[TheCoolerGlennFoley]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

It's not meaningless at all. Whether QB's bust more often or not is irrelevant when you look at the raw numbers that say 6th and 7th round picks start more games than 3rd/4th/5th round picks.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Without knowing offhand, I could see an argument made that more QB's are taken in the 6th and 7th round as fliers and thus making them more likely to compile stats. Not to mention 30% of those 6th round starts are Tom Brady alone which singlehandedly pumps that number up.

[Br4dw4y5ux]

Originally Posted by TheCoolerGlennFoley

I don't think that's necessarily true. Without knowing offhand, I could see an argument made that more QB's are taken in the 6th and 7th round as fliers and thus making them more likely to compile stats. Not to mention 30% of those 6th round starts are Tom Brady alone which singlehandedly pumps that number up.

Think about it though. Yeah 30% of the 565 6th round starts are Brady. But no QB selected in the 3rd round since 1994 has started more than 83 games in his career. No QB taken in the 4th round has started more than 90. No QB taken in the 5th round has started more than 18.

Here's another breakdown:

Games started by round since 1994 - top 3 QB's

1st - Peyton Manning 222, Kerry Collins 180, Donovan McNabb 167
2nd - Drew Brees 167, Jake Plummer 136, Tony Banks 78
3rd - Brian Griese 83, Matt Schaub 80, Josh McCown 33
4th - Aaron Brooks 90, David Garrard 76, Kyle Orton 69
5th - A.J Feeley 18, John Skelton 17, Mike McMahon 14
6th - Tom Brady 173, Matt Hasselbeck 152, Marc Bulger 95
7th - Gus Frerotte 94, Ryan Fitzpatrick 66, Matt Cassell 62

You see what happened there? After the 2nd round the names you recognize started to dwindle until the 6th and then suddenly you see Brady, Hasselbeck and Bulger. All at low expense for the teams that pulled the trigger on them. Those guys weren't high priority they were just a really nice plum that dropped into the hands of the patient, who waited them out and got rewarded.

[wewantsapp]

I'm definitely on the Ryan Nassib bandwagon in the 3rd round.
If he's availabe when we pick, - nothing would make me happier than to hear his name called.

[wildaces]

When all is said an done, I believe Glennon will be best of class. I also really like Nassib, but his offensive scheme scares me. Smith/Barkley are top 2 quarterbacks in this draft, but I don't believe they are the top 2.

When I watch Glennon in some you tube videos, he appears to be the most ready, but will need to work on his accuracy. His pocket pressence, and foot work appear to be impeccable. He is a true pocket passer, and I don't know if he will be able to extend plays.

Just my two cents.

[wildaces]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

The only way the Jets should take a QB in this draft is if they have changed the GM before they do it. If they take a high-pick QB and then fire Tannenbaum the guy picked will be an orphan and it will likely add two years at least to the Jets search for a QB and the rebuild.

The guys I would take a shot at in this draft are:

Early 2nd: Geno Smith
6th or later: Landry Jones, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson

Wilson is getting a lot of press right now but his long throws are often wobbly, not even close to a tight spiral. His arm strength is nothing special at all despite the scouting reports to the contrary. He plays almost exclusively out of the shotgun which means the rush is always in front of him and he has a better vision of the field. He takes a lot of sacks anyway and he throws balls into coverages that should not be tested. He's like a lot of the QB's in this draft, a gunner out of the shotgun whose bread and butter is the slant and who is questionable outside of that realm.

If Aaron Murray declares I might take a shot on him early in the 2nd.

Glennon may not make it out of the first round, but definitely not out of the 2nd round. Wilson is a 1st round prospect, not that I agree with that, and Jones is a 2-3 round prospect.

Really 6-7th round?

That being said, I would take Glennon with our 1st, and not look back. If he busts, he busts, but he appears to be best in class (true QB, and not a newton/griffin type).

[TheCoolerGlennFoley]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

Think about it though. Yeah 30% of the 565 6th round starts are Brady. But no QB selected in the 3rd round since 1994 has started more than 83 games in his career. No QB taken in the 4th round has started more than 90. No QB taken in the 5th round has started more than 18.

