[kinggofg]

I was bored so I put together a monte carlo simulation in excel with all the teams still in it. The main assumption that most of you would disagree with is that I said there is a 50% chance of each team winning each remaining game. (except head to head where I obviously assummed two team couldn't win). I didn't allow for any ties. I tested a bunch of the winning simulations in the ESPN calculator, but I did not enter in every possible rule.

Based on that we have a 5% chance of making the playoffs.

If you assume we will win 8 games we have about a 1% chance

If you assume we win 9 games things are a bit more optomistic, we have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

[85inthehall]

Originally Posted by ArmandJ

But they helped out by losing to the Redskins. Cowboys should be extra motivated being only one game out of the division and wild card. And they play Pitt and Cincy back to back.

Jet fans are now Cowboy fans. The Cowboys have a lot of talent and when they put it together are a nasty team. If the Cowboys can beat Pitt and Cinci one of those teams is guaranteed a best case 9-7 record since they play head to head.

Jet fans are also Pat fans this week. Beating the Texans would put them 1 back of the #1 seed and home field. The Texans won't want that to happen thus they will have to plat out their schedule. Also you don't want the Colts beating you if you might face them in the playoffs. You don't want to give them any extra confidence that they can come into your house and take you out.

[Lon Chaney]

Originally Posted by MurrellMartin

We are not, I repeat, we are not going to the playoffs.

The Steelers will beat the Chargers, Bengals and Browns, maybe even Dallas, and Indianapolis will beat Tennessee and Kansas City, not to mention possibly a Houston team in Week 17 who may be resting the majority of their starters.

2-2 is all Pittsburgh and Indianapolis need to do in their final four games while we would have to go 4-0. Sorry, that's not going to happen with Mark Sanchez to begin with and if by some miracle it does, it still won't be enough and deservedly so. I'd rather not see my team get beat by 20-30 points on Wild Card weekend because other teams collapsed and they beat a handful of other shit teams.

While I tend to agree that the Jets won't make the playoffs, it is impossible to say with such definite declarations that "this team will beat that team" and so on.

Didn't New England lose at home to Arizona this season?

The Raiders beat Pittsburgh.

Indy beat GB.

KC beat NO.

Minnesota beat SF.

Upsets happen almost every week in the NFL. And who says that if the Jets get in that they would lose by 30 points on WC weekend? The got smacked down 2 years ago against the Pats but then beat them in the playoffs -- after going on the road to beat Peyton Manning.

[northernjet]

Originally Posted by Lon Chaney

While I tend to agree that the Jets won't make the playoffs, it is impossible to say with such definite declarations that "this team will beat that team" and so on.

Didn't New England lose at home to Arizona this season?

The Raiders beat Pittsburgh.

Indy beat GB.

KC beat NO.

Minnesota beat SF.

Upsets happen almost every week in the NFL. And who says that if the Jets get in that they would lose by 30 points on WC weekend? The got smacked down 2 years ago against the Pats but then beat them in the playoffs -- after going on the road to beat Peyton Manning.

I agree with you. The odds are very obviously against us getting into the playoffs, I don't think anyone would deny that. Once you have to start relying on other teams to lose you aren't in a great spot IMO. That being said, part of the enjoyment of sports is the "what ifs" that come up and the concept that anything can happen. Sure, odds are the Steelers and Colts go at least 2-2 the rest of the way and make the playoffs...but we don't know for sure. Maybe they go 1-3 or 4-0 or 0-4. We don't know until it happens. Hell, the Jets could drop the next four in a row for all we know and it's a completely irrelevant discussion.

The point is there is still a chance and that's part of the excitement. Giants fans last year were writing off their chances at making the playoffs at this time last year and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. And, no, I am not saying that is what's going to happen to us, just trying to illustrate that in the world of sports sometimes it's not the most obvious thing that happens.

Personally I don't get how someone can enjoy watching sports in a world of absolutes...unless your team is winning every year, I guess. The emotions, the ups and downs, the possibilities are all what make it worthwhile, IMO.

[Footballgod214]

Having a 10% +/- chance of making the playoffs played a large role in Rex's decision to play Sanchez this weekend.

Face it, we could probably win out with any QB we have on the roster, but then what?

Obviously Rex felt that Sanchez with 4 road playoff wins and an ability to play better in the playoffs than in regular season would probably be his best bet in the WC playoff round and possibly beyond.

