|11-21-2012, 08:29 PM||#1|
Join Date: Dec 2006
First off, if this fits better in another forum please feel free to move it (as if you need my permission ). But, since it focuses on draft related issues I thought this might be the best place for it.
This is going to go in several stages. But the first stage is to determine relative value of every player under contract for next season that could be traded. Some players will have no value, for example Jason Smith has a 12 million dollar salary if he makes roster=0 value.
Each contracted player will be given a point total based off of the draft slot value chart To view links in this forum your post count must be 10 or greater. Your post count is 0 momentarily. . Players with zero points don't need to be listed.
Lowest value allowed is 0.4 (equal to the 256th pick). Highest possible value =3000, in theory anyways though no player will get that value (and yes this includes Revis). The consensus values will be used in the second step of the "game". Lets keep it as real as possible folks, in other words, when determining value for a player ask yourself if you were the other team would you find the value fair. And try to be objective, just because you think a player is great does't mean he's worth a ton of points, and just because you think he sucks doesn't mean he's worth 0 points. Remember there are GM's out there who value different types of players for different schemes. We run a lot of man to man so some players suck with us, but a team that runs a lot of zones that player might excel in.
The future portions of the game will be various draft scenarios, but to do that we need to establish a base value for our contracted players should people decide to excute trades for draft picks. Again only players that are under contract for the 2013 season. If they're not under contract you can't trade them :P For contract information we'll rely on To view links in this forum your post count must be 10 or greater. Your post count is 0 momentarily. for our numbers, they may not be 100% accurate but close enough for our purposes.
I haven't thought about my values yet, just thought of doing this for fun and figured others might like to as well. Then again I may be the only one nerdy enough to enjoy things like this
Last edited by 1968jetsfan; 11-21-2012 at 08:33 PM. Reason: added highest value
|11-21-2012, 08:44 PM||#2|
Join Date: Dec 2006
When we start doing scenarios, assuming enough people are interested. We'll be using some standard rules for all scenarios.
1) No trading players for other players.
2) Free agent signings are allowed, presuming they fit under the cap restrictions. (not going to be draconian about the numbers, but they have to be close)
3) players under contract may be traded straight up for draft picks, or included with draft picks to move up or to add value to the total trade to even it up.
the rest of the rules will vary some what depending on the scenario.
the Scenarios currently in mind are.
1) Blow it up. Challenge will be to set the team on a course for a 2-3 year rebuilding period. Gain as many draft picks as possible. Draft slot =8
2) We're competitive. No trading of currently valuable players. Draft slot =15
3) Move Over Joe!, we made the Bowl! Draft slot #32. Pretty much just a straight up draft, only draft picks may be traded to move up or down. No player trades.
Each stage will also require your picks for the mock attached to the scenario.
|11-22-2012, 11:59 AM||#3|
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Caught in the middle of Tebowmania
Im only going to name players who I think have a chance of being traded (for example, Im not going to include Wilkerson, Coples, Hill, ect). Im not the greatest with trade value, but Im going to go based on what I think another team would give up and leave all bias alone; Ill take into account contract, age, play and off field issues.
Antonio Cromartie - 500 - Playing like the best CB in the league. Contracts isnt horrible and well deserved. He's still in his prime and has quieted down off field.
Mike Devito - 30 - Solid player that works hard. Still relatively young and is a great locker room guy.
D'Brickashaw Fergison - 400 - Not young anymore but a good LT. With passrushers being the freak or natures that they are, LT's are highly coveted.
Davis Harris - 80 - Really overrated by fans, but is still a good LB. He is being way overpaid and isnt really young anymore. 80 might be a little generous.
Nick Mangold - 450 - Top 3 Center in the league and is hindered by the two shitty guards next to him. Centers can play well into their 30's and I fully expect Mangold to.
Sione Pouha - 35 - His play has dropped off a lot but that may be due to his health. His age may be catching up to him, but a NT needy team may want to take a chance.
Darrelle Revis - 1500 - He is still the best defensive player in the NFL and ACL injuries are easier to come back from. He has plenty of time to recover and is still young.
