[FreeMcneil]

Originally Posted by nexteyenate

He didn't lose his job to just any rookie though. He lost his job to Russell Wilson, who was one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year and took his team to the divisional round of the playoffs.

I'd sign up for a quarterback that is just a little bit worse than Russell Wilson.

Hindsight is 20/20, no one expected Wilson to be this good, and he had the same weapons Matt Flynn had and Flynn even with time spent learning from Rodgers in GB could not elevate himself from being a back up.

But somehow he is going to come to the Jets who don't have the talent that Seattle has and turn things around?

It's not going to happen...JMO

[LAJet]

Broadway 4
Outstanding cap analysis like always

[Section 227, Row 5]

Originally Posted by Zuckpsu

Call me crazy, but I don't think we should draft a QB in the first 4 rounds this year, or bring in any QB via free agency for more than 1 year. This jets team will not be a playoff contender next year..too many holes. It's time for this franchise to stop chasing players as a "quick fix" measure. Fill holes at OL, OLB, RB, S, TE while riding things out with current WR corps in 2013. If Sanchez/McElroy/1yr fa QB can't get it done, then use 1st rd pick in 2014 for QB and 2nd rd pick for wr.

You nailed it, dude.

[Hobbes3259]

Originally Posted by FreeMcneil

Hindsight is 20/20, no one expected Wilson to be this good, and he had the same weapons Matt Flynn had and Flynn even with time spent learning from Rodgers in GB could not elevate himself from being a back up.

But somehow he is going to come to the Jets who don't have the talent that Seattle has and turn things around?

It's not going to happen...JMO

Finally.......

[Bills Over Jets]

Originally Posted by Realistic Jets Fan

Fitzharvard is even worse than Sanchez, McElroy or Simms

arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL not named Tebow

That's absolutely absurd. Do you realize how dumb you sound? Lol. Here's his stat line from this season:

60.6% completion, 3400yds passing, 24tds 16ints and 83.3 QBR.

Worst QB in the nfl? LOL.

[HardHitta]

Originally Posted by Bills Over Jets

That's absolutely absurd. Do you realize how dumb you sound? Lol. Here's his stat line from this season:

60.6% completion, 3400yds passing, 24tds 16ints and 83.3 QBR.

Worst QB in the nfl? LOL.

Fitzpatrick isn't great but he's much better then Sanchez. Sanchez wouldn't be able to eclipse the 60% completion mark if his life depended on it.

[legler82]

Does David Lee mean a Tarvaris Jackson reunion?

[MexicanJet]

Originally Posted by legler82

Does David Lee mean a Tarvaris Jackson reunion?

Oh god, I hope not.

[CasinoBlitz]

Originally Posted by ajax

Vick wouldn't even be able to finish the season. Look up his previous years, he turns it over like Sanchez & he's injury prone. He's losing his legs & his arm isn't what it used to be.

His OL was not good but he's also an idiot who holds onto the ball way too long. Imagine Big Ben but with a lot less skills. Vick from a few years ago provides everything you're talking about. Not this broken Vick that can't even stay on the field.

We'll just have to agree to disagree here. I think a change of scenery with a decent OL gives Vick a chance to be a top 15-20 QB in this league for at least the short term. Vick took an absolute beating this year with that awful offensive line. He was never put in a position to succeed.

I've never been a "Vick guy." I always thought that while he was exciting to watch, he was vastly overrated in Atlanta and his comeback tour in 2010 with Philly. But out of the available guys out there, I think he's the one with the most playmaking capability. He's at least shown he's capable of making big plays down the field with his arm and in the running game. As he gets older, he's not as much of a threat with his legs as he once was, but I've seen him chew the Giants' secondary over the past few years with some explosive performances, particularly in the passing game.

He's never going to be that accurate drop back passer with great field vision and decision making that we all long for. But I firmly believe he can still threaten defenses with his arm and legs better than any of the other available suggestions out there (Alex Smith, Matt Moore, Flynn, Tavaris, etc.)

Unfortunately, according to Schefter, it appears we won't get a chance to see it through. I just don't know how you expect to win as a Jets fan with a guy like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn as your QB. A guy like that can only take you so far and doesn't lose games for you but can seldom win games for you.