Here's another breakdown:

Games started by round since 1994 - top 3 QB's

1st - Peyton Manning 222, Kerry Collins 180, Donovan McNabb 167
2nd - Drew Brees 167, Jake Plummer 136, Tony Banks 78
3rd - Brian Griese 83, Matt Schaub 80, Josh McCown 33
4th - Aaron Brooks 90, David Garrard 76, Kyle Orton 69
5th - A.J Feeley 18, John Skelton 17, Mike McMahon 14
6th - Tom Brady 173, Matt Hasselbeck 152, Marc Bulger 95
7th - Gus Frerotte 94, Ryan Fitzpatrick 66, Matt Cassell 62

You see what happened there? After the 2nd round the names you recognize started to dwindle until the 6th and then suddenly you see Brady, Hasselbeck and Bulger. All at low expense for the teams that pulled the trigger on them. Those guys weren't high priority they were just a really nice plum that dropped into the hands of the patient, who waited them out and got rewarded.

I agree with you and my last post on the 2nd page sums up how I feel about developmental QB's in the middle rounds.

With that said, it's a separate argument saying you wouldn't take Glennon or Tyler Wilson before the 6th.

[blackssmagic]

Originally Posted by TheCoolerGlennFoley

Unfortuantely there isn't a Big Ben every year, and I think that goes more to Bradwaysucks point. These days you're probably going to have at least 5 QB's taken in the first 2 rounds, whether they deserve to be or not. The relative strength of a class will push guys up but as we saw last year, rarely down.

Look at the previous Super Bowl QB's of the last 10 years. It's guys taken in the first round, Brees who was the 1st pick of the 2nd round, Tom Brady, and veterans on at least their second team. The developmental guys taken later have panned out in terms of being legit NFL starting QB's. But that's not what will actually get you to the Super Bowl, especially with the way the league is today.

I think Andy Dalton is a good player. Would be an immediate upgrade over Sanchez and is probably maybe not a top 12 QB but in that next tier. But is he going to beat the Brady's & Roethlisbergers & Mannings and Rodgers? I tend to doubt it.

So if that's what a guy like Nassib develops into then great. And on a team like the Jets if you give him a well above average defense you might have a shot. But you can make the argument it makes more sense to stockpile your team with talent and either wait for the chance to take a guy with the potential to be a top tier QB or go with a vet.

.

See thats just it, I am only talking about physical attributes. Size, strength, ability to move etc. Is glennon that guy. If so fuck it and pull the trigger

[Br4dw4y5ux]

Originally Posted by TheCoolerGlennFoley

I agree with you and my last post on the 2nd page sums up how I feel about developmental QB's in the middle rounds.

With that said, it's a separate argument saying you wouldn't take Glennon or Tyler Wilson before the 6th.

I think what the numbers clearly say is that high in the 1st round is where you want to go fishing for a QB. There isn't any reason to go looking in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds. You're just not going to find a Hall of Fame QB there. The one guy who might be good enough who was taken there is Schaub and he's not getting there with the team that took him.

Really I don't think the Jets should be looking at anybody but Geno Smith in this draft. None of the other guys looks like they'll be great at the next level. Even Smith is iffy.

It's just not a year to take a QB and pretending that it is will just cost the Jets a draft pick and more lost seasons in my opinion.

[TheCoolerGlennFoley]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

I think what the numbers clearly say is that high in the 1st round is where you want to go fishing for a QB. There isn't any reason to go looking in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds. You're just not going to find a Hall of Fame QB there. The one guy who might be good enough who was taken there is Schaub and he's not getting there with the team that took him.

Really I don't think the Jets should be looking at anybody but Geno Smith in this draft. None of the other guys looks like they'll be great at the next level. Even Smith is iffy.

It's just not a year to take a QB and pretending that it is will just cost the Jets a draft pick and more lost seasons in my opinion.

Russell Wilson has a chance to be the exception but I agree with you in theory that the evidence is pretty overwhelming that if you're not taking a QB in the first two rounds you're better off taking a flier at someone in the 6th or 7th.

However, I don't agree that Smith is the only QB worth taking in the first two rounds. There are a ton of holes on the team but if a Wilson or Glennon was to be available with our second round pick (extremely unlikely), I don't think it would be a bad pick.

[Br4dw4y5ux]

Originally Posted by TheCoolerGlennFoley

Russell Wilson has a chance to be the exception but I agree with you in theory that the evidence is pretty overwhelming that if you're not taking a QB in the first two rounds you're better off taking a flier at someone in the 6th or 7th.

