Tebows contract escalator along with Sanchez. Odds are Tanny didnt read the contract right (remember that fiasco?)

[DirtySanchez]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

I know you guys are frustrated with Sanchez, and you just want to see somethign different out there, but it CAN get worse. Start the guy that can't hit the broad side of a barn or the other guy who may not be ready to be thrwon into the fire yet and you will see.

Tebow in his 16 starts generated more yardage than Sanchez ever has in a season and he is less turnover prone. Tebow is a better QB than Sanchez. He may not throw the ball better but he makes up for it in rush yards and less turnovers.

There may be 30-35 QBs in the NFL better than Tebow but Sanchez isnt one of them.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by DirtySanchez

Tebow in his 16 starts generated more yardage than Sanchez ever has in a season and he is less turnover prone. Tebow is a better QB than Sanchez. He may not throw the ball better but he makes up for it in rush yards and less turnovers.

There may be 30-35 QBs in the NFL better than Tebow but Sanchez isnt one of them.

Tebow also had a better team around him than what Sanchez has right now, and most of that yardage he racked up was before most of the league had some video on him and started stacking the box. His numbers were pretty horrid across the board as the season went further. Plus, he had Mcgahee behind him too, and it was obvious when he was in or out of the lineup. The Jets don't appear to have that type of player in the backfield.

Even though he was good for a fumble down the stretch, he was less turnover prone because the coaching staff didn't trust his throwing. Hence, the rare pass play called. When he did throw it, it went straight into the dirt. Soe he was less turnover prone because it is uncatchable for receivers and defenders alike when the ball is either a dirt missile at peoples ankes or being shot putted into the 10th row.

That doesn't make him a better QB than Sanchez. Punting the ball all day might be easier on the eyes when looking at the turnover stat, but it is still giving the ball away without being a serious threat to do anything with it. Most defensive coordinators I bet would love holding a team to three and outs most of the day. So what if they didn't get an interception here and there? Tebow's inability to move the chains REALLY REALLY REALLY hurt the Broncos offense. I think it's silly to think that would change with the Jets, even in you are done with looking at Sanchez.

[DirtySanchez]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

Tebow's inability to move the chains REALLY REALLY REALLY hurt the Broncos offense. I think it's silly to think that would change with the Jets, even in you are done with looking at Sanchez.

He moves the ball better than sanchez. 3700 yards in 16 starts. Im not saying its good. Just better than Sanchez.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by DirtySanchez

He moves the ball better than sanchez. 3700 yards in 16 starts. Im not saying its good. Just better than Sanchez.

Still not sure about that one. I look at the team built around Sanchez and wonder how a QB with less completion percentage than Sanchez, and a team obviously not built for the run option is going to be more productive.

Not sure where you are getting 3700 yards. Most stat sheets have him at a total of just 1,729 passing yards last year for a total of 2,383 in nearly a seasons worth of starts. That's pretty piss poor. Even if you bought into the idea that his rushing makes up for a lot of it, we're only talking about an additional 800 yards. That brings it to just under 3,200. (or a hair under 200 yards per game.... and much of that WITH the element of surprise.) Okay, I suppose.

but then I consider this....

Like I said, most of Tebow's good yards came early after the switch. I truly think him starting will look more like it did down the 1-4 stretch at the end when he got maybe a quarter of the rushing yards, and around 127 passing yards a game. Since the league figured out that he can't pass, and he gets around blitzes (which is what teams tried to do early when he'd find a hole and run for it for big yardage,) they ran containment schemes instead. Most didn't think he would beat them with his arm, and only 2 teams took that a bit too far.

For the most part, he was stuck in mud. I'm telling ya as someone who has seen Tebow play every down last year... he's gonna look a lot more like he did in the second half of his starts overall than he did in his first. The league knows what he can, and more importantly, what he can't do.

Element of surprise is gone, my friend. That is... until he figures out how to pass.

Wanna play him just to get rid of Sanchez, knock yourself out. Just seems like cutting one's nose off to spite their face.

[Demosthenes9]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

Still not sure about that one. I look at the team built around Sanchez and wonder how a QB with less completion percentage than Sanchez, and a team obviously not built for the run option is going to be more productive.

Not sure where you are getting 3700 yards. Most stat sheets have him at a total of just 1,729 passing yards last year for a total of 2,383 in nearly a seasons worth of starts. That's pretty piss poor. Even if you bought into the idea that his rushing makes up for a lot of it, we're only talking about an additional 800 yards. That brings it to just under 3,200. (or a hair under 200 yards per game.... and much of that WITH the element of surprise.) Okay, I suppose.

but then I consider this....

Like I said, most of Tebow's good yards came early after the switch. I truly think him starting will look more like it did down the 1-4 stretch at the end when he got maybe a quarter of the rushing yards, and around 127 passing yards a game. Since the league figured out that he can't pass, and he gets around blitzes (which is what teams tried to do early when he'd find a hole and run for it for big yardage,) they ran containment schemes instead. Most didn't think he would beat them with his arm, and only 2 teams took that a bit too far.