Especially with the declining talent on defense, where it'd be extremely difficult to duplicate the 2010 run of completely shutting down Peyton, Tom and Big Ben, do you really see us ever threatening teams like Denver, New England, or Pittsburgh while Manning, Brady, and Big Ben are still playing? I can't even see us really threatening teams like Baltimore and Flacco or San Diego and Rivers (a new era without Norv Turner) or Indy and Luck if we have a guy like Smith or Flynn as our QB.

Originally Posted by nexteyenate

He didn't lose his job to just any rookie though. He lost his job to Russell Wilson, who was one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year and took his team to the divisional round of the playoffs.

I'd sign up for a quarterback that is just a little bit worse than Russell Wilson.

Also, I'm sorry but I just can't agree that Matt Flynn lost his job to "one of the best QB's in the league."

People do realize that Seattle had the 29th ranked passing offense in the league (only one ahead of the 30th ranked Jets with the pitiful Sanchez/Sparano combo)? Seattle average 202 yards per game through the air while the Jets average 198 YPG.

Seattle got to the playoffs the way the Jets did early on with Sanchez - excellent defense and great running game. Seattle had the #3 ranked rushing attack in YPG and #6 ranked rushing attack in terms of yards per carry. They had the #1 ranked defense in terms of points per game, giving up only 15 PPG.

The big differences between Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez are this: Wilson doesn't turn the ball over consistently and Sanchez does (INT, fumbles). Russell Wilson is a running threat and Mark Sanchez is not. Wilson has some balls and doesn't panic or get flustered, Sanchez folds like a tent and runs from pressure like a little girl.

If you watched Russell Wilson enough this year, you'd realize how overrated his rookie season was. I'll give him credit for taking care of the ball and not being afraid of the big moment by remaining calm, but he's not "one of the best QB's in the league."

How many times does Russell Wilson drop back, can't really decipher the defense, and just scrambles around behind the line of scrimmage and then wait for his WR's to play sandlot ball or just keeps it himself and runs for a gain? Way too often. Even that great comeback against Atlanta, he dropped back and just ran around behind his offensive line until his WR's ad-libbed against the Falcons defense. He really does not excel at dropping back and reading the defense like a traditional QB.

Russell Wilson gets way too much credit for that team's success. Marshawn Lynch and that defense were the catalysts for that Seahawks team all season long. Andrew Luck did a hell of a lot more for his team than Wilson. So did RG3.

[CasinoBlitz]

sorry - double post

[Mangolden Showers]

Originally Posted by CasinoBlitz

I'm sorry but I just can't agree that Matt Flynn lost his job to "one of the best QB's in the league."

People do realize that Seattle had the 29th ranked passing offense in the league (only one ahead of the 30th ranked Jets with the pitiful Sanchez/Sparano combo)? Seattle average 202 yards per game through the air while the Jets average 198 YPG.

Seattle got to the playoffs the way the Jets did early on with Sanchez - excellent defense and great running game. Seattle had the #3 ranked rushing attack in YPG and #6 ranked rushing attack in terms of yards per carry. They had the #1 ranked defense in terms of points per game, giving up only 15 PPG.

The big differences between Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez are this: Wilson doesn't turn the ball over consistently and Sanchez does (INT, fumbles). Russell Wilson is a running threat and Mark Sanchez is not. Wilson has some balls and doesn't panic or get flustered, Sanchez folds like a tent and runs from pressure like a little girl.

If you watched Russell Wilson enough this year, you'd realize how overrated his rookie season was. I'll give him credit for taking care of the ball and not being afraid of the big moment by remaining calm, but he's not "one of the best QB's in the league."

How many times does Russell Wilson drop back, can't really decipher the defense, and just scrambles around behind the line of scrimmage and then wait for his WR's to play sandlot ball or just keeps it himself and runs for a gain? Way too often. Even that great comeback against Atlanta, he dropped back and just ran around behind his offensive line until his WR's ad-libbed against the Falcons defense. He really does not excel at dropping back and reading the defense like a traditional QB.

Russell Wilson gets way too much credit for that team's success. Marshawn Lynch and that defense were the catalysts for that Seahawks team all season long. Andrew Luck did a hell of a lot more for his team than Wilson. So did RG3.