Mark Sanchez - 250 - He has regressed, but I really think that a team with an offensive minded coach and a good amount weapons could allow him to succeed. A change of scenery might do him good also.
Kyle Wilson - 50 - Hasnt lived up to the 1st round pick by any means, but he's decent. He still struggles locating the ball but has some trade value.
Basically, the only players I see with some real value (as we all would expect) are Revis, Brick, Mangold and Cromartie. Who knows with Sanchez anymore... Realistically, I dont see us trading Brick or Mangold.
TGG's 7 Round Mock Draft:
Tennessee Titans GM
San Francisco 49ers GM
New England Patriots GM
|11-23-2012, 06:45 AM||#4|
Join Date: Dec 2006
I haven't finished up my chart yet, but good chart over all. I think Sanchez is way lower than that, if for no other reason due to his salary amount next year compared to the production and risk.
Harris is really tough to call, he's only over rated in our type of defense. He's, as one site called him, a dinosaur in a mammal world. As a runs stopping ILB he's still one of the best, but in this league being so pass oriented he winds up in coverage way more than he should in our scheme. To most teams your value is about right I think, but there are certain teams that would use him to his strength where he would probably have a little more value. The Ravens for example would make good use of Harris's skills, so would the Steelers. But really hard to argue with your numbers...
On a side note, it's really looking like real life may be a blow it up scenario.
|11-23-2012, 11:26 AM||#5|
Join Date: Dec 2006
Additonally Tebow probably has some trade value if sent to the proper team. Though admittedly that is a very limited number of teams. He could probably still get a 5th rounder from Jacksonville, considering they were willing to do a 4th last year, and they may still be willing to offer that for him (he'd be a big ticket seller for them) I don't think him being a Jet this year has hurt his value since he's barely seen the field.
|11-23-2012, 03:53 PM||#6|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Sanchez should be 0, he has a huge contract no one would ever trade for him
Cromartie is way too high to me, maybe something in the 250 range seems more likely.
|11-23-2012, 11:33 PM||#7|
Join Date: Dec 2006
If Revis wasn't injured he'd probably be worth 2 firsts (I mean a second tier QB Carson Palmer got 2 firsts) and if Revis Checks in his physical next year out you could argue that he's worth 3500-4000 points (a first and 3rd or 4th)
|11-25-2012, 06:43 AM||#8|
Join Date: Dec 2006
Sanchez=0 for his production and his salary a team would have to pick up, not to mention the massive cap hit the Jets would take, there is no way to move him at all in 2013. 2014, that's a different matter.
Cromartie I pretty much had him pegged as being worth a second round pick given his contract is reasonable, he's been one of the best corners this year and has had success in the past, plus he's in his prime, so 500-550 is about right I think.
Harris is an odd beast to try to grade out. To most teams he's probably worth a 3rd or 4th, but there are a couple teams that would use him properly that he'd be worth a high third or low second to. Harris excels when his focus is the run, but he's exposed when they put in in for coverage, which the Jets do all to often. He's best used in a scheme where he keys off the run and after determining it's not a run just heading to the QB, not that he'll rack up sacks but it's another body the O-line has to block and puts more pressure on the O-line. So in Harris's case his value, imho, all depends on who he's traded to. AKA probably best suited to playing in a 4-3 defense. So for most teams I agree with the 80 points, but to a couple teams 260 or so.
Revis, is another special case. Take for example a slightly past his prime, never top 5 QB who hadn't even played in at least 1/2 a season, Palmer, got a first rounder and a conditional 2nd rounder that could become a first rounder. Honestly I think if Revis comes back healthy he would potentially be worth more, at least a 1st in 2013 and first in 2014 with a 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2013. It's hard to gauge because players of Revis's level just don't get traded too often when they are in their prime and don't have off field or clubhouse issues attached to them.
But that said there are only two reasons a team trades a player like Revis. 1) they don't think they can resign him or B) their going in to a rebuilding mode and Revis wouldn't want to stay with a rebuilding team.
Tebow. Tebow is like Harris, his value all depends on where you are trading him to. But at most it's worth a 4th rounder (which was the second highest offer behind the Jets offer). About the only team that might take him for a 4th or 5th would be Jacksonville, the other team that was chasing Tebow. so if traded to Jacksonville he'd probably be worth a fourth or maybe 5th, Everyone else about 25 points.