For the most part, he was stuck in mud. I'm telling ya as someone who has seen Tebow play every down last year... he's gonna look a lot more like he did in the second half of his starts overall than he did in his first. The league knows what he can, and more importantly, what he can't do.

Element of surprise is gone, my friend. That is... until he figures out how to pass.

Wanna play him just to get rid of Sanchez, knock yourself out. Just seems like cutting one's nose off to spite their face.

The yards are easy to account for, you add up his passing yards and rushing yards from his 16 starts.


If you saw nearly every one of his snaps last year, quite a few things should have been apparent. First, Denver didn't actually run the option that much. Rather, a large percentage of his snaps were from under center.

Second, you should have noticed that Denver didn't pass that much in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd quarters.

Third, you should have noticed that in the 4th quarter, when they found themselves behind, McCoy would throw out the "gameplan", put Tebow in the shotgun with 3 or 4 receivers spread out wide and THAT is when Denver did most of their damage to other teams, and not coincidentally, Tebow's passing numbers improved.

Small wonder. The kid had spent his entire college career working out of the gun, it's something that he was already very good at.

Let's assume, for sake of argument, that Tebow still isn't very good at taking snaps from under center. Fine, put him in the shotgun and develop a running game that works from the shotgun. If need be, swipe Urban Meyer's playbook and go from there. If you don't want to have Tebow running Option plays, then adapt the blocking schemes and remove the option component.

[Demosthenes9]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

Unless Rex thought he would be worse off starting either of them.

I know you guys are frustrated with Sanchez, and you just want to see somethign different out there, but it CAN get worse. Start the guy that can't hit the broad side of a barn or the other guy who may not be ready to be thrwon into the fire yet and you will see.

This, "horrible" obsession with starting Sanchez could be that he's still the best QB on the roster. Maybe that obsession is on your part insisting on putting the punt protector in at QB?

Ummm, no, it can't get worse cause when you boil it down, what matters are the numbers in the WIN and LOSS column.

If Tebow or McElroy come in and lose a game, it doesn't count twice. It's still 1 loss which is about what we expect right now with Sanchez starting.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by Demosthenes9

Ummm, no, it can't get worse cause when you boil it down, what matters are the numbers in the WIN and LOSS column.

If Tebow or McElroy come in and lose a game, it doesn't count twice. It's still 1 loss which is about what we expect right now with Sanchez starting.

So replace Sanchez with a guy that even lessens the likelihood you get aa win and a loss is a good idea because they are losing anyway?

[NewEnglandJet]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

So replace Sanchez with a guy that even lessens the likelihood you get aa win and a loss is a good idea because they are losing anyway?

Obviously Tebow gives the best chance to win a Super Bowl.

[Concerned_Citizen]

Originally Posted by Demosthenes9

Third, you should have noticed that in the 4th quarter, when they found themselves behind, McCoy would throw out the "gameplan", put Tebow in the shotgun with 3 or 4 receivers spread out wide and THAT is when Denver did most of their damage to other teams, and not coincidentally, Tebow's passing numbers improved.

I did notice, but I saw something else too. Teams went into more of a prevent approach and abandoned what worked all day... namely containing him and making him beat them with his arm. It opened him up to run a bit, and think a bit to find open guys underneath. Just about every QB in the league gets better under those circumstances.

Not coincidently, ONE team stayed true to what worked all day, and they beat the Broncos 7 to 3. That last comeback drive ended as quickly as all the others... it didn't matter if they put Tebow in the shotgun or not.

[Demosthenes9]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

I did notice, but I saw something else too. Teams went into more of a prevent approach and abandoned what worked all day... namely containing him and making him beat them with his arm. It opened him up to run a bit, and think a bit to find open guys underneath. Just about every QB in the league gets better under those circumstances.

Not coincidently, ONE team stayed true to what worked all day, and they beat the Broncos 7 to 3. That last comeback drive ended as quickly as all the others... it didn't matter if they put Tebow in the shotgun or not.

Don't think Denver ever went to the spread against KC. As for the other games, you going to claim that the Jets went into a prevent approach ? What happened with Pettine and Ryan is that they had to decide whether to stay heavy and defend the run, or go with nickel/dime to try and cover the receivers.

It's something that many of us screamed about last year when talking about McCoy.

If you watched the Bears game, they did go to a softer D initially, but after Denver got the first score, the Bears came back with their regular old Tampa 2 and they still couldn't stop Denver from scoring again.

[Demosthenes9]

Originally Posted by Concerned_Citizen

So replace Sanchez with a guy that even lessens the likelihood you get aa win and a loss is a good idea because they are losing anyway?

You replace Sanchez with Tebow or McElroy to see what either of them can do in a live game situation as you really don't know at this point what either are capable of.

If you will, it's a "reverse Sanchez". In practice, while wearing a Red jersey, Sanchez looks great. Thing is, he knows that no one can hit him in practice so he doesn't go into "panic mode".

Tebow is just the opposite. In practice, you don't really see what kind of effect he has as it's considered a sack if the defense gets close or touches him. In a game situation, he's a lot harder to take down that Sanchez is. He scrambles and makes plays.