Not true.

Luck weeks 1-8 = 1.17 Pass-TD per game

Wilson weeks 1-7 = 1.14 Pass-TD per game

pretty even so far...

Since week 10:

Wilson: 65.7% Comp Pct, 223.5 pass-yds, 2.2 TD/0.4 INT (5.5 games)

Luck: 51.3% Comp Pct, 254.1 pass-yards, 1.6 TD/1.4 INT (7 games)

Not even close.

On the season Wilson had 3 more TD's, 10 less interceptions, and about 10% higher completion percentage than Luck. He had more TD's despite about 33% less passing attempts!

Talk about sandlot ball? Luck is the one who is gunslinging the ball downfield to the same top targets whether they are open or not. Wilson reads defences, goes through his reads, and is very accurate.

I do think Luck is going to be great and there is a method to the madness as far as his style of chucking downfield goes but Wilson hit his stride mid-season and just took off whereas Luck started to struggle and did not show signs of his play going to the next level until the last couple weeks (less turnovers, more near misses on big plays, etc.)

Bottom line, Russel Wilson had a better season than Andrew Luck. He deserves ROTY. He deserves all the credit he's getting, its long overdue.

[Ben Had]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

Being creative means one of two things: either finding suckers to play for less money than they could get elsewhere or doing a lot of fudging on the cap that pushes money that would be in 2013 out to 2014 and 2015.

2013 is a real mess to sort out. 2014 is not, at least not yet. It's close to a mess but it's easy to see where really sound work this year will make next year more manageable.

In a nutshell the problem with the cap this year is that the best way to loosen up the current cap is to turn salary in 2013 into a bonus that then is prorated over the life of the player's contract, only coming due in the last year of the contract or when the player leaves the Jets, which ever comes first.

To get real cap savings out of that process you need players who have a high salary this year and also several years left on their contract.

As an example, a player making $11 million this year with 4 years left on his contract could give the Jets more than $7.5 million in current cap savings. He'd do that by converting $10+ million of his current salary into a roster bonus, which would prorate over the 4 remaining years of the contract at $2.5 million a year. So the Jets would trade a $10 million hit on the cap this year for a $2.5 million hit each year for the next 4 seasons.

On this year's cap there are 7 players making more than $5 million in salary. Two of them, Bart Scott and Calvin Pace are already being released before we get into the area of reworks. They'll provide no help in increasing that 10 to 12 million cap figure because they already helped in getting it down to that level.

Another of them, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, has already done a couple of reworks for the Jets. He has a current year salary of $7.25 million and a cap figure of $10.716 million. His deal runs until 2017 though so there is a lot of time to prorate the bonus money over. Let's say he agrees to take vet minimum for the year and receive the balance of his $7.25 million salary as a bonus.

D'Brick is in his 8th season in 2013. His minimum salary is $840K for the season. So he gets vet minimum salary for the year and the remaining 6.41 million is prorated from 2013 to 2017 at $1.282 million a season. He also has another $750K bonus due but I'll leave that out for now since it is included in his overall cap number and we're just going to look at old cap figure vs new cap figure.

D'Brick on the old cap number was costing the Jets $10.716 million in cap space this year. Now he's costing them $5.128 million less. The Jets have gained $5.128 million in cap space on the restructure. It looks good for 2013.

Here are D'Brick's cap figures for the remainder of his contract before the rework:

2013 - $10.716M
2014 - $10.417M
2015 - $10.417M
2016 - $12.825M
2017 - $13.025M

The numbers are scary high but really he's not going to collect 2016 and 2017. The Jets will either rework him for a real pay cut before that and a sizeable one or they will cut him. The cap will not interfere with the cut if that's what has to happen.

Here are the numbers if he's reworked in the way I described above:

2013 - $5.588M
2014 - $11.699M
2015 - $11.699M
2016 - $14.107M
2017 - $14.307M

The numbers got higher and worse than that it is much harder to cut D'Brick out after 2015 than it is now because there's going to be extra money from this rework that all comes due when the cut happens. The Jets ability to manage D'Brick's bloated cap figure moving forward is substantially impacted by the rework this season. He becomes harder to deal with at the same time that the Jets are in theory looking for cap space on their competitive teams in that time frame.