Holmes has some value, if packaged right but probably only 5th round value due to his contract, but a lot teams think his production fall off since coming to the Jets is due to Sanchez being his QB. So putting holmes at about 30 points, double that if a team is desperate for a proven WR.
There are a number of bit players, who are worth 5 or 10 points (basically players that can be used to balance out trades but in and of themselves are insignificant, aka 6th or 7th round point values. You can't lump 10 of them together to get 100 points of value, but you could use one of them to make up a 5-10 point deficiet in a trade value.
|11-25-2012, 07:31 AM||#10|
Join Date: Dec 2006
Forgot to mention, you also need to list how much you sign free agents for, and you must list players that you cut (as well as the cap hit for cutting them) and an estimate of the cap hit for trading a player. NY jets cap is a good site for that and what we'll base numbers off of!
|11-25-2012, 08:34 AM||#11|
Join Date: Dec 2006
To Clarify the Revis rule a little bit.
IF you decide to trade Revis you can trade him for a value of 1650 + a 2014 first round pick or you can trade him for an all in 2013 draft, but that 3000 can not be used for a top 5 pick. If you want to use him for a top 5 pick then assume his value is 1500 + 50% of the difference between the cost of a 6th pick and the pick position you are trading to. For example #1 slot is worth 3,000 so if you were trading Revis for a #1 Revis would be worth 2,225 points.
Also in thinking about the Revis rule, if your trading in to slots 6-10, and not including a 1st round pick as part of the trade, then Revis value is only 2,200 points. This is to prevent Revis from getting a teams #1, #2 and #4 picks and being in the top 10. So keep a trade including Revis reasonable ;)
One additonal balance rule being added, because I forgot to include it. No trading team will ever trade more than 3 picks to you in a deal. Nor with they trade their first 3 rounds to you as part of any trade down. In other words you could trade for a teams 1st 2nd and 4th, but not their 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Exception to this rule, if a trade is way out of balance then they will trade a 4th pick but only if that 4th pick is a 6th or 7th rounder.
Last edited by 1968jetsfan; 11-25-2012 at 08:47 AM.
|12-04-2012, 07:44 PM||#12|
Join Date: Dec 2006
Moved this from a thread I had put it in to originally without thinking, aka I forgot about this thread. And considering the mockery mock I did it probably fits well in to this thread.
I won't start my own thread. And before you laugh, there are two versions.
Two versions here, the first is a little bit of fun with some trades involved and explained. The second version at the bottom is a straight draft with no trades based on how players fell in the draft simulation program (like I explain later, it's not a perfect process, but at least it eliminated personal bias)
Pre draft moves
Jets cut Jason Smith Dead Money (0)
Jets Cut Calvin Pace Dead Money (3M)
Jets cut Bart Scott Dead Money (1.5M)
Jets Cut Sione Pouha Dead Money (2.33M) Didn't want to cut him but couldn't afford his 6.1m Cap hit)
Jets cut Eric Smith Dead Money (0)
Jets trade Derrelle Revis Dead Money (9M)
jets trade Tim Tebow Dead money (0)
Jets Sign Keller 4 year deal structured to give a cap in first year of 4M
Jets sign Laroy Landry 3 year deal, slightly back loaded to give cap room this year 2M cap first year
Jets sign Mike DeVito 1 Year deal 2.5M
Jets sign Matt Slauson 1 year deal 1M
Jets sign Nick Folk 2 year deal 1.85M
Jets sign Chaz Schilens .8M
Jets sign Austin Howard .8M
Pre Draft roster
QB Mark Sanchez 12.9M
QB Greg McElroy .57M
RB Joe McKnight .7M
RB Bilial Powell .655M
TE Dustin Keller 6M
TE Josh Baker .555M
TE Konrad Reuland .480M
TE Hayden Smith .48M
WR Santonio Holmes 12.5M
WR Stephen Hill 1.1M
WR Jeremy Kerley .6M
WR Chez SChillins .8M
T D'Brickshaw Ferguson 10.7M
T Vladimir Ducasse .8M
T Austin Howard .8M
G Matt Slauson 1M
C Nick Mangold 9.1M
OL Caleb Schlanderaff .555M
OL Edward Gates .555M
DE Quinton Coples 2M
DE Muhammad Wilkerson 1.9M
DT Kenrick Ellis .7M
DT Damon Harrison .482M
DL Mike Devito 2.5M
ILB David Harris 13M
ILB Demario Davis .66M
LB Nick Bellore .56M
LB Ricky Sapp .480M
CB Antonio Cromartie 10.75M
CB Kyle Wilson 2M
CB Aaron Berry .65M
CB Ellis Lankster .63M
S Josh Bush .506M
S Antonio Allen .5M
S LaRoy Landry 2M
P Robert Malone .555M
K Nick Folks 1.85
Total salary including dead money approx 116.4M 37 players under contract approx 12-14M in cap space remains. rework the contacts of Mangold and Ferguson to be more Cap friendly the net two years.