That being said, if the POs become unattainable, then look for McElroy or Tebow to play out the season 'just because'.

[The Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by Footballgod214

Having a 10% +/- chance of making the playoffs played a large role in Rex's decision to play Sanchez this weekend.

Face it, we could probably win out with any QB we have on the roster, but then what?

Obviously Rex felt that Sanchez with 4 road playoff wins and an ability to play better in the playoffs than in regular season would probably be his best bet in the WC playoff round and possibly beyond.

That being said, if the POs become unattainable, then look for McElroy or Tebow to play out the season 'just because'.

Yeah, I think one more loss lands Sanchez on the bench. If the Jets are eliminated at 8-7, he will still start in Buffalo though I am sure.

[Jake]

Rapistberger back for the Steelers, probably ends what little chance we had. We'll see.

[Diddy]

Originally Posted by Jake

Rapistberger back for the Steelers, probably ends what little chance we had. We'll see.

Yep, though you have to think the Dolts can win at least 2 more games?

[Jake]

Colts need to go 1-3, with two of their remaining opponents being TEN and KC. They are playoff bound.

[Diddy]

Originally Posted by Jake

Colts need to go 1-3, with two of their remaining opponents being TEN and KC. They are playoff bound.

Don't underestimate Tenn, the Colts D has trouble stopping anybody.

[mudclods]

What about Baltimore? No one has mentioned them. Is there any scenario that the Jets could win a tiebreaker over them or what if it's several teams at 9-7?

Baltimore has the toughest remaining schedule with the Redskins, Broncos, Giants & Bengals. Though doubtful, it's not out of the realm for them to lose all 4 games.

[kerley11]

Originally Posted by mudclods

What about Baltimore? No one has mentioned them. Is there any scenario that the Jets could win a tiebreaker over them or what if it's several teams at 9-7?

Baltimore has the toughest remaining schedule with the Redskins, Broncos, Giants & Bengals. Though doubtful, it's not out of the realm for them to lose all 4 games.

I asked about this same thing a little bit earlier in the thread. If Baltimore loses out they would still own the tie breaker because they have 8 conference wins. The most the Jets can get is 7 if they win out.

[xxedge72x]

The fact that the Jets are the 8 seed in the AFC right now shows how bad the AFC in general has become.

[northernjet]

Originally Posted by xxedge72x

The fact that the Jets are the 8 seed in the AFC right now shows how bad the AFC in general has become.

Pretty much, yeah.

[Lon Chaney]

Originally Posted by Jake

Colts need to go 1-3, with two of their remaining opponents being TEN and KC. They are playoff bound.

I think that game against KC is at Arrowhead. Not an easy place for a rookie to go in and play.

[Lon Chaney]

Originally Posted by xxedge72x

The fact that the Jets are the 8 seed in the AFC right now shows how bad the AFC in general has become.

Yes and no.

The AFC is unquestionably down this year. But I think the real issue is just how much a good QB can mask all the other deficiencies on a team.

Teams that are struggling right now in the AFC have had below average to poor play from their QBs -- with the exception of Oakland who is just inept all around.

[Footballgod214]

Damn.

The team we're counting on to help propel us to the playoffs, the Cowboys, just suffered the loss of 2 starters. Their nose tackle crashed his car, killing one of their line backers. Nose tackle arrested for DUI. Guess he won't be of much help.

Here's to the Cowboys getting an 'emotional win' against the Bungles Sunday!

[AbdulSalam]

Brent was a starting NT, I don't think Jerry Brown was a starter however. Still a disaster. Drunk driving is REALLY REALLY FCKNG STUPID !!!

[LongTimeJetsFan]

Originally Posted by AbdulSalam

Brent was a starting NT, I don't think Jerry Brown was a starter however. Still a disaster. Drunk driving is REALLY REALLY FCKNG STUPID !!!

Especially when the NFL provides a fucking free driving service to all players during the season. There is never any excuse, even less so for NFL players. The guy deserves every bit of jail time he gets.

[BeastBeach]

Originally Posted by LongTimeJetsFan

Especially when the NFL provides a fucking free driving service to all players during the season. There is never any excuse, even less so for NFL players. The guy deserves every bit of jail time he gets.

I thought I read it wasn't free. In fact, I remember reading it was ridiculously overpriced.

Not that that takes away from the fact they should have used the service or called a cab. Just saying.

edit: found the article I read

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