Ok, so whether we do the D'Brick rework or not we are now down to just 4 players that we can realistically gain chunks of cap space out of. Antonio Cromartie has just two years left on his deal including 2013 so reworking his $7 million in salary is going to give us about $3.2 million in space on the current cap. He'll be very expensive on the cap next year if we do that. His 2014 cap number is currently at $10.75 million, with almost none of it guaranteed.

After a rework his cap number is going to approach $14 million next season. It's hard to see where he doesn't just become a cut in that situation, since the Jets will be able to take a cap charge of about $4.4 million to cut him but will be on the hook for a bit under $14 million if they keep him.

So maybe the answer with Cromartie will be to trade him this year to get cap space. If the Jets can trade him by the date his $2.3 million roster bonus is due, that being March 16th last year, then they can realize up to $8.25 million in savings on the 2013 cap. If they have to pay the roster bonus and then deal him he is worth about $5.95 million in cap savings.

David Harris has two years left on his deal and a very high salary figure which is mostly guaranteed. Santonio Holmes has three years left on his deal and a very high salary figure which is guaranteed. Mark Sanchez? A nightmare to deal with given the guaranteed money and cap space involved.

if the Jets were operating in Tannenbaum mode this year they'd throw most of the problems onto future caps and have $25 million to work with for the year. They'd make 2014 and 2015 a strangling nightmare to work with. There was obviously no effective plan to deal with the possibility that the Sanchez window was going to implode the way it has.

We're lucky though. We got a very smart guy to help us work things out and he has a record of having the teams that he goes to improve over time until they hit the Super Bowl. I'm hoping he'll do that for us too.

Edit: as always the majority of the cap numbers I worked with in doing this came from nyjetscap.com. That's an amazing site and anybody who wants to work stuff out for themselves should check it out.

Excellent post

[MurrellMartin]

Nick Foles, Matt Moore or Tarvaris Jackson.

Dream on re: Vick, Flynn or Smith. Too expensive.

[Murrell2878]

Originally Posted by MurrellMartin

Nick Foles, Matt Moore or Tarvaris Jackson.

Dream on re: Vick, Flynn or Smith. Too expensive.

Nick Foles?

[jesterjetman]

6th round draft pick hidden talent (cant it be us for once)

[Jeti]

Geno the Jet

[Br4dw4y5ux]

Originally Posted by jesterjetman

6th round draft pick hidden talent (cant it be us for once)

That talent when it is there usually takes more than a season to come out.

Nobody in the organization is going to tie themselves to a 6th round pick until they are really certain he's got the goods. So the guy is going to have to fend mostly for himself the first year, with other QB's above him in the pecking order and with less access to resources than a lot of his competitors who have stakeholders in the organization.

A 6th round lottery ticket is something that might pay off for the Jets a year or two down the road if Marty Morhinweg or David Lee really liked what they saw and took the guy under their wing this year. It would also require the Jets not being in position to acquire a talented but flawed QB elsewhere that took the spotlight and held it for a season too long for the late round guy.

it's not a bad idea to bite on a guy in the 6th but it's very unlikely to produce anything more than a clipboard holder in 2013.

[Bellows1]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

it's not a bad idea to bite on a guy in the 6th but it's very unlikely to produce anything more than a clipboard holder in 2013.

You're saying were going to have a clipboard holder competition in training camp?

Honestly, after last year I think every QB on the roster will be re-evaluated in TC. Sanchez will have to be head and shoulders above whoever else is there to get the job again. Right now I think he's lost the job and really has to earn it back to get it.

[Hobbes3259]

Originally Posted by HardHitta

Fitzpatrick isn't great but he's much better then Sanchez. Sanchez wouldn't be able to eclipse the 60% completion mark if his life depended on it.

To view links in this forum your post count must be 10 or greater. Your post count is 0 momentarily.

Fcol.....

[3lixer.]

Reading that list of choices just made me throw up a little bit in my mouth.

Can we get Vinny Testaverde to come out of retirement just one more time?

Heck, I'd take Tom Tupa over some of those guys on the list.