However, I don't agree that Smith is the only QB worth taking in the first two rounds. There are a ton of holes on the team but if a Wilson or Glennon was to be available with our second round pick (extremely unlikely), I don't think it would be a bad pick.

There are something like 15 teams looking for a QB this off-season. If Wilson or Glennon is available in the mid 2nd round it will be because the logic machine that is the entire NFL have all passed on them once, despite needing a QB in many cases, and then all the bad teams will have passed again before the Jets pick.

I wouldn't touch a QB on the 46 pick in this draft. Too much investment for too little likely return. It would be arrogant to assume that I was right and the rest of the NFL was wrong and invest that value anyway.

In the 6th round that's a sniping pick and I see about a half dozen guys I'd grab there if they fell. Most of them won't. Maybe all of them won't but if somebody like Glennon or Jones or Wilson falls to the 188 I grab him. Those guys are all much better prospects than Greg McElroy was.

You remember the Apollo 13 line about dealing with what you have?

"You're telling me what you need. I'm telling you what we have."

That's the way the Jets should approach the QB's in the draft this year. If they get lucky and Smith falls to their pick in the 1st they should seriously consider taking him if they're willing to invest the resources necessary to make the pick a good chance to succeed. If they can finagle their way to an early 2nd round pick by trading back some and somebody the new offensive coordinator is sure he can develop is there then that's a real option.

Otherwise pass on all the question marks and jump back in again if a particularly attractive question mark gets down to them in the 6th round. The Jets have a lot of holes. To borrow another Apollo 13 line: "Let's not make things worse than they are already by guessing."

[Harpua]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

There are something like 15 teams looking for a QB this off-season. If Wilson or Glennon is available in the mid 2nd round it will be because the logic machine that is the entire NFL have all passed on them once, despite needing a QB in many cases, and then all the bad teams will have passed again before the Jets pick.

I wouldn't touch a QB on the 46 pick in this draft. Too much investment for too little likely return. It would be arrogant to assume that I was right and the rest of the NFL was wrong and invest that value anyway.

In the 6th round that's a sniping pick and I see about a half dozen guys I'd grab there if they fell. Most of them won't. Maybe all of them won't but if somebody like Glennon or Jones or Wilson falls to the 188 I grab him. Those guys are all much better prospects than Greg McElroy was.

You remember the Apollo 13 line about dealing with what you have?

"You're telling me what you need. I'm telling you what we have."

That's the way the Jets should approach the QB's in the draft this year. If they get lucky and Smith falls to their pick in the 1st they should seriously consider taking him if they're willing to invest the resources necessary to make the pick a good chance to succeed. If they can finagle their way to an early 2nd round pick by trading back some and somebody the new offensive coordinator is sure he can develop is there then that's a real option.

Otherwise pass on all the question marks and jump back in again if a particularly attractive question mark gets down to them in the 6th round. The Jets have a lot of holes. To borrow another Apollo 13 line: "Let's not make things worse than they are already by guessing."

Name those 15 teams looking for a QB this offseason. I want to see your thought process played out all the way, not just throwing around a random number.

[laxin]

Originally Posted by Harpua

Name those 15 teams looking for a QB this offseason. I want to see your thought process played out all the way, not just throwing around a random number.

Yeah I was just about to say this until I scrolled down... I can think of 5 teams that would need a QB- ARI, OAK, PHI, KC and us.

And of those 5 I can definitely see 2 sticking with something on their roster (Foles) or signing a vet in FA.

[Jetsfan 128099]

I don't post here often, but I only see 7 teams looking for a
QB in the draft including us.

Chiefs: Cassel has proven nothing, and this team isn't winning anymore games with Quinn behind center.

Jaguars: Henne is not the answer, and Gabbert doesn't show a lot of promise when he's in action.

Raiders: I think Palmer will start next year, they might be looking for someone to learn behind him for a year. (Probably not, they are the Raiders )

Chargers: Rivers looks like he's on the wrong side of 30, and with a new Head Coach coming into town he may want his own guy. Not saying Rivers won't start next year, but they may draft someone to watch him struggle and learn from it e.g. Montana watching DeBerg.