Jets trade Revis to the Cowboys 1, 2. Why? This assumes that Revis and the Jets can not reach an agreement for an extension prior to the draft. Jerry Jones loves flashy picks and will find a way to reward Revis and Revis will like playing indoors for "America's Team". A security blanket is provided to the Cowboys. If Revis signs an extension with the Cowboys the Jets get the Cowboys 2014 2nd round pick. If Revis does not sign and goes free agent then if Revis plays less than 50% of cowboy defensive snaps they get the Jets first round Pick in 2014 or if Revis plays 50% or more of the snaps and goes free agent after 2013 the Cowboys get the Jets 2014 second round pick.
Jets trade Tebow to the Jaguars 5/2 There are no Sure thing QB's this year, the Jags trade a low pick for Tebow to provide insurance and stability for whoever they draft
The Following Trades occured during draft day. Draft picks were made for all teams except the jets through an automated system that weighs team needs vs talent (it's not perfect but it's fair). (simulator courtesy of Drafttek).
After each trade, or Jets pick, the simulation was rerun in order to reflet the actions taken (not an easy process by any means). Again, this is not perfect, but it was the only way to be impartial as to who was and who was not available at any given time. However, I did over ride the program a time or two for picks that made no sense at all.
Jets trade down 1/13 to Ravens 1/26 for 1/26, 2/26, 3/26. Now some of you are yelling, You can't trade down with Teo on the board, and the only way I did was for a first, 2nd and third. Actually had I known Teo would still be available I wouldn't have traded Revis and the other roster moves to make this a rebuilding project. But, 1 player wasn't gonna do it. Ravens were a perfect match since they're looking for a dominiating ILB to replace the aging Ray who'll be 38 next year. Teo won't be Lewis, but then again who would be? I don't know if the Ravens would consider Teo to be worth that much for Teo, but no way I trade down there without getting that value. In the end I flipped a coin and it came up do the trade.
Jets trade down 1/16 to Packers 1/25 for 1/25, 2/25 Packers needed a top line OT to protect Rogers, There was a projected run of OT's before the Packers pick.
Jets trade down 1/25 to Falcons 1/30 for 1/30, 3/30 Falcons want to jump ahead of the Broncos to nab a new Tight end to groom behind Gonzalez who will be 37 next year.
Chiefs Pick Geno Smith QB
Jaguars Pick Matt Barkley QB
Eagles pick Luke Joeckel OT
Raiders pick Bjoern Werner DE/OLB
Panthers pick Star Lotuelei DT
Titans pick Jarvis Jones OLB/DE
Chargers pick Dee Milliner CB
Lions pick Sam Montgomery DE/OLB
Browns pick Damontre Moore DE/OLB
Cardinals Pick Taylor Lewan OT
Saints pick Jonathan Hankins DT
Dolphins Pick Keenan Allen WR
Jets Trade to Baltimore. Baltimore picks Manti Teo ILB
Bills Pick C.J. Mosley DE/OLB
Rams pick Berkevious Mingo DE/OLB
Cowboys traded to Jets. Jets Traded to Greenbay. Greenbay selects Jake Matthews OT
Redksins traded to Rams. Rams pick Eric Fisher OT
Buccaneers Pick Jonathan Banks CB
Vikings select Jessie Williams DT
Seahawks select Tavon Austin WR
Steelers select Chase Thomas OLB
Bengals select Barrett Jones C
Giants select Lane Johnson OT
Colts select John Jenkins DT
Packers traded to jets. Jets traded to Atlanta. Atlanta selects Tyler Eifert TE
Ravens Traded to Jets. Jets select Chance Warmack
Broncos select Zach Etz TE
Texans select Eric Reid S
Bears select DJ Fluker T
Falcons traded to jets. Jets select Alex Okafor OLB.