Cardinals: Self-explanatory, Skelton sucks and so does Lindley

Jets: I think we will have a better idea after these next two games. Not saying that Greg is the answer (although I am hoping), but with Tebow on his way out and Sanchez on the fence... I'd like to see us take a QB in the 5-6th round like talked about in the other threads.

Bills: I don't believe Fitzpatrick is going to help this team a lot more down the road. He playing OK this year (22 TD's, 15 INT's, almost 62% completion), but they may want to look for some to learn the system for a year (see Chargers). I don't see them taking a QB in Round 1, but maybe in the 2nd-3rd Round.

[sanchize]

Huge Cuse fan. Nassib was great this year. Made a lot of difficult throws. Still can throw a rocket to a running back 10 feet away from him. Had some poor games junior year, but really did not have many poor games his senior year. Would love to draft him with the right coach.

[Jeti]

Oakland won't draft a QB
Kansas City will
Jacksonville won't
San Deigo won't
Buffalo will
Philadelphia won't

I'm talking 1st 2 rounds

[wildaces]

Originally Posted by Br4dw4y5ux

Kellen Clemens was great value at our pick. Would have been a 1st if he didn't break his leg was the common wisdom.

Really if a guy gets down below the 36 the odds are extremely strong he's not going to be a quality starter. Like ridiculously strong.

It's not intuitive to think that QB's are any different than any other position in terms of distribution of value along the draft curve but really they are.

If you look at games started by QB's picked in the 7 round draft you get this enormous break towards the 1st round. Like 55%+ of the games started are 1st rounders. The next round is the 2nd round of course, but not just any 2nd rounders. The guys who start a lot of games in the NFL come in the first 4 picks of the 2nd round. The guys who will start some games but not be regulars for a long time start to trickle in after that.

You know what round comes next in the ranking? The 6th round. And while Brady is a big part of that he has started about a third of all the games that 6th rounders have started since 1994. You don't think about the other guys a lot but the same year Peyton Manning was taken another QB with 152 starts went in the 6th: Matt Hasselbeck. The year Brady was taken Marc Bulger went in the 6th. It's the sniping round after the 2nd, the one where you have a chance to pickup a player at a relatively low cost after you've tried to fill other holes earlier in the draft.

QB's taken from 1994 to 2012 in the 2nd round have started 747 NFL games to date. QB's taken in the 6th round have started 565. No other round after the 1st has seen more than 381 starts. There are more starts out of 6th and 7th round QB's combined in the 7 round draft era than out of 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders combined.

It's a very real phenomena.

Here's the breakdown of starts by QB's drafted from 1994 to 2012 by rounds:

1st - 3003 (55.2%)
2nd - 747 (13.7%)
3rd - 381 (7.0%)
4th - 375 (6.9%)
5th - 75 (1.4%)
6th - 565 (10.4%)
7th - 293 (5.4%)

I don't have UDFA's added in because I couldn't think of a way to get all the names easily. I got the drafts and starts off of nfl.com. Just adding Tony Romo and Kurt Warner to the lists would make the 6th/7th/UDFA dwarf the 3rd/4th/5th mid-round category.

1st round gets the majority of start mainly off of perception, and salaries paid for that pick. I wonder what the percentage would be of success to failure on a 3 year cycle for that round.

2nd round - 3rd round are developmental QB's that will get an opportunity if the QB in front of him goes down, in a 3 year cycle, barring the QB in front has 3 years left in him.

4th - 7th percentage would probably show they never got a shot to run the show. If Bledsoe didn't get hurt, do we even know who Brady is today?

It is all relative, and who gets an opportunity to shine.

[Mavericknyc1980]

If a guy like Nassib or Bray are their in rd 3 you take them and develop them.

[Jeti]

I don't want to rush for a QB though that's what we did with Nacho and look at how that turned out

Of course I'd want a Luck, Ryan, Griffin, Newton, Bradford or Stafford but I'd also take a Dalton, Tannehill, Wilson or Kaepernick if we surround them with the right type of talent

[xxedge72x]

What is everyone's thoughts on Geno Smith? He certainly looks good from what little I've seen of him...

[Jeti]

Originally Posted by xxedge72x

What is everyone's thoughts on Geno Smith? He certainly looks good from what little I've seen of him...

What system does he fit best in

Would we have to trade up for him

Is he the guy we want to build around

Honestly if he falls to our pick I'd take him