Patriots select Robert Woods WR
49ers select Sheldon Richardson DT.
Chiefs select Xaiver Rhodes CB
Jaguars select Dion Jordan DE/OLB
Eagles select Jonathan Cooper G
Raiders traded to Bengals. Bengals select Giovani Bernard RB
Panthers select Dendre Hopkins WR
Titans select Jackson Jeffcoat DE/OLB
Chargers select Brennan Williams OT
Lions select Dallas Thomas OT/G
Browns lost pick to 2012 supp draft.
Cardinals select Ryan Nassib QB
Saints Forfeited due to bounty
Dolphins select Ezekiel Ansah DE
Jets select Larry Warford G
Bills select Dave Amerson CB
Rams select Justin Hunter WR
Cowboys traded to Jets. Jets select Jordan Poyer CB
Redskins select Kenny Vaccaro S
Buccaneers select Alec Ogletree ILB/OLB
Vikings select Tony Jefferson S
Seahawks select Khaseem Greene OLB
Steelers seelect Matt Elam S
Bengals select Nico Johnson ILB
Giants select Desmond Trufant CB
Colts traded to Dolphins. Dolphins select Corey Lemonier DE/OLB
Packers traded to Jets. Jets select Da'rick Rogers WR
Ravens traded to Jets. Jets select Sean Porter OLB
Broncos select Sharrif Floyd DT
Texans select Terrance Williams WR
Bears select Alvin Bailey G
Falcons select Kawann Short DT
Patriots select Logan Ryan CB
49ers select Cordarrelle Patterson WR
Chiefs select Robert Lester S
Jaguars slect Andre Ellington RB
Eagles select Khaled Holmes C
Raiders select Tyler Wilson QB
Panthers traded to 49ers. 49ers select Everett Dawkins DT
Titans selectd Oday Aboushi OT
Chargers select Shayne Skov ILB/OLB
Lions select Terry Hawhtorne CB
Browns select Kenny Stills WR
Cardinals select Stedman Bailey WR
Saints select John Simon De/OlB
Dolphins select Joesph Randall RB
Jets select Bicarri Rambo S
Bills select Gerald Hodges OLB
Rams select Akeem Spence DT
Cowboys select Arthur Brown OLB
Redskins select Bennett Jackson CB
Buccaneers select Travis Long OLB/DE
Viking select Kevin Mintner ILB
Seahawks select Jordan Reed TE
Steelers select Bilidi Wreh-Wilson CB
Bengals select Stephan Taylor RB
Giants select Kyle LOng OT
Colts select Ricky Wagner OT
Packers select Jonathan Bostic ILB
Ravens traded to Jets. Jets select Mike Gillislee RB
Broncos select Montee Ball RB
Texans select Mike Gennon QB
Bears traded with Dolphins. Dolphins select Quinton Patton WR
Falcons traded to Jets. Jets select Tyler Bray QB
Patriots select Gabe Jackson G
49ers select Kevin Reddick ILB
Yes I whimped out after the third round, and about 8 hours working on it. so I guestimated The Jets last picks from 4-7
Jets Picks and round
1a Chance Warmack G,
1b Alex Okafor OLB
2a Larry Warford G,
2b Jordan Poyer Cb,
2c Da'Rick Rogers WR,
2d Sean Porter OLB.
3a Bicarri Rambo S,
3b Mike Gillislee RB,
3c Tyler Bray Qb
4 DJ Swearinger S
5 Xavier Nixon OT,
5B Mister Cobble DT
6 Abry Jones (falls more due to injury concerns).
7 Lutzenkirchen (falls due to the hip injury)
|12-04-2012, 07:46 PM||#13|
Join Date: Dec 2006
QB Mark Sanchez
QB Greg McElroy
QB Tyler Bray
RB Joe McKnight
RB Bilial Powell
RB Mike Gillislee
TE Dustin Keller
TE Josh Baker
TE Konrad Reuland
TE Hayden Smith
WR Santonio Holmes
WR Stephen Hill
WR Jeremy Kerley
WR Chez SChillins
WR Da'rick Rogers
T D'Brickshaw Ferguson
T Vladimir Ducasse
T Austin Howard
T Xavier Nixon
G Matt Slauson
G Chance Warmack
G Larry Warford
C Nick Mangold
OL Caleb Schlanderaff
OL Edward Gates
DE Quinton Coples
DE Muhammad Wilkerson
DT Kenrick Ellis
DT Damon Harrison
DT Mister Cobble
DL Mike Devito
DL Abry Jones
ILB David Harris
ILB Demario Davis
OLB Alex Okafor
OLB Sean Porter
LB Nick Bellore
LB Ricky Sapp
CB Antonio Cromartie
CB Kyle Wilson
CB Aaron Berry
CB Ellis Lankster
CB Jordan Poyner
S Josh Bush
S Antonio Allen
S LaRoy Landry
S Bicarri Rambo
S DJ Swearinger
P Robert Malone
K Nick Folks
The version without any trades (aka not as much fun but more realistic)
1 Manti Teo ILB
2 Larry Warford G
3 Mike Gillislee RB Or Sean Porter, I really like both guys a lot.
4 Tyler Bray QB I know this isnt the "in" pick to make, but aside from being a slight head case and being somewhat imobile I think he's worth a 3rd or 4th rounder to try to develop over a year or two on the bench. though I suspect he'll go back to college to try to boost his stock.
5 Xavier Nixon OT
6 Abry Jones DT
7 Lutzenkirchen TE
|12-04-2012, 08:09 PM||#14|
Join Date: Dec 2006
To address a few things mentioned in the thread this was moved from.
Yes I know the first mock has far too many trades, But it was done mostly for fun and only when I could justify the trades based on situations. The most questionable trade on both sides is probably the Teo trade down. 1) that I traded down from Teo and 2) that the Ravens would pay a 1st, second and third to trade up.
Admittedly in a real draft I wouldn't make that deal, especially if I hadn't traded Revis.
Bray is someone who in my opinion has the best arm in this draft, but he's got a few kinks that really knock him down. 1) he's got maturity questions. 2) while he's got the best deep ball in the draft he's inconsistant on the touch passes. 3) his mechanics aren't great which contributes to #2 and never having completed 60% in college and 4) he's immobile.
All that said I do belive if he stays in college and works out 2 of those issues he'll be a top 10 pick in 2014. Well worth the risk if he enters the draft in 2013 and make him a developmental pick and not start him at all for at least 1 season, maybe 2.
Guards are always undervalued in the draft. After all, a sure thing Guard in DeCastro fell to 24 in the 2012 draft because interior linemen aren't sexy picks. DeCastro isn't alone, Guards in most drafts fall to the late round, or later rounds.
Example, 2012 First Guard Taken DeCastro, pick #24
2011 first guard taken Pick #23 Danny Watkins
2010 first guard taken #17 Iupati
2009 no first round Guards
2008 No first round guards
2007 Grubbs #29
2006 Davin Joseph #23
2005 logan Mankins #32
2004 no first rounders
2003 no first rounders
2002 Kendall Simmons #30
in the last 11 drafts there have been only a total of 6 guards taken in the first round, and none in the top half of the first round. In fact only 1 guard was taken before the 23rd pick of the first round.
Now this doesn't include tackles that were moved to guard in the NFL. Rightly or wrongly, Guards are probably the least drafted position in the first round, aside from maybe Centers. Interestingly there have a been a couple centers in the last 11 drafts that were picked before the 16th pick.
Guards are the red headed stepchild of the first round.